Trading Strategies Based On Digital Filters - page 63
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Thank you very much for your explanations Simba and Clahn04 :-):-)
Simba, about the cycle being no more in sync, what do you mean by that?
Do you mean that when one cycle shows a trend upwards, then the price is actually moving downwards, or do you mean that both cycles are not in sync?No more in sync:I mean one points up(blue) the other points down(red)..so,take care..the phases of h4 cycles are up(Aqua letters in the pic),as I said,so the upmove should be expected to last a few more bars(NOTE:I SAID THIS a few hours ago
,the price continued to go up, and bars are H4 bars )..But the risk is high,so,JMHO,better wait until a new H4 cycle begins and start working on it from the beginning,when the risk is lower....
AND:Not all in life is cycles,take care of the fundamentals...Fed has announced a strong buyback program of US Debt,study what implications this has for liquidity and how this may help or hurt the dollar..1.3800/1.3870..If it happens,it will,PROBABLY,happen in this area
..Man today I am in the "Zone"
So,even if I personally believed a few hours ago that the most probable course was up,and I don`t believe anything serious can break the uptrend unless there are fundamental news or we reach the Area I indicated above...I think that the risk doesn`t compensate the potential rewards..so,I wait...if you didn`t make the money yesterday,today is too risky to do so..so,WAIT...beauty of H4 is that there is a cycle a week on average,so,you don`t need to trade everyday.
Simba
Unfocused,new business&fraternal love...what else you want?;)
Guys, please, this thread is losing the focus.
Linuxser,
Yes,this usually happens when people fixates on the arrows instead of the cycles, and doesn`t understand the jokes,mistakenly taking them as opportunities to exercise their freudian traumas in public .
People righteously ,and falsely,accusing others(Walander-btw,thanks for your posts-,Clahnn ,me...I have lost count already) of having commercial interests,doesn`t help much too....
In any case,Look at the positive sides:
1-it has been fun...Man,unbelievable,I was Skyping with friends and your audience must have increased exponentially,they are still laughing,I can`t anymore,my facial muscles hurt ...but they will sure bring more people to the festival and a few of them will stay as members.
2-At least there was some meat on the table ,somebody posting a PREDICTION,oh my God,a prediction,done with a Digital Filter...is a good advance on backtesting on CHIRP signals...at least for those interested in making money at Forex...I know you post predictions and analysis(usually successful ones) at the advanced thread of the Elite section,so,you understand what I mean and I know that you value what is needed to do so.
3-Somebody,had an unanswered question finally answered...marketmaker74...and dvarrin got some additional help on his cycles.
4-mladen and me had a moment of "fraternal "love
...well,you may not care,but for us is important(mladen will kill me when he reads this )
5-I got an idea for a new business "rentachartdotcom"That I can share with TSD for free....imagine,first,create a group of pro traders(you are invited ),then "share" their screens,I can imagine the ad:"being able to see what we see,trade what we trade,time your entries to the second ...no more stress in your trading,just sign Now...(with a deep resonant voice,and a couple of embedded hypnotic commands)
6-Now,on a serious note...I don`t know if you realize it or not,but the indicators and libraries posted by Rich are "state of the art",so,this thread technical quality is unrivalled in the World Wide Web of digital filter`s threads,hey let us have some fun from time to time ...please
7-Finally,we saw what an "amatour";)(yes,yes,I know it is amateur,but he described himself so well...think about the hidden meaning of the word he used..Freudian slip) engineer can do to advance the field of comedy to previously unreached heights...
8-Your post gives me the opportunity to invite you to our "secret society",if you are interested,just PM me with your pink finger measurements(you know..for the special ring that tells everybody that you belong to a secret society ...;) )
Linuxser,you know I appreciate and respect you,so,I give you my word that I will try to stay "quieter" and refrain myself...As I said before,this thread now is unrivalled in the digital filter`s category,and we already had our fun,so,It is time to be serious again....
