Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2015 - page 2

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.22 10:37

Fading Global Growth View Doesn’t Faze Equities, Yen Crosses or EURUSD (based on dailyfx article)

  • The S&P 500 closed at a record high Thursday - extending a six-year 215 percent rally from March 2009
  • Much of the speculative rank is turning to 'tactical' trading, but there is still plenty of buy-and-hold
  • What is the 'risk-reward' scenario for US equities (and risk in general) to rise another 20%?

"Investors should be wary and opportunistic speculators on alert. We revisit the risk-reward evaluation of the global capital markets and sentiment in today's Strategy Video."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 10:55

Holiday Conditions and Record Equities Remind of Bigger Liquidity Risks (based on dailyfx article)

If capital markets correct under risk aversion - inevitable over a long enough period - will the retreat be orderly or chaotic? There is usually at least a little panic in a bearish phase after a long build up, but conditions behind the current six-year bull trend suggest there may be more acute trouble when speculative appetites cool. Liquidity risks may have been fostered by the aggressive risk-taking and incredible policy intervention through these past years. We've seen how important liquidity is in the post-Lehman collapse and SNB's withdrawal of its exchange rate floor. But, what happens when the traditional outlets for safety are distorted? We consider the risks - and perhaps some opportunities - of liquidity issues in the unavoidable, next market bear wave in this weekend Strategy Video.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:39

Gold forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

Gold markets fell during the course of the week, testing the $1200 level again. Because of this, we feel that the markets probably going to grind around in this area, and we are not ready to make any longer-term trades as a result. We believe that short-term traders will continue to pushes market around, and as a result it is probably best left to those who play short-term charts. Ultimately though, we do think the gold will offer value, so picking up some physical metal might not be a bad move.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:42

USD/JPY forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis  (based on fxempire article)

The USD/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, as we closed out the 121.50 area. That being the case, it now looks as if we are ready to break out above the potential ascending triangle that it appears on the weekly chart. That of course would be a very bullish sign, as the height of the triangle measures roughly 650 pips. Because of this, we believe that the USD/JPY pair will be very bullish soon, and a break above the 122 level is enough to get us to start buying again. We believe at that point in time that the market should head to roughly 128 given enough time.

Needless to say, the market should have a bit of resistance at the 125 level though, and we don’t necessarily think that it will be the easiest move. However, by the end of the week we started to see US dollar strength just about everywhere, and as a result it seems as if the market is suddenly in favor the US dollar overall again. The US Dollar Index broke above the 96 handle, which of course is very bullish, and the EUR/USD pair suddenly testing the 1.10 level, an area that is indeed important. Ultimately, we have to wait to see what happens on a daily close, but it certainly looks as if the USD/JPY is ready to continue the longer-term uptrend.

Even if we fell from here, we believe that there is enough support below to keep this market going higher, and as a result we look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. We think that the absolute “floor” in this market is somewhere near the 115 handle, and with that we have no intentions of selling this pair anytime soon. In fact, we believe that a lot of traders are starting to think longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of thoughts when it comes to this currency pair. Ultimately, the market should continue to find itself well supported, especially considering that the Bank of Japan is so dovish at the moment.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:45

USD/CHF forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The USD/CHF pair broke higher during the course of the week, bouncing off of the 0.92 level. However, we have the vital 0.95 level just above, and we believe that will be somewhat resistive. With that being the case, we believe that longer-term traders can have to wait until we get a nice close on the daily chart above the 0.95 level in order to start going long. As far selling is concerned, we have no interest whatsoever in going so at the moment, especially considering that the US dollar is so strong all of a sudden.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:49

USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the three hammers that we have recently formed. We crashed into the 1.23 level, which we see as the beginning of a significant barrier to the upside, and as a result we need to get back above the range for the week in order to consider buying. If we do, we feel that the market will probably head back towards the 1.28 level. It will be interesting see how this plays out though, because the oil markets don’t look like they agree.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:52

NZD/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The New Zealand dollar fell during the course of the week, testing the 0.73 level. We believe that there is a significant amount of support below though, so quite frankly we are not comfortable selling at this point. We certainly can’t buy this market though, because it is far too bearish. With that being the case, we are simply sitting on the sidelines as far as longer-term trades are concerned. However, shorter-term selling opportunities should continue to be the case going forward, so we suggest shorter time frames.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:54

GBP/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the week, testing the 1.55 region. We find this very interesting, because the 1.55 area was massively resistive in the past, and as a result it should now be massively supportive. We originally went as high as 1.58 last week, and then fell from there. That was where we decided that the trend had changed completely. We did not get above there, and the fact that we have fallen back to this area makes is a very interesting market to us at the moment. After all, we feel like the longer-term trend is been decided before our very eyes at the moment.

We look at this as a market that is going to make a significant decision soon. We believe that if we can break below the 1.54 level, the market should continue to go much lower. At that point in time, we would be sellers and aiming for at least 1.50, if not even lower than that. On the other hand, if we can break above the 1.58 level, we believe that this market should go much higher with a significant amount of noise to be found at the 1.60 handle as is expected by all large, round, psychologically significant regions.

The British pound has of course been very bullish for some time now, so the question then becomes whether or not this is simply a pullback from a massive move higher and just simply the market running out of momentum, or if it is the sign that the market is ready to turn back around and continue the longer-term downtrend. The one thing that we do know is that the US dollar suddenly looks like it’s strengthening, which makes us a little bit concerned about the uptrend. Because of this, we think that longer-term traders are probably going to be best served by waiting for a breakout above 1.58 to start buying again, or of course the aforementioned break down below the 1.54 level. In the meantime, it will probably be more of a short-term trading type of environment.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:56

EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the 1.10 level for support. That’s basically where we close for the week, and this is an area that we should see support at. However, we are closing at the very bottom of the range, and that of course is a very bearish sign. This is a simple set up for us: we believe that if we get a daily close below the 1.10 handle, that the market should continue down to roughly 1.05 or so. On the other hand, if we get a supportive daily candle near the 1.10 level, we believe that the market will then bounce towards the 1.15 handle. With that being said, daily charts will probably be where you need to look for setups.



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