Eur/usd - page 263
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Not much of movement today as I hoped for. NFP came close to expected and price dropped around 80 pips not as how I am used to from a big day like today.
EUR/USD: Buck Profits on NFP; Revision & Expectations Limit Gains
The US dollar moderately extended its two-day rebound against the euro as investors cheered April's non-farm payrolls rebound, while casting doubts about an early rate hike as the numbers failed to go the extra distance, especially considering the downward revision to the March number
The greenback posted moderate gains against the euro currency on non-farm payrolls day, managing to stay below the two-month high of $1.1392 seen on Thursday.
However, the strength of the buck was limited as investors absorbed other details from the payrolls report.
"I definitely think there's a degree of uncertainty as to what this report actually means," EverBank World Markets vice president Mike Meyer noticed. He also added that the downward revision of the already weak March figure was "casting a shadow on this report."
The EUR/USD cross was trading 0.50% lower at $1.1209, failing to break profoundly below the $1.12 level, although solid non-farm payrolls figures provided the US dollar with some boost as the release showed payrolls rose 223,000 in April.
On the downside, the already soft March reading was hit by a downward revision to 85,000 job additions, while April's update marginally missed the anticipated hike of 228,000 new jobs.
"Probably the best scenario in which the market was hoping for growth but not so strong that the Fed needs to hike in June," Ryan Larson, RBC Global Asset Management head of equity management, mentioned.
At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased to 5.4%, in line with expectations, from 5.5% seen previously.
Finally, the closely watched additional labor indicator - average hourly earnings - rose 0.1% and 2.2% when measured on a monthly and annual basis, compared to the gains of 0.2% and 2.1% seen previously. However, both figures missed the survey by 0.1%.
Later during the trading session, a wholesale inventories report showed an unexpected figure of 0.1% in March, decreasing from a revised 0.2%.
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EUR/USD Forecast May 11, 2015
The EUR/USD pair tried to rally on Friday, but as the Nonfarm Payroll numbers came out, the pair fell back down. The resulting candle is a shooting star, and now is sitting on the 1.12 level. This is a sign of weakness, and with the candle we think this pair could drop back to the 1.10 level as there is a significant amount of support in that area. The pair has been volatile, and should continue to be so. We believe that you will have to be nimble in general at this point.
EUR/USD: Pair Posts Minor Weekly Gain, Volatility Remains High - See more at: http://
EUR/USD: Pair Posts Minor Weekly Gain, Volatility Remains High
The pair posted only a minor gain over the week, but most importantly, it failed at the $1.1390 resistance, which stopped the pair on the way higher to $1.15.
A heavy macro week kicked-off on Monday with manufacturing PMIs from the euro zone.
The manufacturing PMI in Germany came in at 52.1, slightly lower than the 52.8 in March, while the French gauge printed 48.0, down from the 48.8 in March, Markit advised on Monday.
The euro received a short-term boost from skyrocketing German yields, when bonds came under heavy selling pressure. Moreover, the long-dollar positions have been squeezed out on sharp short covering.
Dollar negativity continued on Tuesday, when the US trade deficit widened 43.1% - the sharpest spike since December 1996 - to $51.4 billion in March, far above the $41.7 billion expected by the markets and following a revised $35.9 billion shortfall in February which was $0.45 billion larger than reported previously, fresh data from the Department of Commerce showed. The weak reading will push the Q1 GDP into negative territory.
The greenback failed to erase losses even after an upbeat ISM report, which showed that non-manufacturing activity ticked higher to 57.8 from 56.5 in March.
The week was intertwined with US labor market data, which came out somewhat mixed. According to the latest ADP employment data for April, the US saw an increase of 169,000 jobs, missing analysts estimates of a 200,000 print. The dollar lost another 50 pips and was trading close to the $1.1390 resistance. Only positive jobless claims helped to ease the selling pressure.
Jobless claims for the previous week printed 265,000, up from last week's 262,000. Last week's reading still stands at a 15-year low. The pair managed to erase some of its gains and dipped back below the $1.13 mark. The dollar was slowly gaining to reach levels around $1.1190 ahead of the US payrolls.
The headline non-farm payrolls number was not 100% perfect, but still easily beat the previous months disastrous reading of 85,000, coming out just mildly below estimates.
