Financial News & Fundamental Analysis - page 6
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EUROPEAN SESSION UPDATE: No specific expectations from today’s G8 summit; PM Abe ally calls for more BoJ easing…
It’s been a quiet European session in Forex markets, as little news from the UK and Euro-zone have left the Euro and Pound relatively unchanged during today’s trading. The major winners of the day have been the Aussie and Kiwi, as the Yen has shown the biggest daily losses, thereby reflecting a risk-on environment in Forex trading. This risk appetite is reflected in the major European and Asian equities, which have been trading higher following the weekly open.
The major story of the day is the Group of 8 summit, which will begin today. There doesn’t seem to be a specific topic that Forex traders are waiting for a decision on, but there is still the possibility of a decision at the summit which moves markets in an unexpected way. The major story consuming Forex Traders’ attention remains Wednesday’s Fed meeting and monetary policy decisions.
Dollar Suffers Repeat of Worst Week in 17 Months Ahead of Fed
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) dropped 1.3 percent for the second week in a row. The matching declines are the worst for the greenback since last January and the four-week tumble is the longest run of pain since September. This benchmark currency is at serious risk of seeing its impressive – counter risk – bull trend fully reversing course. However, Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision will be the judge of this possible misfortune. Much of the greenback’s more recent gains – particularly the May rally – was founded on premature ‘Taper’ speculation. The possibility that the Fed could throttle back on addictive stimulus threatened to undermine the unprecedented risk appetite drive and thereby leverage the greenback’s safe haven status. Yet, investors seemed to recognize that they got ahead of themselves with the June slump reflecting the Fed’s loose consensus to wait a few months to act. That said, speculators may not be reassured if they simply avoid a cut to the QE3 pace this month. A clear warning of an impending Taper within the next few months could just as effectively spark an implosion.
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[TD]3000 [TD]1050 [TD]175 [TD]EUROPEAN SESSION UPDATE: The German Zew survey rose more than expected despite Bundesbank expectations for a summer economic slowdown; Yen declines along with Nikkei…
The German Zew Survey of analysts’ and investors’ expectations rose to a three month high of 38.5 in June, beating expectations for 38.1 and up from 36.4 in May. The Zew survey of current sentiment unexpectedly fell back to 8.6 in June, while the Euro-zone economic sentiment survey rose to 30.6.
The higher expectations for an improved German economy contradicted the Bundesbank’s prediction yesterday that the German economy will slow in the summer. In April, the German government cut its growth prediction to 0.4% in 2013, and the economy expanded by 0.1% in the first quarter of this year.
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The Euro-zone calendar this week picks up today with the market moving June ZEW Survey due for both the broader Euro-zone and Germany. The recent improvement in growth data in May is likely to be reflected in the June sentiment surveys, with German Economic Sentiment notably expected to improve back to 38.1, after having fallen off from the yearly highs set in March at 48.5.
Overall, the three-month averages for both components of the German ZEW Survey – Current Situation and Economic Sentiment – remain near their lowest levels since mid-2010, underscoring the fragility of growth prospects in the region. Accordingly, given the recent sustained elevated exchange rate of the Euro relative to its major peers, risk is weighted to the downside as the ‘good news’ has thus far been priced in; a miss on a significant report such as the ZEW Survey would likely lead to selling pressure anew.
The Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement is in focus. Traders are looking to the outing as a defining moment when the FOMC unveils critical guidance on the timing of a reduction in QE3 asset purchases and the strategy to be used to execute it.
Ben Bernanke and company have surely taken note of the uneasy mood around financial markets associated with a possible near-term stimulus cutback. In fact, central bank officials have floated the idea of tapering QE in commentary over recent weeks, suggesting they may have been deliberately stress-testing investors’ likely response to such an outcome.
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Dollar’s Best Week in 3 Years Spark for 110 USDJPY, 1.2000 EUR/USD?
The Fed delivered the global financial markets its biggest shock this past week since the US default brinkmanship resulted in the loss of country’s triple-A rating back in August of 2011. And, the central bank didn’t even change policy. The group’s massive $85 billion-per-month QE3 stimulus program survived the FOMC meeting this past week, yet the 10-year Treasury note was sold heavily enough to drive its yield over 40 basis points higher for the biggest weekly increase in a decade. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USdollar) rallied 2.4 percent – the strongest move in three years- and the S&P 500 dropped 2.1 percent for its worst performance this year. This revival of risk-appetite based correlations suggests a current of eroding sentiment is carrying us on a market-wide delevering effort that has enough weight to develop a lasting bull trend for the dollar. Yet, does this broad volatility have the necessary elements to send EURUSD back towards 1.2000 or USDJPY up to 110. It is highly unlikely we see both. To send EURUSD plunging 1,000 pips, we will likely need a combination of Euro-area financial risk and general risk aversion (the latter usually instigates the former). Yet, the level of risk aversion to carry the world’s most liquid pairing that far would spur a carry trade unwind for the stimulus-laden yen crosses that sent USDJPY tumbling alongside AUDJPY.
Australian Dollar May Find Fuel for Recovery in Bond Yield ShiftThe Australian Dollar faced renewed selling pressure last week, touching the lowest level in close to three years against its US namesake, after the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement added fuel to speculation about a cutback in asset purchases emerging on the horizon. This sparked a widespread reversal in trends dependent on the presumption of continued Fed money-printing, sending the US Dollar broadly higher against the majors as dilution fears unraveled.
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