Press review - page 45

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Based on the article : Is The USD/JPY Finally Ready to Break Higher?

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

  • US Dollar attempts break above critical resistance versus Yen only to reverse sharply lower
  • We’re watching US Treasury Yields and Japanese data to gauge whether the pair breaks higher


The Japanese Yen finished the week almost exactly where it began, but an impressive Dollar surge leaves the USDJPY exchange rate at major technical levels. Might this be the week we finally see a major break in the Yen? 

The Yen has gone almost nowhere versus the US Dollar as relatively steady monetary policy expectations for both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan keeps the yield-sensitive currency similarly stable. Yet there’s little secret that Japanese Prime Minister Abe and BoJ Governor Kuroda have made it a priority to keep policy as loose as possible in a bid to fight deflation and boost economic growth.

Thus we look to upcoming GDP figures to gauge whether the so-called policies of “Abenomics” are taking effect and—more importantly—whether the BoJ is likely to keep current Quantitative Easing measures unchanged through the foreseeable future.


Is The USD/JPY Finally Ready to Break Higher?
Is The USD/JPY Finally Ready to Break Higher?
  • David Rodriguez
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Japanese Yen finished the week almost exactly where it began, but an impressive Dollar surge leaves the USDJPY exchange rate at major technical levels. The USDJPY made a surge above major psychological resistance at ¥99 only to stage a remarkable turnaround and fall towards support. It took a sharply better-than-expected report to send...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

OPEC Members Feel that Oil Prices are Stable and Steady (based on forexminute.com article)

Amidst the concern that crude prices are going down, OPEC members are saying that crude is exactly where it should be. Recently, the WTI crude prices went bellow $95 per barrel which according to oil companies is quite dismal and can lead to a slowdown. The major reason is cited that there is a huge stockpile of crude in the U.S.




Though the likely result of negotiations between the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian counterpart were not what they expected, the oil market got positive outlook from it. Kerry’s statement sent positive signals to the oil economy as that would ease sanctions against Iran’s oil exports in exchange for concessions on its nuclear work.

Reportedly, like WTI, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, Brent for December settlement gained $1.66 to end the session at $105.12. Nonetheless, there has been immense improvement in the U.S. supplies of crude oil which has gone up 1.58 million barrels to 385.4 million in the week ending Nov. 1.
The Energy Information Administration reported that it is the first time since June 21 that there has been such an increase. On the other hand, output has also gone up to 7.896 million barrels a day in the week ending Oct. 18, which is the highest in 14 years.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-11 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Home Loans]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia Home Loans Jump 4.4% In September

The total number of housing loans in Australia climbed a seasonally adjusted 4.4 percent in September compared to the previous month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 51,480.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 3.5 percent following the downwardly revised 4.0 percent contraction in August (originally -3.9 percent).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  
China Data Boosts Recovery Hopes As Leaders Gather To Discuss Reforms

China's recovery has gathered pace with solid expansion in industrial production and exports, official data revealed last week, offsetting concerns that the ongoing economic restructuring could further suppress growth.

The data brings in some cheer to the party leaders, who have gathered in Beijing to hash out fresh round of reforms for the economy. The third plenum meeting of the 18th Communist Party of China, or CPC, kicked off in the capital on Saturday.

The National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday that China's industrial production grew 10.3 percent year-on-year in October, slightly faster than a 10.2 percent increase in September. Output was up 9.7 percent in the first ten months of the year.

Growth in retail sales was solid, yet flat at 13.3 percent in October. In January-October, sales grew 13 percent compared with the same period last year, NBS said.

Fixed asset investment rose 20.1 percent in the year through October, almost steady compared with 20.2 percent increase in the year ended September.

China's trade data showed stronger-than-expected rebound in exports in October. Figures from the General Administration of Customs on Friday revealed that the trade surplus more than doubled to $31.1 billion in October.

The country's exports grew 5.6 percent year-on-year in October and imports were up 7.6 percent.


China Data Boosts Recovery Hopes As Leaders Gather To Discuss Reforms
China Data Boosts Recovery Hopes As Leaders Gather To Discuss Reforms
  • www.rttnews.com
China's recovery has gathered pace with solid expansion in industrial production and exports, official data revealed last week, offsetting concerns that the ongoing economic restructuring could further suppress growth. The data brings in some cheer to the party leaders, who have gathered in Beijing to hash out fresh round of reforms for the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on 'British Pound to Threaten Key Support on Slowing UK Inflatio' article)

The headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to narrow to an annualized 2.5% in October, and a marked slowdown may spur a more meaningful correction in the British Pound as it limits the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 11/12/2013 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 2.5%
Previous: 2.7%
Forecast: 2.7% to 2.9%

Why Is This Event Important:

The recent trend of better-than-expected data may continue to prompt sticky price growth in the U.K., and we may see the BoE switch gears in 2014 as the central bank continues to see above-target inflation over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk


Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Narrows to 2.5% or Lower

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short British Pound trade
  • If reaction favors a sell trade, short GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish GBP Trade: Inflation Tops Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Retains Range-Bound Price Action From September
  • Relative Strength Index Preserves Bearish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6250 Pivot to 1.6300 Pivot (2012 highs)
  • Interim Support: 1.5900 Pivot to 1.5910 (78.6% Fibonacci expansion)


U.K. consumer prices increased 2.7% for the second consecutive month in September, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly advanced 2.2% during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.0% clip. Despite the stronger-than-expected print, the British Pound struggled to maintain the initial bounce following the print, with the GBPUSD slipping below the 1.5950 region, but the sterling regained its footing to end the day at 1.5995.