Regards
Simba
Linuxser,
Yes,this usually happens when people fixates on the arrows instead of the cycles, and doesn`t understand the jokes,mistakenly taking them as opportunities to exercise their freudian traumas in public .
People righteously ,and falsely,accusing others(Walander-btw,thanks for your posts-,Clahnn ,me...I have lost count already) of having commercial interests,doesn`t help much too....
In any case,Look at the positive sides:
1-it has been fun...Man,unbelievable,I was Skyping with friends and your audience must have increased exponentially,they are still laughing,I can`t anymore,my facial muscles hurt ...but they will sure bring more people to the festival and a few of them will stay as members.
2-At least there was some meat on the table ,somebody posting a PREDICTION,oh my God,a prediction,done with a Digital Filter...is a good advance on backtesting on CHIRP signals...at least for those interested in making money at Forex...I know you post predictions and analysis(usually successful ones) at the advanced thread of the Elite section,so,you understand what I mean and I know that you value what is needed to do so.
3-Somebody,had an unanswered question finally answered...marketmaker74...and dvarrin got some additional help on his cycles.
4-mladen and me had a moment of "fraternal "love
...well,you may not care,but for us is important(mladen will kill me when he reads this )
5-I got an idea for a new business "rentachartdotcom"That I can share with TSD for free....imagine,first,create a group of pro traders(you are invited ),then "share" their screens,I can imagine the ad:"being able to see what we see,trade what we trade,time your entries to the second ...no more stress in your trading,just sign Now...(with a deep resonant voice,and a couple of embedded hypnotic commands)
6-Now,on a serious note...I don`t know if you realize it or not,but the indicators and libraries posted by Rich are "state of the art",so,this thread technical quality is unrivalled in the World Wide Web of digital filter`s threads,hey let us have some fun from time to time ...please
7-Finally,we saw what an "amatour";)(yes,yes,I know it is amateur,but he described himself so well...think about the hidden meaning of the word he used..Freudian slip) engineer can do to advance the field of comedy to previously unreached heights...
8-Your post gives me the opportunity to invite you to our "secret society",if you are interested,just PM me with your pink finger measurements(you know..for the special ring that tells everybody that you belong to a secret society ...;) )
Linuxser,you know I appreciate and respect you,so,I give you my word that I will try to stay "quieter" and refrain myself...As I said before,this thread now is unrivalled in the digital filter`s category,and we already had our fun,so,It is time to be serious again....
Regards
Simba...we should move our annual meeting....I've heard the beaches in Antigua are crowded with some "unpleasant visuals".... ;-)
cycles and arrows
Simba,
Because of SSA not only arrows but also cycle curve can change it's shape so e.g can show that it falls from the top than in some bars that is still flat so it simply cheats.
I hope that you know now that results of your EAs with combination of Goertzel - SSA are not reliable at all - too good. It's called 'future leak'...or you have different opinion ??
Anyway you can post the same chart for GBPJPY H4 like 2 days ago than it can say something. However repaint does not occur always only in case when prediction don't match future move of the price.
You can simple replace SSA by JMA than you will know the real EAs results.
Krzysztof
dvarrin,
Everybody could predict what would happen for EURUSD yesterday
..what is more difficult is to predict what it would do today and tomorrow..ok,my suggestions :
1-Use always at least H4 to fix the general cycle direction.
2-If possible,trade when both H1 and H4 are in agreement...and relatively "young",since cycles tend to advance or delay phase,good tradable cycles are those that do so slightly,but they still do.
