Press review - page 60

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY falls on uncertainty over Fed stimulus program

The dollar fell against the yen on Tuesday amid ongoing uncertainty as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will announce plans to scale back its USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases at its monetary policy meeting next week

[Sergey Golubev]

ECB's Nowotny: Monetary Policy Faces Limits In Stimulating Credit Demand

European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday that there are limits to what monetary policy can do to boost credit development.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) last meeting for 2013 may spark a bullish breakout in the NZDUSD should the central bank lay out a more detailed timeline for its exit strategy.

What’s Expected:
Time of release: 12/11/2013 20:00 GMT, 15:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: NZDUSD
Expected: 2.50%
Previous: 2.50%
DailyFX Forecast: 2.50%

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite talks of a currency intervention, Governor Graeme Wheeler may sound more hawkish this time around as the central bank prepares to normalize monetary policy in 2014, and the growing threats of an asset-bubble may prompt the RBNZ to implement a rate hike within the first-half of the following year in order to balance the risks surrounding the region.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Delivers Detailed Schedule for Normalization

• Need green, five-minute candle following a hawkish statement to consider a long NZDUSD trade
• If market reaction favors a long trade, buy NZDUSD with two separate position
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish NZD Trade: Wheeler Strengthens Verbal Intervention

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZDUSD trade
• Implement same strategy as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in opposite direction

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-10 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Unemployment Rate]

• past data is 5.7%
• forecast data is 5.8%
• actual data is 5.8% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Unemployment Rate 5.8% In November

Australia saw a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.8 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

[Sergey Golubev]

• Identify the trend to form a trading bias using 6 months of price data.
• Time your entries, and wait patiently for trading opportunities.
• Managing risk is an important step in trading the Daily Chart, plan accordingly

1. Find the Trend
2. Remain Patient
3. Use Larger Stops and Less Leverage

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales

What’s Expected:

• Time of release: 12/12/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
• Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
• Expected: 0.6%
• Previous: 0.4%
  
• Forecast: 0.4% to 0.8%

Why Is This Event Important:

Key data prints highlighting a more robust recovery may heighten bets for a small taper as market participants turn their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, and the central bank may sound more upbeat this time around following the upward revision in 3Q GDP.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Retail Sales Climbs 0.6% or Greater

• Need red, five-minute candle following the data to consider a short EURUSD trade
• If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Household Spending Disappoints

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
• Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse

[Sergey Golubev]

The Week Ahead: Is This the Next Taper Stopper?

The stock market stabilized late last week but the damage was done by mid-week as the technical deterioration had given advance warning of the market’s decline. Last Monday’s feeble reaction to the powerful gains on the jobs report was disappointing and short-term sell signals were generated.The financial media is attributing the stock market decline to the growing consensus that the Fed may announce changes in their bond buying program at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting. Thus, the dreaded tapering is again the focus of many analysts.In August, I explained my view that more taper tantrums would be bullish, and the stock market’s correction ended about two weeks later. Since then, the improvement in the unemployment numbers has convinced some that the Fed can now justify tapering.Though it has not been widely discussed, it is my opinion that fear of deflation is likely to keep the Fed from changing its policy now. Last week’s Producer Price Index reflected almost no inflation at the producer level, and this Tuesday, we get the Consumer Price Index. So what should you do?

[Sergey Golubev]

Combining Two Powerful Technical Tools

There are a wide range of technical indicators that traders and investors can use to determine the market’s trend and to pick stocks. I have found that the most effective combination of indicators use either different data or non-correlated data.

In this week’s lesson, I want to demonstrate how two non-related technical tools can help you determine changes in the market’s trend. This first is the McClellan oscillator, which was developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan and is calculated from the A/D data. The second is a sentiment indicator, the Total Put/Call ratio (P/C), which measures the volume of puts traded divided by the volume in calls.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Analysis for USDJPY for coming week

• USDJPY traded to a new high for the year on Friday but reversed sharply. The high is not accompanied by a high in the Nikkei, which does the raise the possibility of a deeper drop. 3 daily reversal bars since 12/3 (2 are outside days) is also cause for concern.
• Still, the ‘trend extension’ setups described last week is valid as long as price is above 102.14. Weakness below there would open up the possibility of a deeper drop. 100.60-101.13 would be on the radar as possible support.
• A bullish objective of 105.12 is derived by calculating the measured move from the 103.37-101.61 dip. A close from Oct 2008 remains uncovered at 105.30.

Trading Strategy: Looking for support in the 102.65/95 region for longs against 102.10.

[Sergey Golubev]

Australian Dollar Faces Make-or-Break Event Risk as FOMC Meets

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

The Australian Dollar accelerated downward last week, losing nearly 2 percent against its US namesake and entering the weekend at the lowest level in three months. The move lower over the past eight weeks has closely mirrored a recovery in benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields, suggesting the liquidation reflects building speculation about an imminent cutback of the Federal Reserve’s QE3 asset purchases.

On the domestic front, December’s HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI report represents the only bit of noteworthy event risk. Expectations call for a slight pickup in factory-sector activity. As a stand-alone release, this might have helped the Aussie higher, but taken against a backdrop of Fed-related macro gyrations across the financial markets the data may not even register on investors’ radar.