Press review - page 61

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Outlook Hinges on FOMC- Taper Talk to Drive Prices

Gold prices were firmer on the week with the previous metal climbing 0.60% to trade at $1235 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The weekly tally downplays a substantial rally early in the week that saw prices climb as high as $1267 before sharply reversing course over the next two sessions. Although the broader outlook for gold remains weighted to the downside, all eyes turn to the FOMC next week for the medium-term as the investors look to Bernanke and Co. for clues as to the taper timeline.

From a technical standpoint, gold remains at risk below $1268/70 with support seen lower at $1209/10. Look for the FOMC to offer guidance with a break below the monthly low targeting key technical support at $1179/81. Subsequent support targets are seen at $1151/57. A breach above the $1270 threshold risks a more meaningful correction into resistance targets at $1286 and $1304 with only a break above $1325 invalidating the broader downtrend. Note that although daily momentum has remained bearish territory the slope has flattened out and such indicators are likely to offer little guidance as we head into next week’s event risk. Things are likely to simmer down as we head into the policy decision and be wary of emotional price breaks as liquidity thins out ahead of the Holidays.

[Sergey Golubev]

The Four Biggest Mistakes in Stock & Futures Trading Strategies

1. Lack Of A Trading Plan
2. Using To Much Leverage
3. Failure to Control Risk
4. Lack Of Self-Discipline

While most books about trading are based on success, I want to talk about the other 90% of traders and trading results – the dark side of the business. Why? Because if you can avoid the mistakes then success should naturally happen. Trading As Your Business should not be taken lightly and it’s generally the little things (negatives) that make the biggest differences.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-16 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 50.8
• forecast data is 51.0
• actual data is 50.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

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China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Falls

A key indicator of China's manufacturing sector performance declined slightly in December, but still managed to hold above the neutral mark indicating a moderate pace of expansion, preliminary survey data published by Markit Economics revealed Monday.

The HSBC purchasing managers' index fell to 50.5 in December from 50.8 in November. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.

[Sergey Golubev]

EURUSD weekly outlook for December 16 - 20

Monday, December 16

• The euro zone is to publish data on manufacturing and service sector activity, while Germany and France are to publish individual reports. Germany’s central bank is to publish its monthly report.
• The U.S. is to release reports on industrial production, manufacturing activity in the New York region and the balance of foreign and domestic investment in U.S. securities.
  

Tuesday, December 17

• The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health. The euro zone is to publish data on consumer inflation.
• The U.S. is to release data on consumer inflation and the current account.
  

Wednesday, December 18

• The Ifo Institute is to publish a report on German business climate, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The U.S. is to release data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity, and housing starts.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The U.S. central bank is also to publish its economic projections for the next two years. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke.
  

Thursday, December 19

• The euro zone is to release data on the current account.
• The U.S. is to publish data on existing home sales, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and initial jobless claims.
  

Friday, December 20

• Germany is to release data on producer price inflation, as well as private sector data on consumer climate.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on third quarter GDP.

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold prices up in Asia (adapted from investing article)

Gold prices in Asia gained early Monday, carrying over an uptrend from last week as investors eye demand for the holiday season. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery gained 0.11% to USD1,236 a troy ounce in Asia. Last week, gold prices fell to a session low of USD1,219.50 a troy ounce, the weakest level since Dec. 6.

Gold is down approximately 27% this year, heading for the first annual loss in 13 years, as solid U.S. economic data underlined expectations the Fed will begin curbing stimulus.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s outcome of the Fed’s monthly policy meeting, and a press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trade ideas thread – Monday 16 December 2013

It is the thread on forexlive blog opened today. This link (weekly thread) is on top with google today because of the idea: everybody can post their ideas for trading the pairs for the week.

[Sergey Golubev]

Using historical and sentiment data, here are lists of bullish and bearish contrarian stock plays for next year:

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-17 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

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Forex - AUD/USD steady after RBA minutes, economic outlook

The Australian dollar was steady against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, after the Reserve Bank of Australia signalled the possibility for further rate cuts and comments by the country's Treasurer, while investors eyed the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting.

AUD/USD hit 0.8930 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8940, easing 0.06%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8904, the low of September 1 and resistance at 0.9014, the high of September 2.

The minutes of the RBA's December policy meeting earlier showed that the bank maintained the option of loosening monetary policy further due to an "uncomfortably high" currency.

The report added that "given the substantial degree of policy stimulus that had been imparted, it was prudent to hold the cash rate steady."

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-17 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

• past data is 54.6
• forecast data is 55.0
• actual data is 62.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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German ZEW Economic Confidence Highest Since April 2006

Germany's economic confidence increased to the highest level in nearly seven years in December, and also to a larger extent than expected by economists, latest data showed Tuesday.

The ZEW indicator of Economic Sentiment climbed to 62 in December from 54.6 in November, results of a survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research/ZEW revealed. Economists were looking for a slower increase to 55. The December reading was the highest since April 2006.

At the same time, the indicator of the country's current economic situation advanced to 32.4 in December from 28.7 a month earlier. Expectations were for a score of 29.9.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-17 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

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U.S. Consumer Price Index Comes In Flat In November

Consumer prices in the U.S. came in unchanged in the month of November, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday, with a steep drop in energy prices offsetting increases in prices for shelter and airline fares.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in November after edging down by 0.1 percent in October. The flat reading for the index came in line with economist estimates.