The NZD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, dropping down to
the 0.8450 region, and then closing at the 0.85 handle. Because of that,
it appears that the market is ready to bounce, and on a break of the
top of the hammer we believe that this market returns to the 0.88 level.
With that, we feel that this market can be bought, but that being the
case we feel that a move below the 0.84 level would in fact be very
bearish. Either one of those two moves gets us involved in this market.
2014-08-04 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Australia Retail Sales Rebound In June; Exceed Expectations
Australia's retail sales recovered more than expected in June, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.
turnover rebounded by a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent month-on-month
in June following the 0.3 percent decline in May. Economists had
expected a 0.3 percent rebound in sales.
Sales of household goods grew the most, by 1.7 percent in June following the 0.2 percent increase in May.
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory sales recovered by 1.4 percent, after the 2.8 percent drop in May.
Other retail sales also rebounded in June, by 0.9 percent. This follows the 0.3 percent fall in May.
AUDUSD - Aussie/dollar still within confines of trading range
The AUDUSD did break down through support near 0.9320 last week, but
it’s still confined within a large trading range between 0.9450
resistance and key support level
down near 0.9200. If price continues falling and tests that key 0.9200
support, we will watch for price action buying opportunities from
there, to trade back up toward the range resistance.NZDUSD - Kiwi/dollar showing signs of firming up near support
The NZDUSD found some buyers toward the end of last week as the market
pushed slightly higher on Thursday and Friday. Price has fallen down
close to the key support near 0.8400, but isn’t quite there yet. We
could wait for a buy signal from that key 0.8400 support level or wait
for the market to retrace higher and watch for a price action sell signal from resistance to trade back in-line with this recent bearish momentum.
2014-08-05 01:45 gmt (or 03:45 mq mt5 time) | [cny - hsbc services pmi]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for aud in our case)
[cny - hsbc services pmi] = level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. it's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
the services sector in china slipped to no change in july, the
latest survey from markit economics revealed on tuesday in its latest
performance of service index - which came in with a score of 50.0.
that's down from 53.1 in june.
a score below 50 signals contraction in a sector, while a reading above 50 means expansion.
2014-08-05 04:30 GMT (or 06:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
[AUD - Cash Rate] = interest rate for overnight money market deposits. short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged
once again at record-low as policymakers reiterated their thinking that
the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in
The monetary policy board governed by Glenn
Stevens decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 2.50 percent as
widely expected. The rate has been at the current historic-low level
since August 2013.
The RBA has reduced its benchmark rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 to help the economy sustain the economic growth amid fading support from the mining boom.
Martin, an Asia economist at Capital Economics, said rate hikes are a
long way off. If the RBA does make a change within the next six months,
it is likely to be a rate cut.
2014-08-05 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
New Zealand Q2 Jobless Rate Drops More Than Expected
The unemployment rate in New Zealand decreased more than expected in
the second quarter while participation rate declined, data showed
The jobless rate came in at 5.6 percent in the second quarter, figures from Statistics New Zealand showed.
This was less than the jobless rate of 5.9 percent in the first quarter and the 5.8 percent rate expected by economists.
number of employed people rose 3.7 percent year-over-year in the second
quarter, the same rate as in the previous quarter. Economists had
expected the number of employed people to increase 4 percent.
quarter-over-quarter basis, employment increased 0.4 percent, which was
slower than the 0.9 percent in the first quarter and the 0.7 percent
Meanwhile, the participation rate fell to 68.9
percent from 69.2 percent in the first quarter. Economists expected the
participation rate to rise to 69.3 percent.
AUDIO - Currency Markets with Rick Wright (based on fxstreet article)
As trading ranges plummet with most currencies, Master trader, Rick Wright joins Merlin
to discuss how he is adapting. He offers some personal insights into
how traders should modify plans and tactics to find trading
opportunities when seemingly none exist. Merlin and Rick also look at
the Euro, Yen, and Pound for potential trading opportunities.