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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 07:44
GBP/USD - bullish daily ranging with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction ofthe trend to be started (based on the article)
The price is on ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the narrow support/resistance levels:
Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and the price is breaking this pattern to above for the bullish trend to be resumed if 1.2581 level is broken to above on close daily bar.
"Recent GBP/USD action is consistent with a range but perhaps within a new trend (higher). The area around 1.2400 (55 day average, former highs and lows) should still be watched for support. Weakness below (daily close) would put the year open at 1.2278 back on the map. Daily highs from late January cluster around 1.2600 and is where I’d watch for near term resistance."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 12:51
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 59 pips range price movement
2017-02-17 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.==========
From official report:
GBP/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.22 11:16
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement
2017-02-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]
[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.==========
GBP/USD M5: 35 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event
Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 11:46
GBP/USD - "The BoE’s wait-and-see approach may continue to prop up the British Pound as the central bank drops it dovish tone, but the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace over the coming months as the U.K.’s departure from the U.K. dampens the long-term prospects for sustainable growth. Indeed, the stickiness in the pound-dollar exchange rate may start unravel over the coming days should the batch of key U.S. data prints boost interest-rate expectations. A rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders accompanied by an upward revision in the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the next interest rate decision on March 15, and the slew of fresh speeches from the group of 2017 voting-members (Dallas Fed PresidentRobert Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen) may heighten the appeal of the greenback should a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to further normalize monetary policy ‘sooner rather than later.’ Even though the FOMC Minutes failed to boost bets for a March rate-hike, Fed Fund Futures continue to price a greater than 60% probability for a move in June, and the deviating paths for monetary policy continues to instill a long-term bearish forecast for GBP/USD especially as the BoE keeps the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:37
GBP/USD - "The week ahead is fairly light with U.K. data, with Friday being the highlight as we receive a batch of medium-importance announcements on industrial and manufacturing production (January figures), trade balance figures (January) and the NIESR GDP estimate for the month of February. The bigger drive to the British currency in the week ahead will likely emanate from foreign themes, such as a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. As Sterling tests historically weak-values on the chart, the litmus for continued losses will likely continue to increase; meaning that data will likely need to print extremely poorly for the longer-term zone of support around the 1.2000 figure to finally give way."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.10 15:08
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls
2017-03-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
EUR/USD M5: 45 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 15:01
GBP/USD - pre-FOMC movement and levels (based on the article)
H4 price is on the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is on testing with Senkou Span line to above for the possible bullish reversal to be loacted inside the ranging Ichimoku cloud.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 19:33
Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and EUR/USD: Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement
2017-03-15 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
GBP/USD M5: 85 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events
EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:26
GBP/USD - "At this week’s BoE rate decision, we saw the first vote for a rate hike post-Brexit, and this came from Ms. Kristin Forbes. The meeting minutes indicated that other members may vote for a rate hike in the coming months, and the reaction since that rate decision has been GBP-strength. In her testimonial, Ms. Forbes says that while Brexit will continue to dominate the news and public debate, the BoE remains steadfast towards their mandate of 2% inflation. She remarked that inflation is already very close to the bank’s target today; but the BoE forecast of 2.7% inflation within a year warrants attention. For the next week, the forecast on the British Pound will be held as neutral. More signs of confirmed inflationary forces will need to be seen before a bullish forecast can be initiated."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.20 18:12
UK To Trigger Article 50 On March 29 (based on the article)
The primary bearish is the long-term trend tendency for the pair: monthly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below in augist 2014 for the bearish marklet condition. Fow now, the price is continuing with the bearish market condition with 1.1475 medium-term bearish target to re-enter for example.