3-Then,since you seem to like the lower timeframes,use your M15 and M30 cycles to finetune the entries in the DIRECTION signalled by H4+H1
For example,yesterday,since 00:00 hours in my chart,the 2 cycles,red and blue,upper separation, showed clearly that the direction to trade was up.These 2 cycles have been done(The blue one was done more than a year ago,the red one around 7 months ago) with the Digital Filters generator,do not repaint and are very easy to replicate
,I use them for GJ mainly but they work well for all majors or major crosses..BTW,they are no more in sync,so EU is a "forget" until they align again...I can see that the cycles in h4 are still in up phase(Aqua numbers above to the right of the chart calculated with another indicator...you can use Rich`s ones to help in your decision making,no need to belong to secret societies 
),so,more probably,the upmove will continue a few more bars,but "more probably" is not enough 
because they start to be "old",so,for now it is a forget...When the phases align down AND If the 2 DFG cycles align down again while the phases are relatively young I will think about shorting it.
Trading cycles without H4 direction is a recipe for disaster...there is too much noise at the lower timeframes,even denoising them,I haven`t found reliable cycles that work for long.
Regards
SimbaSimba, could you post those indicators displayed on your chart if you can share them?
No more in sync:I mean one points up(blue) the other points down(red)..so,take care..the phases of h4 cycles are up(Aqua letters in the pic),as I said,so the upmove should be expected to last a few more bars(NOTE:I SAID THIS a few hours ago
AND:Not all in life is cycles,take care of the fundamentals...Fed has announced a strong buyback program of US Debt,study what implications this has for liquidity and how this may help or hurt the dollar..1.3800/1.3870..If it happens,it will,PROBABLY,happen in this area
..Man today I am in the "Zone"
So,even if I personally believed a few hours ago that the most probable course was up,and I don`t believe anything serious can break the uptrend unless there are fundamental news or we reach the Area I indicated above...I think that the risk doesn`t compensate the potential rewards..so,I wait...if you didn`t make the money yesterday,today is too risky to do so..so,WAIT...beauty of H4 is that there is a cycle a week on average,so,you don`t need to trade everyday.
SimbaThank you Simba!
Ok I think I listen to you and wait a bit 
Improve your RR
Simba,
Because of SSA not only arrows but also cycle curve can change it's shape so e.g can show that it falls from the top than in some bars that is still flat so it simply cheats.
I hope that you know now that results of your EAs with combination of Goertzel - SSA are not reliable at all - too good. It's called 'future leak'...or you have different opinion ??
Anyway you can post the same chart for GBPJPY H4 like 2 days ago than it can say something. However repaint does not occur always only in case when prediction don't match future move of the price.
You can simple replace SSA by JMA than you will know the real EAs results.
KrzysztofK,
You seem to have an attitude like the world owes you an explanation,and this is not so,since I feel I owe Linuxser a minimum of contribution to this thread after the recent Comedy performance,I will reply to your questions,but,please try to change your attitude,we are not trying to convince you nor anybody else about our methods(just the opposite)...
1-The arrows have nothing to do with Goertzel,Mesa,SSA or JMA,they are an indicator called supersignals,you can search for it in this forum,it is available for everybody,it simply marks with arrows tops and bottoms...I prefer them to SR lines or zigzag,their only usefulness is to mark a previous top or bottom,not to trade on them...They are a very well known repainting indicator,so,using them to trigger entries or exits is crazy,just use them to mark where potential points of support and resistance are...The version I use it is called Super_Indicator_v2(I didn`t put the name ) and I modified it-int to external int- in order to manually adjust it to reflect highs or lows that are HALF a dominant cycle away(if dominant cycle at this moment,for example is 49 I set the superindicator "dist" at 25)...this way I mark the previous highs and bottoms that are price related to that cycle...the key word here is Mark..I don`t trade on them,but I am aware of these points where potential new supply or demand can come in force into the market.
