I am working on a 10pip exit method, but I will use Shi Channel in 5 minutes to start posting exit methods as - Trading Systems

bmac 2006.01.25 08:21 #761

Hi,

Thanks a lot nina for your system, it is really good, i am working on exits too, wish we could start posting exit methods as the entry is really fine.

BTW i am long euro at 1.2285, first exit using R2 1.2308 second exit i will use shi channel in 5mins or R3, let`s see.

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nina 2006.01.25 08:42 #762

nina 2006.01.25 08:49 #763

mustbecrap:
hi,

another small point,

Pivots, what a load of crap, or so I thought, they were ignored by me until very recently, why did I get so many good trades reversing or stalling for no reason, daily and weekly pivots hold some of the keys to successful trades. And its by no mistake that Nina uses these in this system and in her trading.... And it rehighlights once again the importance of this very old tool.

yeah I know what some of you are thinking, what a dumb arse, why didn't I take note of this tool long ago... The holy grail, thats why.... I was searching for it, and a tool with a basic mathematical eqasion as pivots to me never rated my interest.... I am impressed an not surprised that nina uses pivots.

MBC, you know, there was a time when a wannabetrader called "Nina" told himself: "pivots are garbage, get rid of them, don't lose your time".

Well, I was a wannabetrader.

Nina

radicalmoses 2006.01.25 08:50 #764

Nina,

First of all thanks to you for being kind and generous with your system.

I think that your system will perform best if the exits are handled.

Now,, for any system to be profitable, its not the percentage wins/losses that is more important ( I feel some people here have tried a 10pip exit to be profitable over the long run). However I want to point out that even if you have 7winners and 3 losers,, the exact distribution of the win to losses is not certain. you could have 7 winners for 10pips and 3losers for 35pips and still in the end never make a dollar.

I think IMHO we should concentrate more on the risk/reward ratio.

As we have seen with your posts, the distribution of winning pips is random.

So we can never guess if our next trade is going to be 100pips+ or just 10pips or a loss.

However taking every trade as just a probability that its going to be profitable over a long run, what we can adjust is the risk to reward ratio.

So if we decide that a risk/reward ratio is 1:2, we can safely take an exit of 70pip win for a loss of 35pips S/l.

This way if winning % is higher we can catch those large moves and in the end those big wins will more than wipe out the losses and we can increase the equity.

I would like to suggest the following :

S/L 35pips at start of trade

When in profit of 30pips S/l at breakeven

TP = 70pips

This ofcourse is not hard and fast rule but if someone is looking for a more mechanical exit we should concentrate on a risk/reward ratio for exits.

As for me, I am starting out on your system,, I would be just be happy to get 30pips a day and quit. If I can average 500pips a month, I dont want to look anywhere else.

Again thanks Nina, and all the others who have taken time to share.

Just sharing my 2cents worth.

Nothing in trading is perfect, in the end its all a numbers game.

As I am writing this the cable and eur have made a huge move. I have closed the cable for 75pips.. MAN,, if I could get this kinda move even 2 times a week..!!lol

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nina 2006.01.25 09:06 #765

keris2112:
Hi all,

I guess I'll add my 2 pips worth...This is going to sound like a rant, but that's not my intention. Well, here goes....

By now, we should all understand how to enter using the CatFX50 entry signals. Entry isn't the problem. Money management and exits are the problem.

Nina posted her system, and I call it a system, because for her, it is a system. Based on her experience, she's able to take the good entries that CatFX50 provides and combine them with good money management and exits based on her Discretion. She may use Fibs, S/R, Pivots, and other TA to help determine when to exit, but in the end, she's using her experience to exit the trade. My point is that, for most people, CatFX50 will never be profitable in the long run. Most of the "systems" posted on any forum will never be long-term profitable. Why? Because most people don't know how to trade, they only know how to watch an indicator and do what the indicator says.

Please, nobody take offense at my post. I throw myself into that lump of 'indicator watchers'. I'm still a very new trader, but I'm learning that trading isn't about mechanical systems, it's about learning to trade. I said above that I believe most people will never be profitable with most of the "systems" posted on forums. The counter-side to that is that I think many of the "systems" posted on forums could be profitable, if everyone would just stop trying to make everything 100% mechanical, and use a little discretion. By discretion, I mean using trend lines, S/R, pivots, price patterns, and, most importantly, price itself, to make an educated decision as to what price might do next. Don't blindly follow an indicator just because the "system" says you're supposed to.

Here's another observation: The two deadlyist words for new traders (forex traders) are SYSTEM and "Expert Advisor". To a new trader, a system implies specific, mechanical rules for entry and exit, and hopefully position sizing. New people don't want to hear about discretion, they just want rules. I know, I've been there. EAs reinforce that by requiring us to have every entry and exit signal spelled out perfectly. They require rules. New "traders" don't learn to trade, they learn to become "filterers", adding more and more indicators to try to filter out the bad signals and keep the good ones. When their filters are "perfect", then they can create an EA. Well, that is, until the next "super system" comes along.

Sorry for getting off track. Getting back to CatFX50... as has been stated by others, the next step for the CatFX50 system is to find a way to exit profitably on a long-term basis. Just remember, the best exit to use more than likely won't be a purely mechanical one.

Ok, I'm done. You all have permission to yell at me if you want.

Keris

Hi, Keris!

"My point is that, for most people, CatFX50 will never be profitable in the long run. Most of the "systems" posted on any forum will never be long-term profitable. Why? Because most people don't know how to trade, they only know how to watch an indicator and do what the indicator says."

BINGO!!! You got it, buddy!

"I think many of the "systems" posted on forums could be profitable, if everyone would just stop trying to make everything 100% mechanical, and use a little discretion. By discretion, I mean using trend lines, S/R, pivots, price patterns, and, most importantly, price itself, to make an educated decision as to what price might do next. Don't blindly follow an indicator just because the "system" says you're supposed to."

BRAVO, again.

"New people don't want to hear about discretion, they just want rules. I know, I've been there. EAs reinforce that by requiring us to have every entry and exit signal spelled out perfectly. They require rules. New "traders" don't learn to trade, they learn to become "filterers", adding more and more indicators to try to filter out the bad signals and keep the good ones."

Let's make it simple and easy. That's my goal. I like that of "filterers".

You know, one big trader (an institutional trader) allowed me to see how he did it. He was trading without any chart: just the ticket.

"Getting back to CatFX50... as has been stated by others, the next step for the CatFX50 system is to find a way to exit profitably on a long-term basis. Just remember,the best exit to use more than likely won't be a purely mechanical one."

Right.

Nina

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manager 2006.01.25 09:17 #766

Please explain how to use Juice indicator. What parametrs to use and what does it show.

Thanks

nina 2006.01.25 09:24 #767

radicalmoses:
Nina,