Hong Kong June Inflation At 4-Month High :
Hong Kong's consumer price inflation accelerated to a four-month
high in June, data released by the Census and Statistics Department
The consumer price index rose 4.1 percent
year-on-year in June, faster than a 3.9 percent increase in May. The
figure matched economists' forecasts.
The underlying inflation
rate, that excludes price changes due to government's one-off measures,
was 4 percent in June. This was higher than 3.8 percent recorded in May.
This increase in the core inflation rate can mainly be
attributed to sharp increases in prices of fresh vegetables and private
housing rentals, the statistical office said.
inflation is still subject to modest upside risks in the coming months
as the lagged effects of the rise in private housing rentals during 2012
will continue to feed through, a government spokesperson said in a
Data showed that food prices increased 4.3 percent
year-on-year in June, while housing costs jumped 6.3 percent from last
year. Prices of electricity, gas and water increased 6.7 percent.
Transport charges increased 2 percent annually in June and costs of clothing and footwear rose 1.1 percent.
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.07.22 16:08
2013-07-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
And this is my trade for EURUSD - I was trading exact this news event :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.22
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
U.S. Existing Homes Sales Down Slightly In June :
U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in June, industry data revealed Monday morning.
National Association of Realtors said June existing home sales on a
seasonally adjusted basis fell 1.2% to an annual rate of 5.08 million
from a downwardly revised 5.14 million in May.
Analysts were expecting existing home sales to rise to around 5.25 million.
the modest decline, the June rate was second-highest since November
2009, as buyers scrambled to lock in low interest rates that have been
on the rise this summer.
Aspects of the NAR report showed the
housing market continues to improve. Listed inventory is 7.6 percent
below a year ago, and the median price of a home was $214,200, a 13.5
percent gain from year-earlier levels.
I just want to say that - basicly - this [USD - Existing Home Sales] news event is low impacted one (by definition). But as no any significant news events for today so this news event became very important. As we say in Russia : in the country of the blind one-eyed man is a king
I just want to remind about same cane with the other news event which is low impacted one but this news event may be very significant in some case - just read this post :
newdigital, 2013.07.11 16:03
And some comments ... some questions ...
Why this Jobless Claims is high impacted news event for some economic calendar, and some calendar is having it as low impacted? Because initially - this news event is low impacted by definition (if we are talking about how this news event should move the price by itself ony). But as this news event (value of it) is connected with the other news so the people/traders/market understands this event as high impacted from time to time.
As to the calendars so there are 2 kinds of economic calendar:
Metatrader 5 calendar is analytical calendar as I understand it.
Forecasting data ... why is it so different from one calendar to an other one, but some of forecasting data are the same ones? because some forecasting data are announced in almost official way so that is why those data may be same value for any calendar for any website. But most of forecasting data values are not announced - they are just discussed before news events on different way. So, analytists are placing his own forecasting data based on something. By the way, forecasting data is not very different one from one calendar to the other one.
Japan Election Somewhat Bullish for Gold Prices :
Although Japan’s election results are seen as bullish for gold, it
will only have a secondary effect on the yellow metal, said analysts.
On Sunday, Japanese election results showed that Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition won a comfortable majority in the
upper house of parliament. The Liberal Democratic Party now has control
of both chambers, which some analysts have said is a strong mandate for
the government to continue to move ahead with its economic reforms.
Abe’s economic plan, dubbed “Abenomics,” has been to target
inflation through extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies and
private investments. Although the inflationary pressures are positive
for gold prices, most of the focus still remains on what is happening in
the U.S. economy.
“The election result is not bearish but I think in the bigger
world it won’t have much of an impact,” said Michael Widmer, metals
strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The lack of inflationary
pressures in the west is what’s driving gold prices.”
Matthew Turner, precious metals analyst at Macquarie Commodity
Research agreed that stability in Japan’s economic policies is
considered “second tier,” in the global market place.
George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist
with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures said the stability in global
monetary policy is one of that factors that is helping to push gold
prices higher Monday. Not only will the Bank of Japan have continued
support for its aggressive monetary policy, but the Federal Reserve has
been more constant with its message since the June 19 meeting, he said.
