Press review - page 6

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

It was the following high impacted news event at nigh:

2013-06-19 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

If actual > forecast data - is it good for NZD. Forecast data was 0.6% and actrual data was 0.3% (see latest resease here)

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NZDUSD, M1, 2013.06.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_55353.png

NZDUSD, M1, 2013.06.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



New Zealand Economy Grows 0.3% In Q1 :

New Zealand's gross domestic product expanded 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.

That was shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 1.5 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 2012.

"The Canterbury rebuild boosted activity for construction and related services," GDP project manager Jason Attewell said. "The rest of the economy was a mixed bag, but we are coming off very strong growth in the previous quarter."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
The next news event to discuss :

2013-06-20 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sale]

If actual > forecast data - is it good for GBP. Forecast data was 0.8% and actrual data was 2.1% (see latest resease here)


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GBPUSD, M1, 2013.06.20

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50 pips

GBPUSD, M1, 2013.06.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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U.K. Retail Sales Recover At Stronger Than Expected Pace :

6/20/2013 4:56 AM ET

U.K. retail sales volume including automotive fuel grew 2.1 percent in May from a month ago, when it was down 1.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics showed Thursday. It was stronger than the expected 0.8 percent increase.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

We had the following news event at 14:00 GMT time (or 16:00 metaquotes demo server time) :

2013-06-20 14:00 GMT | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Index]

if actual > forecast = good for USD. Forecast was -0.6 and actual (according to the latest release here) was 12.5

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Philly Fed Index Unexpectedly Surges Up To Two-Year High In June :

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly increased in the month of June, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, with the index of activity in the sector climbing to a two-year high.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current activity jumped to a positive 12.5 in June from a negative 5.2 in May, with a positive reading indicating an increase in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to climb to a negative 1.0.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

We are going to have 2 news events today for CAD :

2013-06-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Core CPI] - actual (it will be released at 12:30 GMT time or 14:30 MQ time) > forecast (0.3%) is good for CAD

2013-06-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Core Retail Sales] - actual (it will be released at 12:30 GMT time or 14:30 MQ time) > forecast (0.0%) is good for CAD

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So, just read this small article about Trading the Canada Consumer Price Report :

The headline reading for Canadian inflation is expected to increase an annualized 0.9% in May, and the faster rate of price growth may prop up the loonie should the data renew speculation for higher borrowing costs. However, we may see Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz retain a wait-and-see approach in the second-half of the year amid the slowing recovery, and the central bank adopt a more neutral tone in the coming months in an effort to further strengthen the real economy.


As Canadian price growth is expected to pick up in May, we may see the USDCAD continue to come off of trendline resistance, and the wedge/triangle formation may continue to take shape in the second-half of the year as the BoC retains a neutral stance for monetary policy. However, should the inflation report disappoint, we may see the upward trending channel from earlier this year foster a bullish breakout in the exchange rate, and the pair may continue to track higher over the coming months amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Just to read something during the weekend - The Week Ahead: Will July Be Better For Stocks?

June so far has been a tough month for stocks. The S&P is down around 2.5%, although it was able to close the week above the lows.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been down slightly in June, including a 5.2% loss in 2010 and an 8.55% slide in 2008. Over the past ten years, the best was 2012′s gain of 3.99%.

So what about July? Here, the record is a bit better, as the S&P was up 34 years and down 29, with an average gain since 1950 of 0.8%. Since 2003, the best year was 2009, when we saw a 7.24% gain; 2004 was the worst, as the S&P lost 3.28%.


sdsd

The Week Ahead: Will July Be Better For Stocks?
The Week Ahead: Will July Be Better For Stocks?
  • Tom Aspray
  • www.forbes.com
June so far has been a tough month for stocks. The S&P is down around 2.5%, although it was able to close the week above the lows. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been down slightly in June, including a 5.2% loss in 2010 and an 8.55% slide in 2008. Over the past ten years, the best was 2012's gain of 3.99%. So what about July? Here, the record is a bit better, as the S&P was up 34 years and down 29, with an average gain since 1950 of 0.8%. Since 2003, the best year was 2009, when we saw a 7.24% gain; 2004 was the worst, as the S&P lost 3.28%. The seasonal trend (using data since 1930) shows that from the late June lows, the minor trend (line a), is generally upward until September, which is statistically the worst month of the year. Stocks generally peak in the middle of September-remember the high of September 14, 2012?
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Jeff Gundlach: 3 Tips For Bond Investors

Bond guru Jeff Gundlach was on CNBC Wednesday and gave three interesting tips for bond investors. Here they are:

  1. Investors are jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.
  2. The only place you are going to make money over the next few weeks and perhaps months is in the “most hated asset class” which is long term US government bonds.
  3. The first week of August could be huge for the bond market.

