AUDUSD Technical Analysis 21.07 - 28.07 : Choppy bearish
newdigital, 2013.07.21 18:00
I made this weekly technical analysis for AUDUSD here and it may be good to compare it with weekly techinical analysis which was made by one of the popular forex portal.
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: July 22 - 26
The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session modestly higher against its
U.S. counterpart, after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke earlier in the week eased concerns over how soon the bank will
start tapering its easing program.
AUD/USD
hit 0.9291 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since July 11; the pair
subsequently consolidated at 0.9176 by close of trade on Friday, up
0.11% on the day and 1.37% higher for the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9088, the low from July 16 and resistance at 0.9291, the high from July 17.
In
the first day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress Bernanke said
the central bank could scale back its asset purchases by the end of the
year if the economy continues to improve, but added that there was no
“preset course.”
Bernanke said the economic recovery was
continuing at a moderate pace but reiterated that monetary policy will
remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.
The Aussie was
also supported after China’s central bank said on Friday that it was
removing the lower limit on interest rates for banks, in an effort to
help lenders attract more borrowers and spur economic activity.
China is Australia's biggest export partner.
Meanwhile,
in Australia, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest
policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers believe
the current stance of the bank's policy to be appropriate.
The RBA also said the inflation outlook was “slightly higher” due to the Aussie’s recent drop.
In
the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on the housing sector and
manufacturing, while China is also scheduled to release data on
manufacturing activity.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com
has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to
affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant
events on this day.
Monday, July 22
The U.S. is to publish private sector data on existing home sales, an important economic indicator.
Wednesday, July 24
Australia is to produce government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
China is to publish the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index, a leading economic indicator.
Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.
Thursday, July 25
The
U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading
indicator of production, as well as the weekly government report on
initial jobless claims.
Friday, July 26
The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.
Since April, it has come down by almost 750 pips, now possibly reversal is expected.
yes, agree - may be correction. But the situation is not changed too much today: still ranging on H4 and flat for D1 timeframe
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audusd ranging
33 pips (4 digit pips) by equity during AUDUSD D1 flat market :)
I got 70 pips on AUDUSD D1 flat :) - see image :
Just to remind that we are going to have the following news event today :
2013-07-24 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
I got 70 pips on AUDUSD D1 flat :) - see image :
newdigital, 2013.07.24 07:36
2013-07-24 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
- past data is 0.4%
- forecast data is 0.5%
- actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Inflation Rises 0.4% On Quarter In Q2 :
Consumer prices in Australia added 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
That was unchanged from Q1 but shy of forecasts for a gain of 0.5 percent.
The most significant increases in price for this quarter were for medical and hospital services (3.4 percent), tobacco (3.0 percent), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (0.9 percent), furniture (4.8 percent) and rents (1.1 percent).
The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-4.0 percent) and automotive fuel (-3.1 percent).
Among other individual components, prices for clothing climbed 2.7 percent on quarter, followed by health care (1.9 percent), alcohol (1.3 percent), furniture (1.0 percent) and housing (0.6 percent).
On a yearly basis, inflation gained 2.4 percent, below forecasts for 2.5 percent - which would have been unchanged from the three months prior.
Among the individual components, prices for health care spiked 6.6 percent on year, followed by education (5.7 percent), housing (5.3 percent), alcohol (4.0 percent) and food (1.1 percent).
In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that the Q2 trimmed mean was up 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year - in line with forecasts after adding 0.3 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year in the previous three months.
Also, the RBA's weighted median added 0.7 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year. That compares to forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on year after rising 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year in Q1.
Upon the release of the data, the Australian dollar fell against other major currencies, trading near 0.9273 against the greenback, 92.37 against the yen, 1.4247 against the euro and 1.1595 against the kiwi.
Those losses have accelerated, however, following the disappointing results of China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for July - which came in with a score of 47.7 against expectations for 48.2, which would have been unchanged from June.
newdigital, 2013.07.24 07:40
2013-07-24 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 48.2
- forecast data is 48.5
- actual data is 47.7 according to the latest press release
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China Manufacturing Contraction Deepens As New Orders Slide :
China's factory activity fell to the weakest level in eleven months in July amid a continued slide in new orders and faster destocking, preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC revealed Wednesday.
The purchasing managers' index, an indicator of the country's factory sector performance, fell to 47.7 in July from 48.2 in June. An index reading below 50 suggests deterioration in activity.
New orders received by manufacturers fell at a faster pace in July, while the pace of decline in export orders eased, the survey found. The manufacturing output index fell to a nine-month low of 48.2 in July from 48.6 in June.
Employment at manufacturers decreased at faster rate in July, the survey revealed.
The PMI reading suggested "a continuous slowdown in manufacturing sectors thanks to weaker new orders and faster destocking," said Hongbin Qu, Chief China Economist at HSBC. "This adds more pressure on the labour market," he said.
"As Beijing has recently stressed to secure the minimum level of growth required to ensure stable employment, the flash PMI reinforces the need to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to stabilise growth," Hongbin noted.
State media on Tuesday quoted Chinese Premier Li Keqiang as saying that the economy
needs at least 7.5 percent growth to maintain labor market stability.
In the remarks made at a recent State Council meeting, he said that 7
percent economic growth is the government's bottom line of tolerance.
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audusd during the CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI
The correction (correction in a bear market or so called Bear Market Rally) is started on open bar for AUDUSD D1. Do we see Chinkou Span line (DarkTurquoise color line on the far left side of the chart) crossing historical price from below to above? When this line will cross historical price on close D1 bar (I think - it may be on the beginning of the next week) so we may have good uptrend movement for this pair.
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audusd correction started
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AUDUSD price was on raning during the last week floating between 0.9234 resistance and 0.9139 support levels. The price is inside the cloud for H4 timeframe but cloud is very thin one and it may be reversal to primary bearish anyway. It was flat (sadeways) during the last week between 0.9305 resistance and 0.8999 support levels.
If the price will break 0.8999 support level from above to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing (which is most probable situation as far as I see). if the price will break 0.9234 resistance line so the primary bullish will be continuing on H4 timferame with the possibility to break 0.9305 resistance for good correction (correction in bear market - Bear market Rally) on D1 timeframe.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for the next week)
2013-07-24 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
2013-07-24 01:45 GMT | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
SUMMARY : choppy bearish
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart