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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.13 11:37 

The correction is going on for the second week within bullish primary trend which was stopped by now with 1.5913 support level on D1 timeframe.

If the price will cross 1.5913 support line so the correction will be continuing for the week; and if Chinkou Span line will cross historical price from above to below - we can see the reversal on the end of the week to ranging bearish.

If the price will cross 1.6259 so we will see the primary bullish trend to be continuing with good breakout for example.

My expectation for GBPUSD D1 price is that we may see the ranging between 1.5913 and 1.6259 levels.

Recommendation for long: watch the price breaking 1.6177 resistance level for next breaking of 1.6259

Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 1.5913 from above to below

Trading Summary: correction

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for this coming week)

2013-10-14 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]

2013-10-15 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]

2013-10-15 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - PPI Input]

2013-10-16 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

2013-10-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]

2013-10-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index]

2013-10-18 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]

Please note : some US high impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDJPY movement

Resistance
 Support
1.6005
1.5923
1.6177
1.5913
1.6259
1.5609




SUMMARY : correction

TREND : ranging


Intraday Chart




Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.13 18:05  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.10.13 18:04

GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 14 - 18

The pound was lower against the dollar on Friday as hopes for a breakthrough on the U.S. budget and debt ceiling deadlock in Washington supported the greenback, while disappointing U.K. economic data weighed on sterling.

GBP/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.5944, 0.13% lower for the day, after falling as low as 1.5912 on Thursday. For the week, the pair was down 0.94%.

Cable is likely to find short-term support at 1.5885 and resistance at 1.6120.

Sentiment on the dollar was boosted as House Republicans and the Obama administration began a second day of negotiations on a deal to reopen the government and raise the U.S. government borrowing limit for six weeks.

The U.S. risks running out of cash if the debt ceiling is not raised by 17 October.

Meanwhile, concerns over economic impact of the political deadlock in Washington fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will further delay plans to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nine months in October, as concerns over the impact of the government shutdown weighed.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined to 75.2 from a final reading of 77.5 in September, and below expectations for a reading of 76.0.

Sterling came under pressure after data released on Friday showed that U.K. construction sector output slipped 0.1% in August, a sharp slowdown after a 2.8% increase in July.

Earlier in the week, data showed that U.K. industrial production fell at the fastest rate in nearly a year in August, rising doubts over the outlook for third quarter growth.

The Office for National Statistics said U.K. industrial production fell 1.1% in August, defying expectations for a 0.4% increase, after inching up 0.1% in July.

The ONS said manufacturing production fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in August, confounding expectations for a 0.4% increase.

In the week ahead, investors will continued to closely monitor political developments in Washington. Trade volumes are likely to remain light on Monday, with U.S. markets closed for a holiday. U.K data on employment and retail sales will be in focus as markets attempt to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, October 14

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Colombus Day holiday.

Tuesday, October 15

The U.K. is to produce official data on consumer price inflation and producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in the Empire state.

Wednesday, October 16


The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

Thursday, October 17

The U.K. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 08:51  

This is interesting situation on H1 timerame for now : Chinkou Span line is going along historical price and ready to cross this price anytime from above to below (image - see on the left side), price is inside Ichimoku cloud with flat.

I name this setup as 'ready-to-go' :)

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

read-to-go setup

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 08:57  
newdigital:

This is interesting situation on H1 timerame for now : Chinkou Span line is going along historical price and ready to cross this price anytime from above to below (image - see on the left side), price is inside Ichimoku cloud with flat.

I name this setup as 'ready-to-go' :)


well ... it was started (see the image). But price is inside Ichimoku cloud so I do not expect big movement for downtrend for the long time sorry.



noo1muu2saa3
3
noo1muu2saa3 2013.10.14 10:55  
newdigital:

well ... it was started (see the image). But price is inside Ichimoku cloud so I do not expect big movement for downtrend for the long time sorry.

where can I enter position now?
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 11:05  

Now? It depends on the system you are trading. I opened the position (you can see it from previous post/image) :



as to me so I like to trade breakout or breakdown incl news trading. 

As to GBPUSD H1 for now - the price is inside Ichimoku cloud (it means: ranging market condition) so it is risky to open trade for now.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 14:53  

Breakout on H1 timeframe (Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator crossed historical price frok below to above) :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD H1 breakout

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 19:15  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.10.14 19:15

GBP/USD remains higher amid U.S. budget concerns

The pound remained higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as growing concerns over a potential U.S. sovereign default continued to weigh on demand for the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5989 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's highest since October 9; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5968, adding 0.14%.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.5922, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.6070, the high of September 23.

Negotiations between the White House and House Republicans broke down over the weekend, after President Barack Obama rejected Republican proposals for a short-term debt ceiling increase.

If a deal to raise the government borrowing limit is not struck ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the U.S. will face an unprecedented sovereign debt default.

World finance ministers and central bank heads in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank over the weekend called for “urgent action” to break the deadlock, warning of the negative impact on the global economic recovery.

Sterling was fractionally higher against the euro with EUR/GBP edging down 0.07%, to hit 0.8484.

In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that industrial production rose 1% in August, coming in above expectations for a 0.8% increase.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 19:23  

It may be breakdown to be going soon on GBPUSD h1 - look at the image :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD H1 - breakdown may be going on soon

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


As to H4 timeframe so it is ranging market condition -



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
52104
Sergey Golubev 2013.10.14 19:25  

As to D1 timeframe so it is flat for the second day :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.10.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD D1 - flat for the second day

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.10.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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