USD/JPY falls on uncertainty over Fed stimulus program
The dollar fell against the yen on Tuesday amid
ongoing uncertainty as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will
announce plans to scale back its USD85 billion in monthly bond
purchases at its monetary policy meeting next week
ECB's Nowotny: Monetary Policy Faces Limits In Stimulating Credit Demand
European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on
Wednesday that there are limits to what monetary policy can do to boost
Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) last meeting for 2013 may spark
a bullish breakout in the NZDUSD should the central bank lay out a more
detailed timeline for its exit strategy.
Time of release: 12/11/2013 20:00 GMT, 15:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: NZDUSD
DailyFX Forecast: 2.50%
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite talks of a currency intervention, Governor Graeme Wheeler may
sound more hawkish this time around as the central bank prepares to
normalize monetary policy in 2014, and the growing threats of an
asset-bubble may prompt the RBNZ to implement a rate hike within the
first-half of the following year in order to balance the risks
surrounding the region.How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Delivers Detailed Schedule for Normalization
2013-12-10 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Unemployment Rate 5.8% In November
Australia saw a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.8 percent in
November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales
Why Is This Event Important:
Key data prints highlighting a more robust recovery may heighten bets
for a small taper as market participants turn their attention to the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, and the
central bank may sound more upbeat this time around following the upward
revision in 3Q GDP.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Retail Sales Climbs 0.6% or Greater
The Week Ahead: Is This the Next Taper Stopper?
The stock market stabilized late last week but the damage was done by
mid-week as the technical deterioration had given advance warning of the
market’s decline. Last Monday’s feeble reaction to the powerful gains
on the jobs report was disappointing and short-term sell signals were
generated.The financial media is attributing the stock market decline to
the growing consensus that the Fed may announce changes in their bond
buying program at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting. Thus, the
dreaded tapering is again the focus of many analysts.In August, I
explained my view that more taper tantrums would be bullish, and the
stock market’s correction ended about two weeks later. Since then, the
improvement in the unemployment numbers has convinced some that the Fed
can now justify tapering.Though it has not been widely discussed, it is
my opinion that fear of deflation is likely to keep the Fed from
changing its policy now. Last week’s Producer Price Index reflected
almost no inflation at the producer level, and this Tuesday, we get the
Consumer Price Index. So what should you do?
Combining Two Powerful Technical Tools
There are a wide range of technical indicators that traders and
investors can use to determine the market’s trend and to pick stocks. I
have found that the most effective combination of indicators use either
different data or non-correlated data.
Technical Analysis for USDJPY for coming week
Trading Strategy: Looking for support in the 102.65/95 region for longs against 102.10.
Australian Dollar Faces Make-or-Break Event Risk as FOMC Meets
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral
The Australian Dollar
accelerated downward last week, losing nearly 2 percent against its US
namesake and entering the weekend at the lowest level in three months.
The move lower over the past eight weeks has closely mirrored a recovery
in benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields, suggesting the
liquidation reflects building speculation about an imminent cutback of
the Federal Reserve’s QE3 asset purchases.
On the domestic front, December’s HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI
report represents the only bit of noteworthy event risk. Expectations
call for a slight pickup in factory-sector activity. As a stand-alone
release, this might have helped the Aussie higher, but taken against a
backdrop of Fed-related macro gyrations across the financial markets the
data may not even register on investors’ radar.