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Sergey Golubev
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96763
Sergey Golubev  

Just something to read as post-factum - US Dollar strength forecasted to take global forex markets into the weekend


The US dollar (Currency:USD) is the driving force on global markets on Friday afternoon in London. A look at the spot markets shows:

  • The pound to US dollar exchange rate is half a percent in the red at 1.5642 at 14:22 in London.
  • The euro to US dollar exchange rate is 0.47 pct down at 1.3313.
  • The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate is 0.24 pct lower at 0.9616.
  • The US dollar to Canadian dollar rate is 0.18 pct higher at 1.0178.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

Just something to read during the weekend

1. Oil price highest since January on Syria concerns


Oil rose to the highest level since January amid concerns about a possible escalation in Syria's civil war.

Benchmark oil for July delivery rose $1.16 to close at $97.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil finished the week with a gain of $1.82 a barrel, or 1.9 percent.

Oil's closing price was the highest since Jan. 30. But U.S. stock markets fell following lackluster reports on consumer confidence and industrial production. Among other commodities, gold and silver rose, while the prices for industrial metals dropped.

Drivers head into the weekend paying around the same for gas as they did a week ago. The national average of $3.625 is about 9 cents higher than at this time last year.


2. Metals rise broadly; crude oil near high for year


Gold for August delivery rose $9.80 to $1,387.60 an ounce. Silver for July delivery rose 37.1 cents to $21.954 an ounce. July copper rose 1.65 cents to $3.2015 a pound. July platinum rose 30 cents to $1,447.40 an ounce and September palladium rose 65 cents to $731.70 an ounce.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

Forbes: Can The World Afford Higher Interest Rates?

What explains the tumultuous market action of the past week? Put simply, there have been escalating fears that U.S. Federal Reserve will cut back on its US$85bn a month stimulus program. This has led to rising U.S. bond yields over the past month, thereby putting upward pressure on yields around the world.

Cutting back on QE would mean reducing the printed money that the Fed has been using to buy bonds. That would result in less liquidity, less money in the financial system. The printed money has helped support asset prices, particularly stock and bond markets. Less liquidity would reduce this support.

Can The World Afford Higher Interest Rates?
Can The World Afford Higher Interest Rates?
  • James Gruber
  • www.forbes.com
The answer is no as higher rates on developed world debt would crush their economies. And it would hurt less indebted emerging markets too.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

And just to continuing with this subject - from Forbes too : Jeff Gundlach: 3 Reasons Interest Rates Won't Head Much Higher

Reason #1: Global Growth is Slowing

Bond rates generally rise when growth is rising, causing inflation expectations to pick up and investors to demand a higher rate of return to compensate.

Reason #2: Inflation Expectations are falling again

To see what the market’s future inflation expectations are, traders often look at the 10 year breakeven rate, which subtracts the yield on a 10 year TIPS from the yield on a 10 year Treasury note.

Reason #3: The Fed is Not Going to Let Interest Rates Rise Much Higher

One of the biggest reasons the many have turned more optimistic about the US economy is that the housing market, which was at the center of the financial crisis, has started to turn around. One of the primary reasons why is that interest rates on mortgages have been at very low levels, making houses much more affordable for the average buyer

.

Jeff Gundlach: 3 Reasons Interest Rates Won't Head Much Higher
Jeff Gundlach: 3 Reasons Interest Rates Won't Head Much Higher
  • Marc Prosser
  • www.forbes.com
With the rate on the 10 year Treasury up around 50 basis points over the last month, many prominent bond investors (including PIMCO’s Bill Gross) have called an end to the decades long bond bull market.  Judging by his presentation earlier this week entitled “What in the World is Going on?” bond [...]
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

It may be interesting for the traders who are trading USDJPY: Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21


Monday, June 17

Japan is to release official data on tertiary industry activity, an important indicator of economic health. Australia is to produce a report on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

Tuesday, June 18

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, housing starts and consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the second day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Wednesday, June 19

Japan is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. The U.S. central bank is also to release its quarterly report on economic and inflation projections.

Thursday, June 20

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, June 21

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future direction of monetary policy.

Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The dollar ended the week sharply lower against the yen on Friday as weaker-than-expected U.S. data and uncertainty over the future of central bank stimulus bolstered safe haven demand for the yen. The dollar was lower against the yen for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, with USD/JPY dropping 1.26% to settle at 94.17...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

Next trading week is coming ... so - it is some more to read about fundamental news - Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke -

  • Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke
  • How Much Lower Can USD/JPY Fall?
  • EUR – Stalls Ahead of Key Inflection Point
  • GBP – 3 Decade BoE Veteran Announces Resignation
  • CAD – Hit by Surprise Decline in Manufacturing Data
  • NZD – Business PMI Hits 8 Year High
  • AUD – Oil Extends Gains, Gold Steady
Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke | BK Asset Management
  • 2013.06.14
  • Kathy Lien
  • www.bkassetmanagement.com
Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke How Much Lower Can USD/JPY Fall? EUR – Stalls Ahead of Key Inflection Point GBP – 3 Decade BoE Veteran Announces Resignation CAD – Hit by Surprise Decline in Manufacturing Data NZD – Business PMI Hits 8 Year High AUD – Oil Extends Gains, Gold Steady Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  
Just for EURUSD for the coming week: EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 17 - 21

Monday, June 17
The U.S. is to publish the Empire state manufacturing index.
Also Monday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the first day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Tuesday, June 18
The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone.
The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, housing starts and consumer price inflation.
Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the second day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Wednesday, June 19
The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. The U.S. central bank is also to release its quarterly report on economic and inflation projections.

Thursday, June 20
The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity. France and Germany are also to publish individual reports. In addition, Germany is to produce data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.


As to USDCAD for coming trading week so read this thread.

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Friday, paring back the week’s gains following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. EUR/USD hit highs of 1.3389 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since February 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3344 at the close on Friday, down 0.24% for the day and...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  
Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21


Monday, June 17

Japan is to release official data on tertiary industry activity, an important indicator of economic health. Australia is to produce a report on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.



Just about Tertiary Index - it was released at 23:50 yesterday night GMT time (or at 01:50 am today). If Actual data > forecasts - it is good for currency (for JPY in our case).

  • previous data was -0.2%
  • forecasts was 0.2%
  • actual data according to release made by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan = 0.0%


Japan Tertiary Industry Index Flat In April :

An index measuring tertiary industry activity in Japan was flat on month in April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, standing at a seasonally adjusted 99.7. That missed forecasts for a gain of 0.2 percent following the upwardly revised decline of 0.9 percent in March (originally -1.3 percent).



Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 17 - 21
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The dollar ended the week sharply lower against the yen on Friday as weaker-than-expected U.S. data and uncertainty over the future of central bank stimulus bolstered safe haven demand for the yen. The dollar was lower against the yen for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, with USD/JPY dropping 1.26% to settle at 94.17...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  
Can you 'get rich quick' from forex trading? :


Trading forex is a relatively new asset class for the general public and has only really become possible for most of us since the late 90's when many of us started getting the internet connected at home.

The bad news for many newbie traders is that just because they can, doesn't mean they should and unfortunately many find that out the hard way. They start trading with no education or experience and lose their cash - quick! These failed traders spread the word that "all traders lose money" and that "trading doesn't work". Just because it didn't work for them, obviously it doesn't work for anyone else right?

The reality of the matter is that trading is like any other profession, it takes practice, discipline, experience and hard work! And many people do succeed.

Out of interest - you may like to see this clip of a young chap called John Key making his living as a forex trader in his early years. Long before the 'Right Honourable' was added to his name.
:





This episode of current affairs show Close Up offers a fascinating portrait of 80s job du jour: foreign exchange dealer. The intrepid reporter heads into "the pit" (trading room) and chronicles the working life of a senior 'forex' dealer, 25-year-old squash-playing accountancy graduate, John Key. The "smiling assassin" (and future Prime Minister) is a now-familiar calm and earnest presence amongst the young cowboys playing for fortunes and Porsches in the heady pre-sharemarket crash world: "they're like addicts who eat, breathe and sleep foreign exchange dealing".

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96763
Sergey Golubev  

From Forbes : Celebrate Ben Bernanke, Buy A Few Dividend Stocks


Ben Bernanke, who deserves the Nobel prize for helping the U.S. to avoid a deep deflationary depression, cannot catch a break. First, he is demonized for for his quantitative easing program that naysayers predicted would sooner or later destroy the value of the American dollar, as well as the double whammy of creating an horrific hyper-inflation. Unrestrained QE, the magnificent addition of trillions in monetary reserves was supposed to climax with the end of the world.

Celebrate Ben Bernanke, Buy A Few Dividend Stocks
Celebrate Ben Bernanke, Buy A Few Dividend Stocks
  • Robert Lenzner
  • www.forbes.com
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (AFP/Getty Images via @daylife) Ben Bernanke, who deserves the Nobel prize for helping the U.S. to avoid a deep deflationary depression, cannot catch a break.  First, he is demonized for for his quantitative easing program that naysayers predicted would sooner or later destroy the value of [...]
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