However, he said gold’s move past $1,300 an ounce is more from pent up demand as prices stabilized around $1,200.
As of 12:24 p.m. EDT, spot gold was trading at $1,334.00, up $37.30 or 2.88% on the day.
“The market has been looking for a leg up in prices in a very
serious way,” he said. “Whether it’s Japan, the Fed, China, no matter
where investors look they see a reason to buy gold.”
For now it looks like $1,200 appears the floor in the market
as there doesn’t seem to be much left that could drag markets lower,
said Gero. He added that one of the only things that might drive gold
lower is less demand in Asia or other countries targeting gold to
improve their balance sheets similar to what is happening in India.
On July 10, the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy
statement, which said it’s seeing some signs of improvement in the
economy after aggressive bonding buying program was announced in April.
For the first time in two years the central bank used the word “recover”
in its statement.
"With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to
recover moderately on the back of the resilience in domestic demand and
the pick-up in overseas economies,” the central bank said in its
China Working Quietly To Buy Up Gold :
The Fed’s preferred measures of inflation are so low they’re in the Fed’s panic zone. What gives?
“There’s an ideal playbook, and it would look something like this,” James Rickards, author of the New York Times bestseller Currency Wars,
explained. “You’d have higher inflation than we have today, but not
super high. It might be in the 3-4% range. GDP of maybe 5%, which is
pretty high, and then that would bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio so the
United States doesn’t look like Greece.”
The result would be a cheaper dollar, which would help exports and
get the inflation the Fed wants. “And you’d have negative real interest
rates,” he added, “which is to say inflation would be higher than the
nominal rate — so let’s say inflation 3.5% and a nominal rate of maybe
2.5%, you’d have 1% negative rates.”
None of that is happening. There’s no inflation. In fact, the Fed is
talking about deflation. Instead of a weaker dollar, we have a stronger
one. Interest rates are rising, but without any inflation, we’re getting
positive real rates.
Rickards thinks the Fed is way off the mark about the economy’s
health. Bernanke thinks the economy is in much better shape than it
really is. “You look at the Fed’s forecasts for the last four years,
they were wrong every time, and they were wrong by a lot, meaning why
should we believe the forecast now? They’re not going to taper.”
After September, Bernanke will be a lame duck. That means his last
Board of Governors meeting will be in January. “We can’t be certain of
this,” Rickards qualified, “but it seems very unlikely that he’s going
to do anything dramatic on his way out the door. If Bernanke actually
does taper in September, which I don’t expect, it’s going to be a shock
to the markets, and we’re going to see more of a drawdown in gold, a
drawdown in stocks.”
From the Fed, we pivoted to gold. The People’s Bank of China last revealed its total gold holdings in April 2009 — 1,054 tonnes — and they could use it as a weapon in the currency wars.
“If you’re China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent
about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up,” says
Rickards. He compared China’s strategy to a game of Texas hold ’em.
“You want a big pile of chips. The U.S. has a big pile of chips, Europe
has a big pile of chips. The U.S. has 8,000 tonnes of gold, 17 members
of the euro system have 10,000 tonnes. China at 1,000 tonnes is not a
player, but at 5,000 tonnes, they are a player.”
According to his best information, China is there already. To be
clear, no one really knows, except for maybe a member of the Communist
Party, says Jim. “But I have spoken to a number of sources in Asia,” he
says. “I’ve spoken to a number of people who are very close to the
physical market, I’ve done my own investigations. Every time I have an
estimate and try to verify it, what I get back is that I’m wrong on the
So he expects that come April 2014, China will announce that it owns 5,000 tonnes of gold.
“That should be an earthquake because even the gold deniers, the gold
doubters, are going to have to sit up and take notice. Either the
Chinese are dopes, which they’re not, or people will start to get gold,
which I think they will.”
If these scenarios played out, gold would go a lot higher. Jim told
us it could go up in a very short span of time, say, 90 days or at the
most six months.
“The world of $4,000 gold is the world of $400 oil, $100 silver,
higher prices for copper, corn, wheat and everything else,” he
continued. “In other words, it’s a world of very high inflation in which
the value of your retirement funds and your annuities have been wiped
In that case, there will be winners and losers. As Mr. Rickards
explains, the winners will include those who hold gold. “That’s going to
be a very small minority. It’s a small minority today. It might get a
little bit larger, but that’s not most of the population.”