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EUR/USD Forecast May 11-15
EUR/USD moved up to new highs, but shed the gains in a volatile week. The upcoming week features yet another chapter in the Greek drama as well as important GDP data . Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Data in the euro-zone was mixed, with OK PMIs but weak German industrial data. The boost for the euro came from a sell-off in German bunds, that triggered a squeeze on euro shorts. In the US, the big trade deficit raised speculation for a contraction in Q1. Also the weak ADP report weighed heavily on the greenback. This sent EUR/USD to highs last seen in February, but the move did not last too long. The mixed NFP report in the US eventually pushed the pair lower, to close with only a small weekly gain.
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EURUSD fell on Friday session after a better than expected US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. The currency initially rose but found enough selling pressure to give all its gains and close in the red near the low of the day, on a narrow range day. We may see a pullback toward the daily support at 1.1097 before another move upward.
Euro remains weaker amid Greece worries
The euro remained weaker against the other major currencies on Monday as fresh concerns over Greece’s future in the euro zone weighed ahead of talks between eurogroup finance ministers and Athens later in the day.
EUR/USD was down 0.57% to 1.1137, off the two-month peaks of 1.1391 set last Thursday.
Athens is scrambling to reach an agreement with its international creditors on a package of economic reforms in order to access fresh bailout funds and avert a liquidity crunch.
Ahead of the talks Greece’s government indicated that it was still hopeful that progress would be made but euro zone officials have indicated that too many issues still remain unresolved.
Greece was due to repay approximately €770 million to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.
A senior IMF official said Sunday it is working with Greece’s neighbors in southeastern Europe on contingency plans in the event of a Greek default.
The euro extended losses against the yen and the pound, with EUR/JPY down 0.38% to 133.63 and EUR/GBP losing 0.78% to trade at 0.7195.
Sterling showed little reaction after the Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Monday, ahead of its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.
The monetary policy announcement was delayed from Thursday because of Britain’s general election.
The dollar remained supported after data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in April, broadly in line with forecasts.
But March’s payrolls report was revised to show that only 85,000 jobs were created, the fewest since June 2012.
The data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold at current record lows until later in the year.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.33% to 95.22, off last week’s two-month trough of 93.96.
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thank you for the news.
EUR/USD didn'tmake any significant move last week. The alert is neutral, possibly with slight bearish signs for testing the 1.1140 support. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but a clear break and daily close below 1.1140 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1040.
FX WES
EUR/USD slips below 1.12, as fears of a Grexit remain in focus
EUR/USD fell mildly on Monday extending its recent slump, as fears of a Greek exit from the European Union continued to weigh on the currency pair.
The euro lost 0.0047 or 0.42% to 1.1155 against the dollar in U.S. afternoon trading, posting its fourth consecutive losing session. The losses, however, have been minimal during the period as the euro still remains above its level of 1.1132 on April 29 when it appreciated by more than 1.35% against the American dollar. The pair remained in a tight range of 1.132 on the low end and a peak of 1.1207 on Monday, as it moved steadily lower throughout the session.
In Greece, government officials eased concerns that it could default on its obligations as early as this week by confirming that it has started making payments on a €750 million loan due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday. The payment stemming from a 2010 bailout from the IMF is Greece's largest of the month.
In Brussels, meanwhile, there are still concerns that Greece could default on its sovereign debt and leave the EU following the conclusion of lengthy negotiations on Monday. While Eurogroup chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem applauded Greece's renewed efforts at accelerating negotiations, he emphasized that more time is needed to reach a comprehensive agreement. Greece, however, is running out of time to strike a deal with its troika of creditors for a critical stimulus package needed to stave off bankruptcy. In late-June, a four-month extension from Greece's euro zone creditors dubbed the "Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement," otherwise known as the Greek bailout, will expire.
"The Eurogroup today took stock of the state of play with the ongoing negotiations between Greek authorities and the institution. We welcomed the progress that has been achieved so far. We note the reorganization and streamlining of working procedures has made an acceleration possible and has contributed to a more substantial deal. At the same time, we acknowledged that more time and effort are needed to bridge the gaps on the remaining open issues," the Eurogroup leaders said in a statement.
European Union commissioner Pierre Moscovici said while significant convergence had been achieved on some issues such as determining rates for Value-Added Taxes and on how to handle non-performing loans, the sides still remained apart on determining reform measures in the Greek labor market and with its pension system.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England kept its main rate steady at 0.5% and the size of its bond portfolio constant at 375 billion pounds days after prime minister David Cameron's sweeping victory in the British general elections. GBP/USD rose 0.97% to 1.5588, while EUR/GBP fell 1.31% to 0.7157.
In the U.S., yields on 30-Year Treasuries soared to 3.03% its highest level since late-November. The yield curve between 5-Year and 30-year Treasuries also reached its steepest level since late last year.
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