2-The cycles:
Test results with the EAs are not biased..Let`s presume H1 Timeframe...if for example you entry long when cycle slope turns up and exit and reverse when cycle slope turns down..Imagine the following case bar1(previous bar)has closed and the cycles turned up at bar close..so at open of actual bar,bar0, EA enters a long-Like you will do if in front of the screen at that moment-then after 1 hour,at close of bar0,the Cycle Repaints down like crazy again..then the EA closes the long,at a loss and opens a short-like you would if in front of the screen at that moment-...then the new slope continues for 10 bars,so the EA just keep the shorts open..then when it turns up again,at bar close,next open the EA closes the short(at a big profit)
and opens a long...it continues for 5 bars...etc,etc...So the repainting effect,if any,is included in the results,it punishes the system,exactly like it would punish you if you where trading it manually in front of the screen....There is no future leak,at close of bar1(previous bar)if the slope is up EA enters a long...next close if slope has repainted down,it closes long(suffering a loss) and opens a short...where is the future leak...?When prediction doesn`t match future direction of prices you get punished with losses,when prediction matches the future direction you are rewarded with profits...usually the repainting is minimal,that is why the EA makes profits,it tracks the RIGHT Cycles to track and discards the unstable ones...we have several versions,one of them uses HMA smoothing and the results are practically the same,another works on raw prices and very similar results too..so,we concluded that it is not the smoothing,but the Cycles ...If you use unstable Cycles the repainting will kill your account no matter how much smooth you add...if you use stable Cycles you will make money,and the smooth will just add minimal differences.
The smooth only affects when using high frequency cycles(like 10 periods,etc)...and this means that those cycles are not reliable for long term trading(we tested this),so,which ones are?
Those that work out of sample
...So,test,test,test...to find stable cycles...That is what we use the EAs for.
3-Philosophy:We don`t use cycles as crystall balls that perfectly fit the past and the future...this won`t happen..we just use cycles that are stable enough to give us an edge in defining the most probable direction,and then trade on that direction,ONLY in that direction, using a diversity of tools,like price action,SR zones...etc,etc...That`s all ,folk
CONCLUSIONS:
1-You can believe the following or not,up to you,I don`t have ,nor do I want to prove anything...
2-There are stable cycles to be found...they are not in the high frequency range,there are several ways to find them,always confirm with out of sample tests.
3-I haven`t found any stable cycle below H1 timeframe,so,using cycles in M30,M15,M5,M1...has no edge whatsoever,actually,it has a negative edge.
4-Noise filtering method is irrelevant to TRADE the Cycles...BUT...It is very important to FIND the potentially right Cycles..then test out of sample and confirm their theoretical stability.
5-When trading those Cycles,use them just as a TRENDFILTER,then use your trader experience and price action to look for buying or selling points(in the direction of the cycle "trend") that improve your RR...No cycle is always right,so,trying to find the perfect crystall ball will lead to failure.
6-You have to accept and embrace risk to make money at trading,you can`t have 100% certainty,no matter how much you want it...looking for it will lead you to overfitting the past,and you already know that this doesn`t work.
I will let you guys continue with your tests and conversations...I believe it will be interesting if you posted HERE at this thread some actual results or backtests of using whatever you use(CSSA,Mesa..??? )for trading the specific pair of your choice...After all is said and done,it is good to continuously ask questions,but at a certain moment you have to understand that we want some answers too
If you do,and I don`t promise anything,and they are interesting we can show some results of Goertzel or Mesa on the same series,until then...
Ciao
Simba
Simba,
Regarding Comedy. Don't worry it's not easy to insult me or something, I'm very used to technical discussions (maybe not so hot), beside this I worked for 15 months in Italy plus had a Greek wife so i'm used to south temperament
I hope you understand my reaction seeing perfect chart from secret group and having knowledge that you are using SSA which introduces future leaks - i started to dig into this immediatelly and as a result we got this wide explanation
Who knows if we would get it otherwise.....and i was not mistaken in one way or another about repaint...actually friend of mine managed to catch repaint of GOERTZEL- SSA cycle curve with screen shots.
I managed to compile and build Goertzel dll for NS yesterday, it still does not display but hopefully i will get it working today so definitelly i will post something.
I hope Richcap didn't give up with us as it would be very big lose for this forum.
Krzysztof