The losers will be everyone else. “So,” Jim explains, “you’re going
to have this resentment, this political resentment, where the vast
majority of the people who just sort of took it on the chin are going to
be looking at a small number of people who protected themselves, and
they’re going to say that’s not fair. And we’ve seen this before.
Congress has a way of dealing with it, which is a windfall profits tax.”
He was quick to add that laws like that don’t happen overnight —
there’s a legislative process that bogs it down. “Secondly,” he adds,
“you should be able to see it coming and maybe pivot out.”
2013-07-23 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - BBA Mortgage Approvals]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
The number of mortgage or home loans collectively approved
by members of the British Bankers Association (BBA). This figure is
published monthly by the BBA, and is considered to be an important
leading indicator about the state of the housing market in the United
A rising number of mortgage approvals would usually indicate a growing
or healthy housing market, while a decline in the number of mortgage
approvals would imply that the housing market is sluggish. The BBA is
the main trade association for the U.K. banking and financial services
U.K. BBA Mortgage Approvals Increase In June
The numbers of approvals for house purchase and remortgaging
continued the upward trend seen since the turn of the year as assistance
schemes for mortgage lending helped first-time buyers, the British
Bankers' Association said Tuesday.
Mortgage approvals totaled
37,278 in June compared to 36,290 in the previous month. But the figure
was below the 38,300 level forecast by economists. Re-mortgage,
meanwhile, decreased slightly to 20,478 from 20,670 a month ago.
total number of mortgages including house purchases, re-mortgage and
other secured borrowing rose to 66,917 from 65,993 last month.
statistics director, David Dooks said, "Second quarter GDP is expected
to have strengthened and as economic conditions improve the banks are
providing the finance to help growth."
"However, household savings, though still growing at 5 percent, seem to be slowing," said Dooks.
2013-07-23 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Retail Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
Canadian retail sales leap – USD/CAD falls towards 1.03 :
The volume of retail sales in Canada in June jumped by 1.9%, and core
sales jumped by 1.2$. These are excellent numbers. Sales were expected
to rise by 0.4% after a rise of 0.1% in May. Core sales was predicted to
advance by 0.1% after a drop of 0.3%.
USD/CAD traded lower, at 1.0332, after reaching the lowest levels in
over a month. The pair fell with a gap and is approaching the round
number of 1.03. The low has been 1.0301 so far.
The Canadian dollar certainly has reasons to rise.
1.0360 works as resistance and 1.03 as initial support. Oil prices
have also supported the loonie. Below 1.03, 1.0250 is weak support,
followed by 1.02.
2013-07-23 13:00 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - House Price Index (HPI)]
USD House Price Index is low impacted news event so that is why we did not have any significant movement for this news.
Many investors are looking/taking about Apple today so this is some press release for example (from Forbes) :
Apple 'Uninspiring' Earnings May Provide Hint About When New Products Will Ship :
Apple is expected to report a drop in profit and flat sales when it
releases third-quarter earnings today, although the results could get a
lift on better-than-expected iPhone demand.
Analysts on average expect Apple to report sales of about $35.1
billion, little changed from $35 billion a year ago. Profit is expected
to be $7.31 a share, down from $9.32. For gross margin, a key measure of
profitability, analysts are counting on CEO Tim Cook to deliver 36.7
percent, which is at the high-end of Apple’s forecast of 36 to 37 percent for the quarter ended in June — but way down from the 42.8 percent it delivered in the third quarter of 2012.
But today’s Apple story won’t be just about the third-quarter
numbers, which Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says will likely be
“uninspiring.” Instead, analysts and investors are hoping that Cook, who
celebrates his second anniversary as CEO next month, will provide a
strong hint about when new products – including the update to the iPhone
– will be released. And that hint may come in the form of the sales
forecast that Apple gives for its fiscal fourth quarter ending in
“If guidance is weak, it suggests new products will likely be
announced in September or October, contributing to a lull in fourth
quarter sales and EPS,” says Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with Sanford C.
