USDCHF has resistance at 1,2180. If it breaks it clearly, it should go to 1,2206.
I dont quite understand this sentence. If it breaks the 80 it can go 26 pips higher ... It is quite a short run that you predict there.
Anyway this friday and thursday should give more evidence on how well the us economy is doing.
We see more than 120000 new jobs on friday and investors will be tempted to believe that us has a soft landing approach. Over the course of time if this happens we should see
- a higher Euro until mid year 2007 ( one should not forget french elections where most definitly the high euro will play a role that this time will not be ignored by the ecb )
- a sideways trending pound since boe has almost reached the end of the rate hike cycle (one more hike is almost priced in already = 1.9700 level )
- a surprisinly weak swissy with switzerland not being the banking haven for runaway dictators anymore - swissy and euro will not so much move together like we saw 2006 with euro +11 % and swissy +8 % against the greenback
By March we should see 1.35 levels for the Euro 1.90 for cable 1.24 on the swissy
Have Fun !!
p.s. Watch the Yen closely this year if you manage to interpret Fukui ok you can make 1000 pips on gbp yen since I personally expect the carry trade yen bubble to burst this year. CAT FX 50 has become somewhat more reliable if applied to yen pound.
Next on usdchf is 1,2206. If it clears that, it will be set to go to 1,2273 as long as it holds above 1,2180.
Nina first time using this I got 68 pips on the pound. Could have gotten more but very very happy with the 68.
Cable could try to go to 1,9650 while below 1,9755.
Eurusd could try to go to 1,3219-04-3180 while below 1,3305.
Well, well, well. Happy new year 2007.
You are a master trader. Take care. It is not always like this.
Where has eurusd stopped its fall so far?
There went the gap
Thanks for the clearing !
Have fun !
p.s. Pound seems to be a little bit overbought so be careful danger lurks on the upperside.
one article I liked (Money Morning)
The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates on hold at the start of this month - perhaps an early Christmas gift for mortgage holders and the over-indebted.
But Mervyn King and his chums at the Monetary Policy Committee might be kicking themselves this morning. The Bank’s target inflation rate - the consumer price index (CPI) - grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in November, the highest since records began in November 1995.
Perhaps it would have been better for the Bank to play Scrooge ahead of the usual Christmas spending spree - because come January and February, an interest rate rise will be the last thing those struggling with post-Christmas spending hangovers need.
But unfortunately, it may well be exactly what they get...
Consumer price inflation stands at 2.7%, the highest since records began 11 years ago. But that’s not all. RPIX (which is the retail price index, excluding mortgage payments), is now at 3.7%, the highest level since March 1993.
RPIX was the Bank of England’s old inflation target. It included things the CPI doesn’t, like council tax, for example. Now these days, if CPI goes above 3%, or below 1%, the Bank has to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why. But back then, the letter-writing was triggered if RPIX moved beyond 1% of a central target of 2.5% - in other words, if we were still using the old inflation measure, Mervyn King would be having to get his pencil sharpener out.
Arguably, he would have wanted to avoid this. So it seems pretty fair to suggest that if we were still measuring official inflation using RPIX, interest rates would already be higher.
Now you can argue about which measure is more effective - but it does show just how important seemingly small tweaks in statistics can be. Use the old measure, and you’d have interest rates at 5.25% or more already - and perhaps the irrational exuberance in the UK property market wouldn‘t be quite so pronounced.
But regardless of statistical mucking about, you can’t avoid reality forever. There are plenty of things for the Bank to worry about in the latest inflation data. For a start, there’s the reasons behind the jump in the CPI. Up until recently, rising inflation was mainly driven by rising energy prices. But now, it’s being driven by - well, everything.
Food prices are now 5% higher than they were a year ago. Clothing and furniture prices, which have been falling for years, are now almost flat year-on-year. Utility bills are still rising, despite falling wholesale gas prices. And of course, there are the usual suspects, such as hairdressing, school fees (up a massive 14% on last year), and all the other things you can’t outsource to China, which continue to soar as they have been doing for a very long time now.
There wasn’t even any relief from falling oil prices. Even though petrol prices fell last month, they didn’t fall by even half as much as they did at the same time last year (when oil prices were easing off after surging in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina) - so that contributed to the upward effect on CPI. And Gordon Brown’s Pre-Budget Report tax top-up on petrol won’t help December’s CPI reading either.
But the biggest worry - for both employers and the bank - will be the Retail Price Index (RPI). This stood at 3.9%, the highest since 1998. Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, told The Telegraph: “Today’s figures make us even more convinced that interest rates will go up in February. Inflation needs to be squeezed out of the system but this is made difficult by the strength of money supply growth and the lack of spare capacity in the economy. What we don’t want to see is the 3.9% headline RPI form the basis for inflationary pay awards in the New Year.”
But to be fair to employees, it’s perfectly understandable that they expect to get pay rises in line with RPI, or at least RPIX. After all, rises in pension and benefit payments are calculated in line with RPIX, because it’s generally seen as a better measure of the cost of living. What would you prefer your next pay rise to be based on? CPI at 2.7% - or RPIX at 3.7%? We know which one we’ll be opting for.
And if non-militant private sector employees like ourselves can see the wisdom in looking for a genuinely inflation-matching pay rise, we imagine our unionised public sector peers will be thinking along the same lines.
MPs are talking tough about 2% pay increases this year (while asking for around a 66% rise themselves - but of course, we should remember that the rules we mere mortals have to live by don’t apply to them). But as plenty of unions have already pointed out, that’s a pay cut in real terms - even using the ‘inflation-lite’ CPI figure.
We await the outcome of the January pay round with great interest. Maybe we’re wrong, and after years of above-inflation pay hikes, public sector staff will be happy to take a cut. But we have a feeling that by playing it ‘safe’ on interest rates this month, the Bank has missed its last opportunity to deliver the short sharp shock that would have convinced us all that it’s serious about tackling inflation.
And that almost certainly means that, just as happened this year, interest rates will have to go higher in 2007 than anyone currently expects
How are you doing, mates?
Low so far on eurusd: 1.3180
I admit that you're the best.....
Well, I appreciate your commentaries about fundis. The sell off on cable today has been great, great, great.
I'd like to be the best my friend. Then I'd buy a nice house in Bali. Indonesia is the best place on earth to trade FOREX.
You make 10 pips there and it is like you made 100 in Paris.