Press review - page 381

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamentals Analysis: UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (adapted from the article)

2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

• past data is 91.7
• forecast data is 92.2
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

==========

==========

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UoM Consumer Sentiment and 11 pips range price movement

2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

• past data is 91.7
• forecast data is 92.2
• actual data is 90.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

==========

Preliminary Results for March 2016

	Mar	Feb	Mar	M-M	Y-Y
	2016	2016	2015	Change	Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment	90.0	91.7	93.0	-1.9%	-3.2%
Current Economic Conditions	105.6	106.8	105.0	-1.1%	+0.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations	80.0	81.9	85.3	-2.3%	-6.2%

Next data release: April 01, 2016 for Final March data at 10am ET

==========

EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, March 20 - 27 (based on the article)

German Ifo Business Climate and Economic Sentiment, Inflation data from the UK, US durable goods orders, Unemployment claims and GDP data. These are the main events on forex calendar.

1. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. German manufacturers’ sentiment declined in February to 105.7 from 107.3 posted in the previous month. The fall projects the effects of the slowdown in emerging countries on the German economy.
2. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. Inflation soared up to its highest rate for a year in January amid rises in the price of alcohol and clothing. Consumer prices edged up 0.3% from 0.2% in December, in line with market forecast. However, despite the rise, the Bank of England expects inflation to remain subdued below the government’s 2% target. Weak oil prices limit inflation pressures, leaving the UK central bank in no hurry to raise rates above 0.5%.
   
3. Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German Investor sentiment took a nosedive in February, reaching the lowest level since October 2014, amid global slowdown and growing uncertainty around the continuous fall of oil prices. ZEW economic institute German investor confidence posted 1.0 points following 10.2 in the previous month. Economists expected an even worse reading of 0.1.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude oil stocks increased last week to record highs for a fifth continuous week as gasoline inventories declined amid strong demand. Inventories increased 1.3 million barrels considerably lower than the 3.4 million-barrel increase expected by analysts.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. orders for long-lasting goods leaped 4.9% in January posting the biggest gain in 10 months, despite softer business investment. The reading followed a revised 4.6% contraction in the prior month. Economists believe the rise is not a temporary incident but an ongoing trend. Analysts expected a smaller rise of 3.0%.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filling initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 7,000 to 265,000 last week. The reading was broadly in line with market forecast. This week’s release posts the 54th straight week where claims are below 300,000, indicating a robust employment market.
7. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30. The US economy expanded at a slower pace than initially forecasted in the third quarter of 2015 rising 2.0%. The Fed does not expect much improvement in 2016, estimating growth of 2.1% to 2.4%.
   

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The S&P 500 and other risk-oriented markets have extended a multi-week climb; but the fundamental backdrop to support the move is more than porous. Abrupt market moves are more likely to align to risk aversion; and the Greenback is likely to revert to a more responsive haven status. Risk or data moves this week however will be tempered somewhat by holiday trading conditions as March 25 is Good Friday for many markets."

EUR/USD - "Next week is devoid of high-importance news events out of Europe, but there are numerous medium and low-importance announcements on the docket. The highlights are German data on Tuesday, both the IFO and the German Zew Survey, while Wednesday brings consumer confidence numbers and Thursday brings PMI’s for the Euro-Zone, France and Germany. Each of these could be market moving, but given that much of this data was compiled before the announcement of Mr. Draghi, expect down-side prints to be somewhat muted while top-side data gets accentuated by markets."

GBP/USD - "In turn, a slew of positive U.K. data prints accompanied by waning U.S. interest-rate expectations may fuel a further short-squeeze in GBP/USD as there appears to be a shift in market positioning."

AUD/USD - "The correlation between the currency and the S&P 500 stock index – a benchmark for market-wide risk trends – remains elevated at 0.92 on rolling 20-day studies. Alternatively, upbeat outcomes may yield the opposite dynamic."

NZD/USD - "Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S. Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the 70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194. We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The BoE looks poised to retain its current policy ahead of the U.K. Referendum in June as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains unanimous in keeping the benchmark interest rate at the record-low, but signs of stronger price growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to adopt a more hawkish tone over the coming months as the central bank sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with fears surrounding the U.K. Referendum may drag on inflation, and signs of easing price growth may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Meet/Beat Market Forecast

• Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
• If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Report Disappoints

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily

• GBP/USD may largely preserve the downward trend carried over from 2015 as the BoE lags behind its U.S. counterpart, but the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may highlight an inverse head-and-shoulders formation in the exchange rate as Governor Carney continues to argue that the next move will be to normalize monetary policy.
• Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
• Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 42 pips price movement

2016-03-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

• "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in the year to February 2016, unchanged from January 2016.
• This maintains the position seen over the last few months of a rate which is a little above zero.
• The contributions to change in the CPI rate from the detailed categories were relatively small compared with most months.
• The largest downward contribution came from the transport sector, from price changes for items such as road passenger transport, second-hand cars and bicycles.
• Rising food prices, particularly for vegetables, offset this.
• CPIH (not a National Statistic) grew by 0.6% in the year to February 2016, unchanged from January 2016."

==========

GBPUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Setups for EUR/USD by Barclays (based on the article)

EUR/USD: daily correction to possible bearish reversal

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction: the price is on local downtrend within the primary bullish with 1.1145 as the nearest target and 1.1057 as the key bearish reversal target.

• "Yesterday’s low close was on below average volume, but price action points lower in range in the short term.
• We are looking for a move towards targets near 1.1145 and then the 1.1055 area."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing.  

• If the price will break 1.1342 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price will break 1.1055 support on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be on correctional ranging movement within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1.1342	1.1145
N/A	1.1055

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1055 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1342 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: correction
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: ranging bearish within 1.40/1.45 area

Daily price is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.4052 support level and 1.4535 resistance level.

• "The break below the 1.4350 stop-loss resulted in a sharp drop to a low of 1.4191. The up-move that started from the low of 1.4053 last week has topped out at 1.4514, much sooner than expected and short of our 1.4570 target. Despite the sharp drop, we are not convinced that the current weakness is a resumption of the bearish trend in GBP.
• The current movement is viewed as part of a broad sideway consolidation range and further choppy can be expected in the next couple of weeks, likely holding between 1.4050 and 1.4400 (bias is for a probe lower towards 1.4050)."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.  

• If the price will break 1.4535 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with the secondary ranging and 1.5160 level as the nexr bullish reversal target.
  
• If price will break 1.4052 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1.4535	1.4052
1.5160	1.3835

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4052 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4535 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging bearish
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

USD/JPY: back to 110.66

Daily price is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 110.66 support level and 113.81 resistance level.

• "The rebound from the low of 110.65 has been more resilient than expected but as long as 113.00 is intact, another leg lower to 110.00 is still a possibility but we must admit that the odds have diminished and will continue to diminish if the current short-term consolidation were to persist."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.  

• If the price will break 113.81 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price will break 110.66 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
113.81	110.97
114.86	110.66

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 110.66 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 113.81 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging bearish
  

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Fundamentals: EIA Crude Stocks and 337 pips price movement

2016-03-23 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 1.3M
• forecast data is 2.5M
• actual data is 9.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 532.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at hisorically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 0.3 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels last week."

==========

XAUUSD M5: 337 pips price movement by EIA Crude Stocks news event :