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2013-08-08 03:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - BoJ Interest Rate]
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Bank Of Japan Keeps Stimulus Program Unchanged
Japan's central bank announced on Thursday its decision to keep its monetary easing program unchanged, as the economy has begun to recover moderately and inflation data has turned positive.
2013-08-08 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Jobless Claims (Initial Claims)]
If actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Edge Up To 333,000, Below Estimate :
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits showed a modest increase in the week ended August 3rd, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday, although claims still came in below economist estimates.
The report showed that initial jobless claims edged up to 333,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 328,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 336,000 from the 326,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Forum
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.07.11 16:03
And some comments ... some questions ...
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Why this Jobless Claims is high impacted news event for some economic calendar, and some calendar is having it as low impacted? Because initially - this news event is low impacted by definition (if we are talking about how this news event should move the price by itself ony). But as this news event (value of it) is connected with the other news so the people/traders/market understands this event as high impacted from time to time.
As to the calendars so there are 2 kinds of economic calendar:
Metatrader 5 calendar is analytical calendar as I understand it.
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Forecasting data ... why is it so different from one calendar to an other one, but some of forecasting data are the same ones? because some forecasting data are announced in almost official way so that is why those data may be same value for any calendar for any website. But most of forecasting data values are not announced - they are just discussed before news events on different way. So, analytists are placing his own forecasting data based on something. By the way, forecasting data is not very different one from one calendar to the other one.
A Runaway USD/JPY Move Few Would Expect :
Guest Commentary: How Far Will USD/JPY Fall?
"Last night, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. They nudged up their expectations for inflation, saying that, “it appears to be rising as a whole” but did not officially alter their economic assessment. Comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda were more upbeat – he indicated that the downside risks as a whole have moderated to some extent in Europe and China. He also noted that income and spending conditions have improved. Japanese purchases of foreign bonds also hit its highest level since August 2010, which should have been negative for USD/JPY. Unfortunately the continued slide in the Nikkei and lack of upward momentum in U.S. yields has prevented USD/JPY from rallying."
"From a fundamental perspective, the reasons for buying USDJPY, including Fed tapering and BoJ easing, remain intact, but at this stage, we would prefer to wait for the currency pair to stabilize and start to turn higher before buying."
Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
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Led by declines among youths, employment decreased by 39,000 in July, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 7.2%. With this decrease, employment gains have averaged 11,000 per month over the past six months, slower than the average of 27,000 observed during the preceding six-month period.
Oil Gains With Metals on China Output; S&P 500 Retreats
U.S. equities fell, with benchmark gauges capping their worst week since June after a rally to a record left the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index at its most-expensive valuation in three years. Oil and metals advanced as Chinese industrial output expanded faster than estimated.
The S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent to 1,691.42 at 4 p.m. in New York and slid 1.1 percent for the week. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.5 percent to $105.97 a barrel while zinc, nickel and lead jumped at least 1.9 percent. South Africa’s rand reached the strongest level this month against the dollar and Australia’s currency posted its biggest weekly gain since December 2011. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong advanced 1.2 percent.
The S&P 500 has rallied 19 percent in 2013 and closed at a record 1,709.67 on Aug. 2. The index trades at about 15.3 times projected earnings, up from a multiple of 13.1 at the beginning of this year and holding close to a three-year high reached last week. That compares to a five-year average of 13.9 times, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Stocks and Treasuries have been whipsawed since May amid speculation the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its quantitative easing as the economy improves.
“We have been losing enthusiasm over the course of recent days,” said Bruce McCain, who helps oversee more than $20 billion as chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland. “There still seems to be half the market that is focusing on improving fundamentals and the other is worried about the Fed removing quantitative easing sooner rather than later.”
China's commodity imports recovered strongly in July with strong increases seen in energy and metals. Whether this is a sign of a pickup in activity or just a buildup in stocks remains to be seen. Industrial metals nevertheless received a boost with copper seeing a significant amount of short-covering which also positively impacted silver and to a lesser extent, gold. Oil markets, however, went the other way led by gasoline after weekly inventory data raised doubts about whether demand for gasoline from US motorist would be strong enough to absorb the increased production seen during July.
2013-08-11 23:50 GMT (or 2013-08-12 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
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Japan GDP Slows To 0.6% On Quarter In Q2
Japan's gross domestic product added just 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's preliminary report.
The headline figure missed forecasts for an increase of 0.9 percent, which would have been unchanged from the first quarter.