British Pound to Threaten Key Support on Slowing UK Inflation
British Pound to Threaten Key Support on Slowing UK Inflation
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
The headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to narrow to an annualized 2.5% in October, and a marked slowdown may spur a more meaningful correction in the British Pound as it limits the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule. The recent trend of better-than-expected data may continue to prompt...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-12 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia Business Confidence Falls Sharply, NAB Survey Shows

Confidence among Australian businesses fell sharply in October as firms started to reassess their future plans in the wake of continued weakness in operating conditions and changed political climate, a monthly survey by the National Australia Bank revealed Tuesday.

The business confidence index fell to 5 in October from September's three-and-a-half year high reading of 12.

The pull back in confidence suggests businesses may have reassessed their expectations about the future activity in the changed political environment given the continued weakness in actual business conditions, NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.

"Nonetheless, the relatively elevated level of business confidence, compared to early 2013 readings, suggests businesses may still be feeling buoyed by positive housing price trends and low borrowing rates," Oster pointed out.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-12 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

Pound Slides After UK Inflation Report

Inflation in the U.K. slowed to 2.2 percent from 2.7 percent in September. Economists expected the headline inflation to ease to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent in September.

Output price inflation eased to 0.8 percent in October from 1.2 percent in September. Economists predicted the output prices to ease to 1 percent.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

IMF: Iran Economy Review Early Next Year

A review of Iran's economy will be carried out early next year, the International Monetary Fund said Monday, which will be the first such exercise in two years.

"The forthcoming Article IV Consultation mission early next year will provide an opportunity to deepen the discussions on the policy and reform priorities of the authorities," the IMF Mission to Iran said in a statement after concluding a visit to review economic developments.

The IMF mission visited Tehran from October 29 to November 7 to hold talks with the new authorities on economic policies and reforms. The participants included officials from the central bank and government, financial institutions and the business community.

The talks were focused on "the need for Iran to tackle high inflation and restore economic growth, as well as on the need for Iran to begin addressing long-standing policy and structural challenges in the economy", the IMF said.

IMF: Iran Economy Review Early Next Year
IMF: Iran Economy Review Early Next Year
  • www.rttnews.com
A review of Iran's will be carried out early next year, the International Monetary Fund said Monday, which will be the first such exercise in two years. "The forthcoming Article IV Consultation mission early next year will provide an opportunity to deepen the discussions on the policy and reform priorities of the authorities," the IMF Mission...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Asmussen: ECB Not At Lower Bound On Interest Rates :

The European Central Bank has room to cut interest rates further and it will also consider charging banks to deposit their cash, but such a move was unlikely in the near term, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Jorg Asmussen said on Tuesday.

The central bank has not reached the lower bound on interest rates and it depends on how inflation develops, Asmussen said in an interview to the German daily Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung. Last week, the ECB sprung a surprise by cutting the key interest rate by a quarter-point to a record low 0.25 percent, given the combination of low inflation, record unemployment and a stronger currency.

Asmussen: ECB Not At Lower Bound On Interest Rates
Asmussen: ECB Not At Lower Bound On Interest Rates
  • www.rttnews.com
The European Central Bank has room to cut interest rates further and it will also consider charging banks to deposit their cash, but such a move was unlikely in the near term, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Jorg Asmussen said on Tuesday. The central bank has not reached the lower bound on interest rates and it depends on how...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Based on How To Invest In Twitter For Less Than $20 :

Young and profit-less Twitter is a risky investment. At $42.90 a share it’s not a particularly cheap investment either. ETF issuer Global X Funds is betting it can mitigate this risk by selling you not only Twitter, but a whole bundle of tech stocks.

Global X started its Social Media Index ETF in November 2011. In two years the fund has grown from $1.5 million in assets to $106 million. It now trades for around $18.50 a share. That is up 26% from its original price — and 55% year-over-year.

Not everyone, however, is thrilled with Twitter or the broader industry. FORBES contributor Jesse Colombo recently argued that Twitter’s IPO is further evidence of tech bubble. He writes,

"Though investors are betting that Twitter will grow into its valuation, I strongly believe that they have gotten ahead of themselves and should be assigning a far more conservative valuation to a speculative investment like this. Even if Twitter becomes a profitable company, most of their future growth is likely already priced into the stock, which means that even the slightest disappointment will send it tumbling.”
How To Invest In Twitter For Less Than $20
How To Invest In Twitter For Less Than $20
  • Samantha Sharf
  • www.forbes.com
ETF issuer Global X is betting it can mitigate risk by selling you not only Twitter, but a whole bundle of tech stocks.