Disbelief - It's luck not skill - page 2
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They won't come looking for u on a message board.Probably you go in the wrong circles.Need to be in the Maddoff /wall street contacts of crooks to meet them. OILFXPRO
So only crooks i.e. brokers and snake oil salesman make money
Now that I believe......
Forex Probabilities
When a beginning trader thinks about winning and losing in the forex market they will usually consider it some kind of luck. It usually it is at the start, but a seasoned trader should be focusing more on Forex Probabilities. As you more clearly understand the market, you will start to figure out that the "luck" mindset is not healthy to your trading success.
I want to talk a little about the different aspects of trading on probabilities. There are some requirements to be able to trade on probabilities. First of all you have to know what you are doing, at least at some level (which excludes the beginner trader). Second, you have to have tested your techniques and strategies so you know what you can expect in different market conditions. Third, you need to be able to control the emotions that throw the positive effects of forex probabilities out the window. If you can master these three things then you can start to "Trade on Probabilities".
There are also a couple of key elements you will want to know the rough probabilities for. Your Risk/Reward Ratio and your Win/Loss Ratio. Understanding what your Win/Loss ratio is on any particular strategy you are trading helps you trade more successfully over the long run. When you incorporate that with a positive Risk/Reward ratio will only help boost your profits. Let me explain with an example:
If I had a trading strategy that over the past 3 months has returned a 70% winning record, then I can safely expect that 7 in 10 of the trades I place will be winners as long as I have clearly defined entry and exit rules and I follow those rules. This might sound good to you, but you need to know the Risk/Reward ratio before you can determine if it is a solid system. If the losses are twice as big as the gains, then you will end up poorer at the end of the month for trading it. So a high probability strategy incorporates both W/L & R/R.
Sometimes your emotions and your mindset can get in the way of a profitable system. Lets say you find a strategy that is only 30% successful, meaning that you have lost 7 of every 10 trades using it. Most people would throw it out the window looking for a better system, but without knowing the R/R how can you know if it is profitable or not? What if the wins were 3 times the size of the average loser. Here is some Math:
10 Trades, 30% Wins
3 Wins at 90 pips each = +270 pips
7 Losses at 30 pips each = -210 pips
Total Net gain of 60 pips
This is just an example, but you can see that if you react emotionally to losing 70% of your trades by throwing the system out, you are rejecting a lot of potentially profitable trades. The easiest thing to do is only trade strategies that have both a positive Win/Loss record and a better than 50/50 Risk/Reward ratio. The hardest thing to do is find them.
The best thing you can do to eliminate the emotional problems related to probabilities is to view your trading success and failure based on a larger time frame. Looking at your wins each day or every trade will make it much harder to see the bigger picture. If you view your results per week or month then you can see more clearly what's working and what isn't. It is also imperative to keep a detailed trade journal about all your trades, so you will be able to look at each strategy separately to determine its effectiveness. But journaling is a whole other topic.
I hope this helps you begin to think about Forex Probabilities in a new light.
Good luck in your trading.
Forex Probabilities When a beginning trader thinks about winning and losing in the forex market they will usually consider it some kind of luck. It usually it is at the start, but a seasoned trader should be focusing more on Forex Probabilities....
Very good article on Forex probabilities
. A good combination of Risk/Reward ratio and Win/Loss ratio is the only way for a long term success. R/R is chosen by the trader, so it could be easily controlled. But W/L ratio is harder to tell and it can change during time and market conditions, so that's the hard part. It is easier to find and tune combinations of R/R and W/L ratios by creating and testing different automated systems.
Care to tell us who they are? Because I haven't found them yet!
Care to tell us who they are? Because I haven't found them yet!
hi
\I belive u man is luck also I believe no matter what u do still will lose in long term it is pure gamble and waste of time
hi\I belive u man is luck also I believe no matter what u do still will lose in long term it is pure gamble and waste of time
Hello hamy
I have a trade training course by a dr of finance who recently passed away.I do not share it on open forum but will share it only through email only.It has several hour long webinars that he will teach you his method of trading and how to spot a trend enter in correctly and scale in more positions and exit with profit and take a 100pip trend and make 400 pips out of it.It comes with template and indicators.You must not get bored with it and you must learn all that he is teaching you and when you finish you will look at trading a totally different way.If you want it send me a p,m with your address to send it.
listen to this I been losing even when iam hedge lol
forex is luck or just sucks been losing no matter how hard i tried is anyone wining consistency?!!
It could be the OILFXPRO system or something similiarOILFXORO
Forex is complicated highly volatile trading environment.Although there are only two choices to make up or down the factor of greed comes into play as to how much up and how much down.
Then there is the issue with the indicators.We all want an standalone indicator that will accurately tell us were the market is heading in the future but all an indicator can really do is report what is happening right now or in the past (lag).There are ma crossover indicators that still do not predict the futere but will give us a higher probability of what action will take place when it crosses.
I do not believe that trading takes alot of skill to accomplish success.You must have the correct tools in which to extract money from the market and that is the hardest part of the ordeal..finding good reliable indicators.Once you find the tools then a six year old can push the button when the time is right.
The problem is this was a closed in business when mt4 was created regarding market makers highly programmable trading platform thats indicators repaint themselves so often.Now you can get ecn mt4 and stp which takes out the market maker aspect but nothing serious has been done to address the fact that although there are 1000's of indicators available 97%of them repaint themselves.I have heard that this is lack of knowledge on the programmers side but I think this is what mt4 was designed for.Highly programmable mt4 security features on broker end.
Can get around this with the indicator correct code.The only problem is to find the right combination of code to unlock the tumblers in security lock and turn to open.