Press review - page 84

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7 (based on investing.com article)

The dollar rose to 10-week highs against the euro on Friday as a slowdown in the annual rate of euro zone inflation in January fuelled fears over the threat of deflation in the euro area.

Monday, February 3

• In the euro zone, Spain and Italy are to publish data on manufacturing activity.
• In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce data on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, February 4

• In the euro zone, Spain is to release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, February 5

• The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, February 6

• Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
• The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on the trade balance.

Friday, February 7

• Germany is to publish reports on industrial production and the trade balance.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7 (based on investing.com article)

The pound ended the week lower against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday as indications that the U.S. recovery is gaining momentum and increased risk aversion underpinned dollar demand.

Monday, February 3

• The U.K. is also to publish data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.
• In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce data on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, February 4

• The U.K. is to publish data on construction sector activity, a leading economic indicator.
• The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, February 5

• The U.K. is also to release data on service sector activity, a leading economic indicator.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, February 6

• The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on the trade balance.

Friday, February 7

• The U.K. is to produce data on manufacturing and industrial production, as well as a report on the trade balance.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Prices Start The Week Soft As Chinese Celebrate Year Of The Horse (based on kitco article)

Gold prices could struggle during a relatively quiet Asian session as Chinese markets are closed in recognition of the new year, said analysts.

In electronic trading, Comex April gold futures opened Sunday evening at $1,242 an ounce, a gap lower from Friday’s electronic closing price of $1,245.60 per ounce. Prices have managed to rally from the weak open and as of 6:47 p.m. EST, April gold is at $1243.40 an ounce.

Analysts at ANZ Bank in Australia said that although Chinese markets are closed for the next week, they are expecting physical demand to remain low for at least two weeks and as a result are forecasting lower prices.

“With the Chinese absent, the market is likely to struggle to hold rallies,” they said in a research note.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-02-03 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -0.3%
• forecast data is 0%
• actual data is -2.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Building Approvals Dip 2.9% In December

The total number of building permits issued in Australia in December was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 16,141 and falling for the third straight month.

That missed forecasts for a contraction of 0.5 percent following the 1.5 percent decline in November.

On a yearly basis, building permits spiked 21.8 percent - also shy of estimates for an increase of 23.4 percent and down from the 22.2 percent surge in the previous month.

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market Support Is Fragile - 2 Indicators And 2 Strategies For Success If 2nd Shoe Falls (adapted from forbes article)

Indicator #1 – The headlines

Here are the many media descriptions of last week’s and January’s market performance: Stumble, tumble, decline, fall, drop, sink, sell-off, slip and slide. Notice what’s missing: “Dip.” The market is now beyond that shallow move. On the other hand, except in the eyes of a few, the more severe descriptors are missing – like dive, plunge and crash.

Indicator #2 – The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)

In 2013 and so far in 2014, most stocks and the stock market have tracked the 50-day SMA.

Investment strategy #1 – Don’t act too early

To accomplish the goal of buying low, wait until both indicators show worry has ramped up to the level of questioning stocks’ desirability. If stocks drop anew, the sense likely will be that something is amiss – not that we are simply having a normal shakeout following an exceptionally fine period.

Investment strategy #2 – Act quickly

When stocks or the market run into fundamental problems, quick bounce backs seldom follow price drops. Instead, it takes time for the future outlook to brighten before stock buying picks up. However, a drop in a bull market, growth period can have a bounce back because the price fall is investor-driven, and that can be reversed quickly.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-02-03 08:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 50.8
• forecast data is 51.5
• actual data is 52.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

Spanish Manufacturing Expands On Production, Orders

The Spanish manufacturing sector started 2014 on a positive footing, Markit Economics said Monday.

The seasonally adjusted Markit Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.2 in January from 50.8 in December. Moreover, the improvement in operating conditions in January was the strongest since April 2010.

The rate of growth in manufacturing output accelerated in January and was the fastest in close to three-and-a-half years. Total new business also grew at a sharper pace, with some panellists highlighting the impact of rising new export orders.

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold price 'to average $1,220 in 2014'

Some analysts expect price to fall below $1,000, while others are much more bullish

The gold price will average $1,219 an ounce this year, according to a survey of analysts.

The analysts expect the gold price to range between $1,067 and $1,379 this year, a report compiled by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) found.

Yesterday's gold price according to the LBMA's afternoon London "fixing" was $1,248.

Gold ended 2013 at $1,202, 28pc lower than at the beginning of the year, bringing to an end 12 consecutive years of price growth.

The most optimistic prediction for the gold price this year came from Martin Murenbeeld of Dundee Capital Markets in Canada, who said the price could go as high as $1,550, although he put the bottom of its possible price range at just $1,075.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-02-03 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 57.2
• forecast data is 57.0
• actual data is 56.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

UK manufacturing PMI grows for tenth consecutive month

UK manufacturing grew for a tenth consecutive month in January according to the latest PMI figures, with new orders and employment also rising.

Markit’s UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a survey compiled of more than 600 industrial companies, slid to 56.7 in January from December’s 57.2.

Despite the UK’s PMI hitting a three-month low, it was comfortably above the survey’s long-run average of 51.3, suggesting a strong start for the economy in the first quarter of 2014.

“Although the pace of output expansion has cooled slightly in recent months, growth is still tracking at one of the highest rates in the 22-year survey history,” said Rob Dobson, senior economist at PMI compiler Markit.

[Sergey Golubev]

I never know about this fundamental indicator ... so -

January barometer - (from wikipedia) : "The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. The January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972"

This is the page #16 of 2008 edition of this book (Stock Trader's Almanac 2008) :

This is January so ...

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-02-03 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 57.0
• forecast data is 56.0
• actual data is 51.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Manufacturing Index Indicates Notably Slower Growth In January

While the Institute for Supply Management released a report on Monday showing modest growth in U.S. manufacturing activity in the month of January, the pace of growth slowed much more than economists had been anticipating.

The ISM said its purchasing managers index fell to 51.3 in January from a revised 56.5 in December. A reading above 50 indicates continued growth in the manufacturing sector, but economists had expected the index to show a much more modest decrease to a reading of 56.0.

With the much steeper than expected decrease, the purchasing managers index fell to its lowest level since hitting 50.0 in May of 2013.