Bernstein & Co. “Conversely, strong guidance likely presages new
products beginning to ship in September, which could trigger positive
revisions and investor enthusiasm.”
Investors need a reason to be enthusiastic. After Apple’s shares
reached a record $702.10 in September, they’ve plummeted 39 percent on
concerns that Apple has lost its innovation edge, that rivals including
Google and Samsung are winning ground, and that the increased
competition in the market for smartphones and tablets, which together
account for more than 70 percent of Apple’s revenue, could push Apple to
offer lower-priced and less profitable products, further eating into
its gross margin.
For the fourth quarter, analysts, on average, are looking for gross
margin of 37 percent and sales of $37.6 billion – though Sacconaghi says
Apple’s sales forecast could be as low as $30 billion if no new
products ship in September or $40 billion or more if some are available
then. “It is possible that Apple might get a ‘free pass’ on weak Q4
guidance, particularly if it alludes to significant new offerings in
October,” says Sacconaghi. “But it will depend on how solid Q3 results
ultimately are and where Q4 guidance ultimately lands.”
The third-quarter may offer a surprise in that iPhone shipments may
be better than expected after Verizon yesterday reported iPhone
activations that topped analysts’ projections. Analysts on average are
looking for 3Q iPhone shipments of 26 to 27 million units.
Steve Milunovich of UBS expects “mediocre” guidance for the fourth
quarter, with the new iPhone 5S to be announced in late September or
Piper’s Munster expects Apple to introduce the iPhone 5S, a
less-expensive version of the iPhone for cost-conscious buyers, a smart
TV, a smartwatch, and the iPhone 6 with a larger screen over the next
six quarters. He believes the new iPhone will be released in the last
few weeks of September, but that won’t be enough to overcome a dip in
iPad sales as users hold off buying until new models of the tablet are
Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets is looking for the iPhone 5S
and a low-end iPhone, updates to the iPad and iPad mini, a deal to
distribute the iPhone through China Mobile, and announcements around a
smartTV and smartwatch in coming months. But all those potential new
products won’t translate into an uptick in the stock “until investors
obtain better visibility and understand new product launches,” Daryanani
said, noting that creates an opportunity for investors. “The recent
pullback on Apple’s stock creates an attractive entry point for
investors to benefit from Apple’s ability to sustain material revenue
and EPS growth over the next several years.”
Apple’s shares rose
$1.36, or less than 1 percent, in Nasdaq trading yesterday to close at
$426.31. The shares are down 20 percent so far this year.
2013-07-24 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Inflation Rises 0.4% On Quarter In Q2 :
Consumer prices in Australia added 0.4 percent in the second quarter
of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of
Statistics said on Wednesday.
That was unchanged from Q1 but shy of forecasts for a gain of 0.5 percent.
most significant increases in price for this quarter were for medical
and hospital services (3.4 percent), tobacco (3.0 percent), new dwelling
purchase by owner-occupiers (0.9 percent), furniture (4.8 percent) and
rents (1.1 percent).
The most significant offsetting price falls
this quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-4.0
percent) and automotive fuel (-3.1 percent).
Among other individual components, prices for clothing climbed 2.7 percent on quarter, followed by health care (1.9 percent), alcohol (1.3 percent), furniture (1.0 percent) and housing (0.6 percent).
a yearly basis, inflation gained 2.4 percent, below forecasts for 2.5
percent - which would have been unchanged from the three months prior.
the individual components, prices for health care spiked 6.6 percent on
year, followed by education (5.7 percent), housing (5.3 percent),
alcohol (4.0 percent) and food (1.1 percent).
addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that the Q2 trimmed mean
was up 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year - in line with
forecasts after adding 0.3 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year in
the previous three months.
Also, the RBA's weighted median added
0.7 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year. That compares to
forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on
year after rising 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year in Q1.
the release of the data, the Australian dollar fell against other major
currencies, trading near 0.9273 against the greenback, 92.37 against
the yen, 1.4247 against the euro and 1.1595 against the kiwi.
losses have accelerated, however, following the disappointing results
of China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for July - which came in with a
score of 47.7 against expectations for 48.2, which would have been
unchanged from June.