Based on the article : Is The USD/JPY Finally Ready to Break Higher?
Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral
The Japanese Yen finished
the week almost exactly where it began, but an impressive Dollar surge
leaves the USDJPY exchange rate at major technical levels. Might this be the week we finally see a major break in the Yen?
The Yen has gone almost nowhere versus the US Dollar as relatively steady monetary policy expectations for both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan
keeps the yield-sensitive currency similarly stable. Yet there’s little
secret that Japanese Prime Minister Abe and BoJ Governor Kuroda have
made it a priority to keep policy as loose as possible in a bid to fight
deflation and boost economic growth.
Thus we look to upcoming GDP
figures to gauge whether the so-called policies of “Abenomics” are
taking effect and—more importantly—whether the BoJ is likely to keep
current Quantitative Easing measures unchanged through the foreseeable
OPEC Members Feel that Oil Prices are Stable and Steady (based on forexminute.com article)
Amidst the concern that crude prices are going down, OPEC members are
saying that crude is exactly where it should be. Recently, the WTI crude
prices went bellow $95 per barrel which according to oil companies is
quite dismal and can lead to a slowdown. The major reason is cited that
there is a huge stockpile of crude in the U.S.Though the likely result of negotiations between the U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry and Iranian counterpart were not what they expected,
the oil market got positive outlook from it. Kerry’s statement sent
positive signals to the oil economy as that would ease sanctions against
Iran’s oil exports in exchange for concessions on its nuclear work.Reportedly, like WTI, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange,
Brent for December settlement gained $1.66 to end the session at
$105.12. Nonetheless, there has been immense improvement in the U.S.
supplies of crude oil which has gone up 1.58 million barrels to 385.4
million in the week ending Nov. 1.
The Energy Information Administration reported that it is the first
time since June 21 that there has been such an increase. On the other
hand, output has also gone up to 7.896 million barrels a day in the week
ending Oct. 18, which is the highest in 14 years.
2013-11-11 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Home Loans]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Home Loans Jump 4.4% In September
The total number of housing loans in Australia climbed a seasonally
adjusted 4.4 percent in September compared to the previous month, the
Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 51,480.
beat forecasts for an increase of 3.5 percent following the downwardly
revised 4.0 percent contraction in August (originally -3.9 percent).
China's recovery has gathered pace with solid expansion in
industrial production and exports, official data revealed last week,
offsetting concerns that the ongoing economic restructuring could
further suppress growth.
The data brings in some cheer to the party leaders, who have gathered in Beijing to hash out fresh round of reforms for the economy. The third plenum meeting of the 18th Communist Party of China, or CPC, kicked off in the capital on Saturday.
National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday that China's industrial
production grew 10.3 percent year-on-year in October, slightly faster
than a 10.2 percent increase in September. Output was up 9.7 percent in
the first ten months of the year.
Growth in retail sales was
solid, yet flat at 13.3 percent in October. In January-October, sales
grew 13 percent compared with the same period last year, NBS said.
asset investment rose 20.1 percent in the year through October, almost
steady compared with 20.2 percent increase in the year ended September.
trade data showed stronger-than-expected rebound in exports in October.
Figures from the General Administration of Customs on Friday revealed
that the trade surplus more than doubled to $31.1 billion in October.
The country's exports grew 5.6 percent year-on-year in October and imports were up 7.6 percent.
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on 'British Pound to Threaten Key Support on Slowing UK Inflatio' article)
The headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to narrow to an
annualized 2.5% in October, and a marked slowdown may spur a more
meaningful correction in the British Pound as it limits the Bank of
England’s (BoE) scope to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.
Time of release: 11/12/2013 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Forecast: 2.7% to 2.9%
Why Is This Event Important:
The recent trend of better-than-expected data may continue to prompt
sticky price growth in the U.K., and we may see the BoE switch gears in
2014 as the central bank continues to see above-target inflation over
the policy horizon.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Narrows to 2.5% or Lower
Potential Price Targets For The Release
U.K. consumer prices increased 2.7% for the second consecutive month in
September, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly advanced 2.2%
during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.0% clip. Despite the
stronger-than-expected print, the British Pound struggled to maintain
the initial bounce following the print, with the GBPUSD slipping below
the 1.5950 region, but the sterling regained its footing to end the day
2013-11-12 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
Australia Business Confidence Falls Sharply, NAB Survey Shows
Confidence among Australian businesses fell sharply in October as
firms started to reassess their future plans in the wake of continued
weakness in operating conditions and changed political climate, a
monthly survey by the National Australia Bank revealed Tuesday.
The business confidence index fell to 5 in October from September's three-and-a-half year high reading of 12.
pull back in confidence suggests businesses may have reassessed their
expectations about the future activity in the changed political
environment given the continued weakness in actual business conditions,
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
relatively elevated level of business confidence, compared to early 2013
readings, suggests businesses may still be feeling buoyed by positive
housing price trends and low borrowing rates," Oster pointed out.
2013-11-12 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
Pound Slides After UK Inflation Report
Inflation in the U.K. slowed to 2.2 percent from 2.7 percent in
September. Economists expected the headline inflation to ease to 2.5
percent from 2.7 percent in September.
Output price inflation
eased to 0.8 percent in October from 1.2 percent in September.
Economists predicted the output prices to ease to 1 percent.
IMF: Iran Economy Review Early Next Year
A review of Iran's economy
will be carried out early next year, the International Monetary Fund
said Monday, which will be the first such exercise in two years.
forthcoming Article IV Consultation mission early next year will
provide an opportunity to deepen the discussions on the policy and
reform priorities of the authorities," the IMF Mission to Iran said in a
statement after concluding a visit to review economic developments.
IMF mission visited Tehran from October 29 to November 7 to hold talks
with the new authorities on economic policies and reforms. The
participants included officials from the central bank and government,
financial institutions and the business community.
talks were focused on "the need for Iran to tackle high inflation and
restore economic growth, as well as on the need for Iran to begin
addressing long-standing policy and structural challenges in the
economy", the IMF said.
Asmussen: ECB Not At Lower Bound On Interest Rates :
The European Central Bank has room to cut interest rates further and
it will also consider charging banks to deposit their cash, but such a
move was unlikely in the near term, European Central Bank Executive
Board Member Jorg Asmussen said on Tuesday.
The central bank has
not reached the lower bound on interest rates and it depends on how
inflation develops, Asmussen said in an interview to the German daily
Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung. Last week, the ECB sprung a surprise by
cutting the key interest rate by a quarter-point to a record low 0.25
percent, given the combination of low inflation, record unemployment and
a stronger currency.
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