On a yearly basis, GDP was up 2.6 percent - well shy of expectations for 3.6 percent following the 4.1 percent gain in Q1.
Use Moving Averages to Spot Trend Changes
Veteran trader and newsletter editor Jim Rohrbach minces no words as he explains why fundamental and economic forecasts can lead investors astray—and why so few advisors use technicals. He explains how he uses some simple technical indicators to identify possible buy points in stocks.
Kate Stalter: Today I’m delighted to be speaking with someone who is a favorite of MoneyShow audiences, well known to many of you out there: James Rohrbach of Investment Models.
Jim, I thought maybe we could start out today with you telling us a little bit about your market timing methodology. Conventional wisdom has it that you can’t time the market, but as you and I have discussed, there are certainly ways to do it.
James Rohrbach: Well, that is an interesting subject in itself. I look at LinkedIn (LNKD) once in a while, and I see people who call themselves traders, and they have all kinds of ideas about how you have to look into the future in order to tell how to invest or trade.
Well, you can’t look into the future. If you can just identify when the trend changes, that’s all you need. Problem is, nobody knows how to do that.
I was invited to be a judge at a university here in Orlando, and we were judging four colleges of students who were in the finance end of study, and they had to come up with an analysis of a company, and then present it. I found it very interesting, and when they were speaking and I had a chance to interject, I asked the kids a couple of technical questions.
Afterwards, the professor came over to me. He said, “Mr. Rohrbach, they were asked to identify and analyze the company on a fundamental basis, not a technical basis.”I said, “I’m sorry, I didn’t know that.” But he said, “It was good, because you sort of stopped them in their tracks and we could observe how they got around that.”
But then I started thinking: Now, these kids are in four different universities learning finance, investing, and nobody’s teaching them technical analysis. And I know why.
Kate Stalter: Why’s that?
James Rohrbach: Because they don’t know how to teach it, and therefore they couldn’t grade it. Isn’t that interesting?So we’re getting a part of an education when we go to college and we major in finance. And technical analysis is sort of a mystery to most people. They all talk in terms to convince you that they know something about technical analysis, but they really don’t. They don’t know how to identify a change in the trend in the market, and it’s not that difficult, if you spend the time to try to figure it out.
I’ve been doing it for 40 years. I’ve identified every change in the trend in the market, and I know that’s not believable, because most people don’t want to believe it, because they’re being told constantly by brokers, etc., “Don’t try to time the market…it can’t be done.”
It can’t be done because they can’t do it.
Kate Stalter: Jim, let me follow up with what is the obvious question, based on what you’ve said: How are you identifying shifts in market trends?
James Rohrbach: Well, I developed many years ago—in 1964, I came up with this problem. I said to myself, “If I’m going to be successful, I’ve got to know when the trend changes.”
And I spent seven years working on the mathematics of that thing. I kept stumbling, but I finally came up with a way where I can take certain ingredients, which I’m not going to tell you what they are, and if I applied them to the mathematics, I could tell on a daily basis what the trend of the market was for that day.
In other words, I’d convert the action of the market into a number. That number represents the trend for today. If the market is going up several days in a row, that number will go up, and vice versa.
But you’ve got to know the ingredients, and you’ve got to use mathematics. Don’t listen to those guys on the Street, or wherever, who tell you the reasons for the market going up or down, because they have nothing to do with reality.
It’s all a mathematical thing for me, and mathematics are unemotional, and they don’t need to know what’s going on in Europe. Or what the president said today about student loans. Oh my, we’ve got a big problem there.
AUD/USD slightly higher as NAB lowers Aussie target
The Australian dollar traded modestly higher against its U.S. counterpart in Asian trading Monday even after National Australia Bank lowered its price target on the pair.
In Asian trading Monday, AUD/USD inched up 0.01% to 0.9200. The pair is likely to find support at 0.9087, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.9287, the high from July 29.
In recent days, the Aussie has been home to noticeable strength against the greenback due in large to some supportive Chinese economic data. Last week, the Aussie was boosted after official data showed that Chinese industrial output rose significantly more-than-forecast in July and consumer price inflation remained unchanged.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia's Business Confidence At 8-Month Low: NAB Survey
Australian business confidence slipped an eight-month low in July while firms' operating conditions remained at its weakest level in four years, a survey by the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed Tuesday.
The business confidence index fell to -3 in July, the lowest score since November 2012, from zero in June. "It is likely that the weakness in business activity and profitability is the key driver of weaker confidence," the survey report said.