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Read more on Forber, or watch the full interview here

Jeff Gundlach: 3 Tips For Bond Investors
Jeff Gundlach: 3 Tips For Bond Investors
  • Marc Prosser
  • www.forbes.com
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 25: A trader (R) works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange after the Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates on April 25, 2012 in New York City. The Fed announced it would leave key interest rates unchanged. (Image credit: Getty Images via [...]
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Well ... just to compare my

technical analysis for USDJPY which I made right now here USDJPY Technical Analysis 23.06 - 30.06 : Rally Finishing to Ranging with

some technical analysis which was made by one famous portal (just to keep everything in one place) -

USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 24 - 28 :


The dollar ended the week sharply higher against the yen on Friday amid expectations the Federal Reserve will begin to taper off its bond-buying program by the end of this year.

The dollar strengthened against the yen, with USD/JPY climbing 3.82% for the week to settle at 97.88, the largest weekly gain since December 2009.

The pair is likely to find support at 96.85, Friday’s low and resistance at 99.45, the high of June 6.


Tuesday, June 25


The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as closely watched reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, June 26

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter economic growth as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 27

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims along with data on personal income and expenditure, which is to be followed by private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, June 28

Japan is to release a series of economic data, including reports on household spending, inflation, retail sales and preliminary data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Just one man say ...

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Forbes : Obama: 'Thanks Ben, But Time To Go' (And Other Quotes Of The Week)


Obama strongly suggested “he would not renominate Bernanke” in a PBS Charlie Rose interview which aired Monday (LA Times): "I think Ben Bernanke’s done an outstanding job. Ben Bernanke’s a little bit like Bob Mueller, the head of the FBI, where he’s already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to."

Then there was the Fed statement and press conference on Wednesday, where interpretations of Bernanke’s “tapering remarks” were all over the lot but the market’s reaction was far from unclear, triggering the biggest two-day selloff of the year.



Goldman Sachs’ economists noted “the shock and surprise” in the Fed statement (CNBC) : "The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) was more hawkish than we had expected,’ wrote Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn. ‘Our takeaway is that the risk to our forecast of quantitative easing tapering starting in December has increased."



TD Securities rates analyst Gennadiy Goldberg referred to the markets’ overreaction, according to the NY Times, saying, “As soon as you give the market anything to chew on, they are going to tear the limb off.”


“As I’ve said, Angela and I don’t exactly look like previous German and American leaders.” –President Obama in his speech this week in Berlin at the Brandenburg Gate, referring to Chancellor Merkel. Some cynics accused the President of trying to escape domestic controversy through his the trip to Europe, as has been a trick of many Presidents of the past. But most criticism focused on “warmed-over citizen-of-the-world rhetoric, poorly delivered,” (Commentary Magazine) and Obama’s unfulfilled “potential” since his historic and rousing Berlin speech of 2008, as Yahoo noted in part: "The power of Obama’s biography has dimmed in the shadow of controversy…’I still have time to fulfill my promises,’ he seemed to be saying. ‘The ones I haven’t kept, they aren’t broken, just deferred."

Obama: 'Thanks Ben, But Time To Go' (And Other Quotes Of The Week)
Obama: 'Thanks Ben, But Time To Go' (And Other Quotes Of The Week)
  • David Wismer
  • www.forbes.com
Most asset classes took a drubbing this week, as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke caught flak from all sides.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Just to remind that we are going to have the following news event at 10:00 am MQ demo server time :

2013-06-24 08:00 GMT | [EUR - IFO Business Climate]

If actual > forecast = good for EUR. Past data was 105.7 according to press release, forecast is 105.9. Actual? We will see it at 08:00 am GMT time (or 10:00 am MQ server time)

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European Economics Preview: German Ifo Business Confidence Due

6/24/2013 1:44 AM ET

Business sentiment from Germany is the major report due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is slated to issue consumer and business sentiment survey data for June. The composite indicator, that reflects overall sentiment among both consumers and businesses, rose to -3.6 in May from -5.3 in April.

Half an hour later, Statistics Netherlands is scheduled to release producer confidence.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's Ifo business sentiment is due. Economists forecast business confidence to rise to 105.9 in June from 105.7 in May. The current conditions index is seen at 109.7 compared to 110 a month ago.

In the meantime, Italy's consumer sentiment is due. The consumer confidence index fell to 85.9 in May from 86.3 in April.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
Actual is 105.9 according to the latest press release - so the actual = forecast :)
CESifo Group Munich - Ifo Business Climate Index
  • www.cesifo-group.de
The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed early indicator for economic development in Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index is published monthly. Detailed results are published in ifo Konjunkturperspektiven. A summary is published as "Results of the Ifo Business Survey" in ifo Schnelldienst.
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