Press review - page 88

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USDJPY Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

  • Another Weak Jobs Report Sends USD/JPY to ¥102, EUR/USD to $1.3600
  • Price & Time: Important Time For USD/JPY



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Understanding Forex Trade Sizes (based on this article)

Micro Lot

A micro lot is the term used for a 1,000 unit trade, which on most major pairs come out to about $0.10 of risk per pip. This is the smallest trade size available and is a great size for traders that don’t have much capital to trade. You won’t make a fortune, but you won’t lose too much either trading micros, that’s why it’s a great place to cut your teeth in Forex.

Mini Lot

A mini lot is the term used for a 10,000 unit trade, which on most major pairs means we are trading $1 a pip. We recommend having at least $1,000 deposited into your account for each mini lot you plan to have open simultaneously. It’s a good trade size for a serious part-time forex trader that has the capital or a full-time trader wanting to start with a smaller lot size.

Standard Lot

A standard lot is the term used for a 100,000 unit trade, which on most major pairs means we are trading $10 per pip. Gains/losses could reach $1000-$2000 or more per standard lot on a fairly common day in the forex market, so having a larger account size is mandatory to trade them seriously. Our account should have at least $10,000 per standard lot we are looking to trade, which normally means you are very serious trader in the FX market, part-time or full-time.


In the image above, we can see what each trade size translates to in an actual currency pair, the EUR/USD. Notice the trade size refers to the first currency in the currency pair, in this case Euros for the EURUSD pair. So a micro lot, mini lot, and standard lot means €1,000, €10,000, and €100,000.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bullish

  • Lack of easing by ECB sparks Euro reversal versus Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen.
  • Euro catches a bid on mixed US NFP report, clear $1.3600 versus US Dollar.



ECB’s Hold Offers Euro Rally Room as EONIA Rates Steady
ECB’s Hold Offers Euro Rally Room as EONIA Rates Steady
  • Christopher Vecchio
  • www.dailyfx.com
Policymakers from across the Euro-Zone are concerned that if growth does not pick up soon, a Japanese-like era of deflation could set in as both businesses’ and consumers’ expectations for price pressures are diminished in perpetuity. For a highly anticipated meeting, the February gathering of European monetary policymakers was, well...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bearish

  • British Pound underperformance suggests it could move lower
  • A sharp turn in retail forex sentiment warns of a potential GBPUSD turnaround



British Pound Outlook Depends on Bank of England’s Words This Week
British Pound Outlook Depends on Bank of England’s Words This Week
  • David Rodriguez
  • www.dailyfx.com
The British Pound fell against most major FX counterparts this week, but the real volatility may come on next week’s highly-anticipated BoE Inflation Report and the GBP forecast hangs in the balance.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Fundamentals February 10 - 14

1. Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 15:00. New Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before the U.S. senate. This will be her first public comments on monetary policy after taking the reins at the U.S. central bank. Her first appearance was at her Senate confirmation hearing on November 14, before the Fed announced the tapering of its bond-buying program. Yellen will have to face the continuation of the taper plan, raise rates and reduce the Fed’s balance sheet.

2. Mark Carney speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak about the Inflation Report, in London. Economists believe Mark Carney will raise the benchmark from 0.5% in light of the recent growth trend in the UK economy and domestic recovery. It is estimated that the BOE will be the first to raise rates, followed by the Fed. With lower UK unemployment, the pressure for faster action rises.

3. Mario Draghi speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Brussels. He may talk about the ECB’s recent decision to maintain rates and monetary policy in light of the slow inflation. Market volatility is expected. The central bank did say incoming information in March is important.

4. US Federal Budget Balance: Wednesday, 19:00. The U.S. government deficit continued to shrink in December posting a surplus of $53.2 billion following a deficit of 135.2 billion in Novwmber. The government hopes to achieve an operational balance by 2015 after the U.S. federal budget deficit surged above 9% of GDP reaching $1.4 trillion in 2009. The improvement in GDP growth since late 2009 and stronger consumer confidence strengthened economic activity, constantly increasing tax revenues. Meanwhile federal government expenditure was very low in the past two years, enabling deficit reduction. A deficit of $28.2 billion is expected this time.

5. Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment remained at 5.8% in December while the Job force narrowed by 22,600 positions to 11,629,500. The main reduction occurred in full-time employment dropping 31,600 while part-time employment increased by 9,000. Nevertheless, economists forecast growth in the Australian job market during this year. The Australian economy is expected to add 15,300 jobs, while unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 5.9%.

6. US Retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. US retail sales increased in December amid a pick-up in sales for clothing and online acquisitions. However almost everywhere else, proved to be disappointing in the holiday shopping season. Retail sales increased by a mere 0.2%, following a 0.4% gain in November. Automobiles and trucks declined 1.8% due to the unusually cold weather and other retail spending showed general weakness. However, Core sales, excluding volatile categories such as autos, gas and building supplies, edged up 0.7% and may give a more reliable and positive estimate on the true state of the US economy. With the ongoing improvement in the job market, household spending is bound to strengthen more rapidly in 2014. US retail sales are projected to remain unchanged, while Core sales are expected to climb 0.2%.

7. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week, down 20,000 to 331,000, indicating fewer layoffs and improved working conditions. The four-week average, ticked up 250 to 334,000, remaining in the pre-recession levels. However severe weather conditions may bring further volatility to the job market in the coming weeks. The number of new claims is expected to reach 331,000.

8. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. The preliminary estimate for consumer sentiment in January dropped to 80.4, following 82.5 in December. The final survey numbers were later revised to 81.2. The preliminary figure was lower than the 83.4 projected by analysts and was closely related to disappointing job growth in December. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 80.6.

*All times are GMT.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Forex - Weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

The dollar was broadly lower against the other main currencies on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected jobs last month, but the data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to scale back its stimulus program.

Monday, February 10


Japan is to produce data on the current account, bank lending and consumer confidence.

In the euro zone, France is to release data on industrial production.

Tuesday, February 11

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as reports on home loans and house price inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Later in the day, Canada’s government is to release its annual budget statement.

Wednesday, February 12


Australia is to produce a private sector report on consumer sentiment.

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.

Switzerland is to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of all inflation.

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.

The BoE is to release its quarterly inflation report, which outlines projections for economic growth and inflation. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the contents of the report.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Brussels.

Thursday, February 13

Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.

Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin.

Canada is to release data on new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

China is to release data on consumer and producer inflation.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Germany, France and Italy are also to release preliminary estimates on fourth quarter growth.

Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
USD/CHF weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

The U.S. dollar fell to one-week lows against the Swiss franc on Friday before paring back some losses as markets digested a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for January.

Tuesday, February 11

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 12


Switzerland is to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of all inflation.

Thursday, February 13

Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

The dollar rose against the yen on Friday, rebounding from lows hit after data showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a slower-than-forecast rate in January.

Monday, February 10

Japan is to produce data on the current account, bank lending and consumer confidence.

Tuesday, February 11

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 12

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.

Thursday, February 13

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
NZD/USD weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

The New Zealand dollar rose to a nine-day high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as a mixed U.S. employment report forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Tuesday, February 11

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Thursday, February 13

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14


The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

The Australian dollar rose to more than a three-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus program following the release of mixed U.S. employment data.

Tuesday, February 11

Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as reports on home loans and house price inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 12

Australia is to produce a private sector report on consumer sentiment.

Thursday, February 13

Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.