GBPUSD Technical Analysis 13.10 - 20.10 : Correction under Bullish
newdigital, 2013.10.13 18:04
GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 14 - 18
The pound was lower against the dollar on Friday as hopes for a
breakthrough on the U.S. budget and debt ceiling deadlock in Washington
supported the greenback, while disappointing U.K. economic data weighed
on sterling.
GBP/USD
ended Friday’s session at 1.5944, 0.13% lower for the day, after
falling as low as 1.5912 on Thursday. For the week, the pair was down
0.94%.
Cable is likely to find short-term support at 1.5885 and resistance at 1.6120.
Sentiment
on the dollar was boosted as House Republicans and the Obama
administration began a second day of negotiations on a deal to reopen
the government and raise the U.S. government borrowing limit for six
weeks.
The U.S. risks running out of cash if the debt ceiling is not raised by 17 October.
Meanwhile,
concerns over economic impact of the political deadlock in Washington
fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will further delay plans
to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.
Wednesday’s
minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin
tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member
opting to leave the program unchanged.
Data released on Friday
showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nine
months in October, as concerns over the impact of the government
shutdown weighed.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment
index declined to 75.2 from a final reading of 77.5 in September, and
below expectations for a reading of 76.0.
Sterling came under
pressure after data released on Friday showed that U.K. construction
sector output slipped 0.1% in August, a sharp slowdown after a 2.8%
increase in July.
Earlier in the week, data showed that U.K.
industrial production fell at the fastest rate in nearly a year in
August, rising doubts over the outlook for third quarter growth.
The
Office for National Statistics said U.K. industrial production fell
1.1% in August, defying expectations for a 0.4% increase, after inching
up 0.1% in July.
The ONS said manufacturing production fell by a
seasonally adjusted 1.2% in August, confounding expectations for a 0.4%
increase.
In the week ahead, investors will continued to closely
monitor political developments in Washington. Trade volumes are likely
to remain light on Monday, with U.S. markets closed for a holiday. U.K
data on employment and retail sales will be in focus as markets attempt
to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.
Ahead of the
coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other
significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday
as there are no relevant events on this day.
Monday, October 14
Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Colombus Day holiday.
Tuesday, October 15
The U.K. is to produce official data on consumer price inflation and producer price inflation.
The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in the Empire state.
Wednesday, October 16
The
U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people
unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average
earnings.
Thursday, October 17
The U.K. is to
produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer
spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
The
U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless
claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.
This is interesting situation on H1 timerame for now : Chinkou Span line is going along historical price and ready to cross this price anytime from above to below (image - see on the left side), price is inside Ichimoku cloud with flat.
I name this setup as 'ready-to-go' :)
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
read-to-go setup
This is interesting situation on H1 timerame for now : Chinkou Span line is going along historical price and ready to cross this price anytime from above to below (image - see on the left side), price is inside Ichimoku cloud with flat.
I name this setup as 'ready-to-go' :)
well ... it was started (see the image). But price is inside Ichimoku cloud so I do not expect big movement for downtrend for the long time sorry.
well ... it was started (see the image). But price is inside Ichimoku cloud so I do not expect big movement for downtrend for the long time sorry.
Now? It depends on the system you are trading. I opened the position (you can see it from previous post/image) :
as to me so I like to trade breakout or breakdown incl news trading.
As to GBPUSD H1 for now - the price is inside Ichimoku cloud (it means: ranging market condition) so it is risky to open trade for now.
If you want to know how to trade breakout/breakdown/news events so go to this post for example :
How to Start with Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.09.20 08:21
Summaries :
====
- How to Start with MT5, a summary !
- All (not yet) about Strategy Tester, Optimization and Cloud
- ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (incl 2 good EAs)
- BRAINTRADING SYSTEM HowTo
- PriceChannel Parabolic system (incl 2 versions of the EA)
- Market Condition Evaluation (2 EAs were created)
- Ichimoku
-
Financial and trading videos - Table of Contents
- All about Calendar tab and Macro Economic Events
- All about MQL5 Wizard : create robots without programming
Breakout on H1 timeframe (Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator crossed historical price frok below to above) :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD H1 breakout
newdigital, 2013.10.14 19:15
GBP/USD remains higher amid U.S. budget concerns
The pound remained higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as growing
concerns over a potential U.S. sovereign default continued to weigh on
demand for the greenback.
GBP/USD
hit 1.5989 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's highest since October
9; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5968, adding 0.14%.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5922, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.6070, the high of September 23.
Negotiations
between the White House and House Republicans broke down over the
weekend, after President Barack Obama rejected Republican proposals for a
short-term debt ceiling increase.
If a deal to raise the
government borrowing limit is not struck ahead of Thursday’s deadline,
the U.S. will face an unprecedented sovereign debt default.
World
finance ministers and central bank heads in Washington for the annual
meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank over the
weekend called for “urgent action” to break the deadlock, warning of the
negative impact on the global economic recovery.
Sterling was fractionally higher against the euro with EUR/GBP edging down 0.07%, to hit 0.8484.
In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that industrial production rose
1% in August, coming in above expectations for a 0.8% increase.
It may be breakdown to be going soon on GBPUSD h1 - look at the image :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD H1 - breakdown may be going on soon
As to H4 timeframe so it is ranging market condition -
As to D1 timeframe so it is flat for the second day :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD D1 - flat for the second day
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The correction is going on for the second week within bullish primary trend which was stopped by now with 1.5913 support level on D1 timeframe.
If the price will cross 1.5913 support line so the correction will be continuing for the week; and if Chinkou Span line will cross historical price from above to below - we can see the reversal on the end of the week to ranging bearish.
If the price will cross 1.6259 so we will see the primary bullish trend to be continuing with good breakout for example.
My expectation for GBPUSD D1 price is that we may see the ranging between 1.5913 and 1.6259 levels.
Recommendation for long: watch the price breaking 1.6177 resistance level for next breaking of 1.6259
Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 1.5913 from above to below
Trading Summary: correction
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-10-14 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]
2013-10-15 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]
2013-10-15 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - PPI Input]
2013-10-16 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]
2013-10-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]
2013-10-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index]
2013-10-18 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]
Please note : some US high impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDJPY movement
SUMMARY : correction
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart