Press review - page 138

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)

EUR/USD in consolidation mode below key level

  • EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to lower range since failing earlier in the month at the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline in the 1.3900 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the Euro while over 1.3730
  • A move through 1.3900 is required to signal that a new move higher is underway
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • Only weakness below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 would turn us negative on the Euro
Price & Time: End of Month is Key For Gold
Price & Time: End of Month is Key For Gold
  • Kristian Kerr
  • www.dailyfx.com
The compression in volatility in the FX space is making cycle analysis much more challenging as identifying what is a significant swing point in such an environment is extremely difficult. The good news is that historically such low levels of vol are usually followed by periods of high vol as it reverts to its mean. The second half of 2014...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

USDCAD Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)

USD/CAD nearing key resistance zone

  • USD/CAD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1.0855 area earlier in the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0910
  • Interim resistance is eyed around 1.1030, but a more important pivot come into play at a key Gann/Fibonacci convergence in the 1.1055/65 region
  • Minor cycle turn windows are seen tomorrow and at the end of the week
  • A move under 1.0910 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
USD/CAD Strategy: Like being square. May look to buy on weakness later in the week.

InstrumentSupport 2Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
USD/CAD 1.0910 1.0960 1.1015 1.1030 1.1065
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Dollar Holds Steady against Counterparts as Markets Reopen



The dollar edged higher to its highest level in two weeks against its peers, including the yen on Tuesday as the markets opened after the long Easter weekend.

"The market is making its way back from holiday mode," Sue Trinh, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets told Reuters.

The yen was weighed by Monday’s report that indicated that Japan export orders declined, pressurizing the policymakers to consider rolling out more economic stimulus.

The dollar index edged up to 79.957, after earlier reaching 79.988, its strongest point since April 8. The dollar advanced 0.1 percent to 102.66 yen, after earlier touching to a high of 102.73 yen, a two-week high. The euro, which briefly touched 141.84 yen yesterday, its strongest in two weeks, was also up 0.1 percent to 141.63 yen.

The U.S. dollar also advanced against the New Zealand dollar, which hovered at a two-and-half week low of $0.8555 yesterday.

The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in 14 months against the greenback at 6.2335 a dollar as the market remained nervous over China’s economic slowdown and recent interventions by the authorities to prevent the yuan from strengthening. The People’s Bank of China fixed a lower border line of the range within which the yuan is permitted to trade.

So far, the yuan has plunged about 2.84 percent versus the dollar since January this year.

The market is also waiting to hear a keynote speech by European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi in Amsterdam on Thursday. Draghi has recently been quoted as saying that monetary easing will be rolled out if the euro continues to strengthen against its peers, including the dollar.

Investors are also awaiting data on China’s manufacturing industry, inflation figures in Australia and New Zealand’s interest rate review in the next two days.

FOREX-Dollar holds gains in quiet trade, yen limps after export data
FOREX-Dollar holds gains in quiet trade, yen limps after export data
  • www.reuters.com
SYDNEY/TOKYO, April 22 (Reuters) - The dollar inched up to fresh two-week highs against both the yen and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, following a subdued session overnight with many global financial centres shut for the Easter long-weekend. "The market is making its way back from holiday mode," said Sue Trinh, currency strategist at...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2014-04-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sale]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop To Lowest Level Since July 2012

Existing home sales in the U.S. showed a modest decrease in the month of March, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday, although the annual rate of sales still came in above economist estimates.

The report said existing home sales edged down 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in March from 4.60 million in February. Economists had been expecting existing home sales to drop to an annual rate of 4.56 million.

With the modest decrease, existing home sales fell for the seventh time in eight months and hit their lowest level since July of 2012.

NAR also said the rate of existing home sales is now 7.5 percent below the 4.96 million-unit pace in March of 2013.

The modest monthly decrease came as increases in existing home sales in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in sales in the West and South.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted that current existing home sales activity is underperforming by historical standards.

"There really should be stronger levels of home sales given our population growth," Yun said. "In contrast, price growth is rising faster than historical norms because of inventory shortages."

The report showed that the median existing home price was $198,500 in March, up 5.4 percent from $188,300 in February and up 7.9 percent from $184,000 in the same month a year ago.

NAR noted that distressed homes accounted for 14 percent of March sales, down from 16 percent in February and 21 percent in March of 2013.

"With rising home equity, we expect distressed homes to decline to a single-digit market share later this year," Yun said.

The report also showed that there were 1.99 million existing homes available for sale at the end of March compared to the 1.90 million available for sale at the end of February.

The March housing inventory represents 5.2 month of supply at the current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in February.

Wednesday morning, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of March.

Economists expect new home sales to climb to an annual rate of 455,000 in March after dropping to a rate of 440,000 in February.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

2014-04-23 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia CPI Rises 0.6% On Quarter In Q1

Consumer prices in Australia collected 0.6 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was weaker than forecasts for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for tobacco (+6.7 percent), automotive fuel (+4.1 percent), secondary education (+6.0 percent), tertiary education (+4.3 percent), medical and hospital services (+1.9 percent) and pharmaceutical products (+6.1 percent).

These rises were partially offset by falls in prices for furniture (-4.3 percent), maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (-3.3 percent), international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4 percent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4 percent).

The tobacco price increase was caused by the federal excise tax rise that went into effect December 1.

Education prices have risen with the commencement of the new school year, the bureau said.

Rises for medical and hospital services and pharmaceutical products were a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme at the start of each calendar year.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices gained 2.9 percent - also below expectations for 3.2 percent after showing 2.6 percent in the three months prior.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

2014-04-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

==========

China HSBC Flash PMI For April Is 48.3, Up From 48.0 In March As Slowdown Continues

China's factory activity shrank for the fourth straight month in April, signaling economic weakness into the second quarter, a preliminary survey showed Wednesday. But the pace of decline eased, helped by policy steps to arrest the slowdown.

Analysts see initial signs of stabilization in the economy due to the government's targeted measures to underpin growth, but believe more policy support may be needed as structural reforms put additional pressures on activity.

The HSBC/Markit flash Purchasing Managers Index for April rose to 48.3 from March's final reading of 48.0, still below the 50 line separating expansion from contraction.

"It's generally in line (with expectations), reflecting that the growth momentum is stabilizing," said Zhou Hao, China economist at ANZ in Shanghai, who expected economic growth to pick up slightly to 7.5 percent in the second quarter.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Raise Rates for Second Straight Meeting.
  • Market Participants Pricing 97% Chance for 25bp Rate Hike According to OIS.

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 15 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver another 25bp rate hike in April, but the statement accompanying the rate decision may have a greater impact on the NZD/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:




Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, fresh commentary from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler may keep the New Zealand dollar afloat as the board retains a hawkish tone for monetary policy, and NZD/USD may continue to carve higher highs & higher lows should the central bank continue to deliver a series of rate hikes in 2014.

The RBNZ may lay out a more detailed exit strategy amid the pickup in global trade along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market, and a further shift in the policy outlook should prop-up the higher-yielding currency as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

However, the RBNZ may sounds less hawkish this time around as the cooling housing market reduces the threat of an asset-bubble, and the New Zealand dollar may face a larger decline in the days ahead should the central bank soften its approach in normalizing monetary policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk


Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Pledges More Rate Hikes for 2014

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a hawkish statement to consider a long NZD/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long Kiwi trade, buy NZD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bearish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Softens Hawkish Tone for Monetary Policy
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision
NZD/USD Daily


  • Fails to Preserve Ascending Channel; Searching for Higher Low?
  • Bearish RSI Divergence Highlights Risk for Larger Decline
  • Interim resistance: 0.8750-60 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim support: 0.8430 (23.6% retracement) to 0.8460 (38.2% expansion)

March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

NZDUSD M5 : 115 pips price movement by NZD - Interest Rate :


As expected, the RBNZ upped its official cash rate to 2.75% at the March meeting from 2.50% previously. Although we saw chop at the print, the NZD/USD rate went as high as 130 pips from the rate at the release. Once again it is expected that we will see a 25bps hike in rates, although weaker than expected CPI data for the month of March does pose a risk. The RBNZ could choose to hold back on a rate hike and let such a failure to raise rates weaken the Kiwi exchange rate. A surprise of more than 25bps in hikes could help the Kiwi regain strength lost over the past two weeks.

NZD/USD Holds 0.8550 Support- Need Hawkish RBNZ for Higher High
NZD/USD Holds 0.8550 Support- Need Hawkish RBNZ for Higher High
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 15 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver another 25bp rate hike in April, but the statement accompanying the rate decision may have a greater impact on the NZD/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Indeed, fresh commentary...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Basicly this thread is not related to Cryptocurrencies. But as many traders are interesting in it (I see it from big popular thread in russian part of the forum) so it is most recent news related to it. Just one time only ... (other related Cryptocurrencies' news please post in your profile or in future blogs).

Just for information

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Cryptocurrency Trading News: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin Stumble; Mastercoin Crashes


Last 24 hours were though full of joyous moments, but the cryptocurrency markets once again fell on a blink of speculations. This time, it is the much-talked-about Safecoin presale whose uncertainties are seeming to affect the entire cryptocurrency clan.
The sale guidelines released by MaidSafe said “the sale event will run until ten percent of all Safecoin (429,496,729) are sold or 30 days have passed, which ever happens first”. The company had promised to offer attractive leverages on both Bitcoin and Mastercoin for Maidsafecoin, but soon after the presale, the company dumped Mastercoin from the sale, leaving its market value in havoc.
While Bitcoin was able to sustain its value throughout yesterday, owing to US-based private equity firm NEA’s decision to invest a huge capital in Bitcoin companies, its altcoins including Litecoin, Dogecoin and others were not so fortunate. Here is how the market is looking for now:

BTC/USD

The BTC/USD is on a downtrend since Monday, after reaching to its peak at around $501.525. The pair gradually faced a series of pushes and pullbacks in last 24 hours, meanwhile finding resistance at $494 and support at $491. Right before entering today’s trading hours, the pair’s value once though fell slightly below the $490 mark, but recovered in the following hours.
At this time of writing, the BTC/USD pair is trading at around $490, falling 0.5% since 0000 UTC today.

Litecoin, Dogecoin also stumbles

Similar dips were seen in the altcoins as well. The LTC/USD once again slipped 1.55%, reaching $12.05 in the last 24 hours after touching the peak value of $12.35 yesterday. The downtrend is similar to the one of Bitcoin, for obvious reasons.
The DOGE/USD meanwhile fell a little too much within last 24 hours. The pair is currently trading around $0.00055, while at yesterday’s close it was trading at $0.00058.

Mastercoin Falls Ominously


As MaidSafe withdrew Mastercoin from its Safecoin presale, the MSC/USD fell massively around 50%, taking its value from the week’s peak $87 to as low as $50. The scandalized crash was never even reported by MaidSafe which further sent negative shivers throughout the cryptocurrency market.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)



  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Rise for Second Consecutive Month.
  • Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders to Rebound Following 1.4% Decline in February.

Another 2.0% rise in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may generate a bullish reaction in the dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.


Why Is This Event Important:

Data prints pointing to a stronger recovery may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize policy sooner rather than later, and we may see Fed Chair Janet Yellen soften her dovish tone for monetary policy as a growing number of central bank turn increasingly upbeat towards the economy.

The expansion in private sector credit along with the ongoing improvement in household sentiment may highlight increased demand for large-ticket items, and a positive development may foster a bullish outlook for the greenback as growth prospects improve.

However, subdued wage growth paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may continue to drag on private consumption, and a dismal Durable Goods report may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk


Bullish USD Trade: Orders Climb 2.0% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors a short EUR/USD position, sell pair with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable objective
Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Falter
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a short dollar trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish USD trade, just in reverse
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily


  • Remains in Bullish Trend, But Currently Stuck in Wedge/Triangle Formation
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6 expansion) to 1.3660 (23.6 retracement)

February 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders :



With volatility at lows not seen since just before the financial crisis in the EUR/USD pair, it is no surprise that the last Durable Goods orders figure did not move markets substantially. The release came in at 2.2%, above market expectations calling for a 0.8% increase. In the context of yesterday’s disappointing housing print, we may see greater follow through if we do see the print diverge from market expectations of 2.0% for March.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Tec hnical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)

The EUR/USD fell briefly below 1.3800 following mixed US data but quickly bounced to trade nearly flat on the day.

The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3790 but found support and managed to regain the 1.3800 mark. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3815, little changed since opening. From a wider perspective however, the EUR/USD continues to trade within this week's range lacking follow-through either side of the board. In the macroeconomic domain, US durable goods orders came in above expectations while Draghi sounded quite dovish earlier today.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, next supports are seen at 1.3790 (Apr 24 low), 1.3736 (Apr 8 low) and 1.3700 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.3842 (Apr 24 high), 1.3854 (Apr 23 high), 1.3864 (Apr 17 high) and 1.3880 (Apr 11 closing price).