Overview
Today’s main themes are buying in USD/CHF and USD/CAD, selling in the cross-yen pairs and silver, and continued strength in European equities.
USD/CHF and USD/CAD are strong buys across all timeframes. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are strong sells across all timeframes, making broad dollar strength against the major currencies clearer than in the previous report. USD/JPY, however, is at 159.88, close to 160, but the 5-minute chart is a strong sell and the 15-minute chart is neutral. The daily chart remains a strong buy, while short-term signals suggest the pair may struggle to extend its gains.
Among the cross-yen pairs, rebounds in EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY have broken down. Like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, both are now strong sells across all timeframes. Even with USD/JPY’s daily chart a strong buy, many currencies are weak against the yen, so the market is not showing broad-based yen weakness.
In commodities, gold remains a strong sell on the daily chart, while both spot silver and silver futures are strong sells across all timeframes. WTI crude has risen since the previous report, and its hourly signal has improved to neutral, but the daily chart remains a strong sell. Among stock indices, the three European benchmarks remain strong buys across all timeframes. US equities have lost their hourly buy signals, while the Nikkei has broadened its sell signals despite a higher price than in the previous report.
Main Changes Since the Previous Report
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USD/CHF rose from 0.8320 to 0.8372, with the 5-minute and 15-minute charts reversing from strong sell to strong buy. USD/CAD’s 15-minute chart also recovered from neutral to strong buy. Both pairs are now aligned in buy territory through the daily chart.
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EUR/USD lost its short-term strong buy signals, and the hourly chart shifted from neutral to strong sell. GBP/USD and NZD/USD also turned bearish on timeframes that had previously been neutral.
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The buy signals through the hourly chart in EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY broke down, and both pairs turned to strong sell through the daily chart. NZD/JPY also lost its short-term buy signals and is now a strong sell across all timeframes.
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Spot gold fell from 3,943.36 to 3,895.83. Spot silver fell from 51.1215 to 49.9395, and its 5-minute chart, previously neutral, turned to strong sell. BTC/USD fell from 73,449.0 to 68,962.0. Its short-term charts returned to neutral, while the hourly and daily charts remain strong sells.
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WTI crude rose from 86.09 to 88.42, and its hourly signal improved from strong sell to neutral. Natural gas moved in the opposite direction, with the 15-minute and hourly charts turning from strong buy to strong sell.
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The Dow’s 15-minute chart shifted from strong buy to strong sell, while its hourly chart retreated from strong buy to neutral. The Nikkei rose from 60,816.00 to 61,150.00, but its hourly signal deteriorated from sell to strong sell.
FX Market
EUR/USD — 1.1055
Strong sell across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned in strong sell territory. The previous short-term rebound has broken down. If the pair recovers, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly sell signals hold.
GBP/USD — 1.3231
Strong sell across all timeframes. The 15-minute and hourly charts, previously neutral, are now aligned in sell territory in both moving averages and indicators. The conflict between the daily and short-term charts has cleared, creating a clearer setup for selling into rallies.
USD/JPY — 159.88
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong buy. The hourly moving average is a strong buy, but its indicator is neutral. The focus is whether buying on the 15-minute chart can support a test of 160, or whether short-term selling extends to the hourly chart.
USD/CHF — 0.8372
Strong buy across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned in strong buy territory. The previous short-term correction has ended, and this is the clearest buy signal among the major dollar pairs today.
AUD/USD — 0.6794
Strong sell across all timeframes. The 5-minute chart, previously neutral, has also turned to strong sell, and moving averages are strong sells across all timeframes. AUD/JPY shows the same direction, reflecting Australian dollar weakness against both the US dollar and the yen.
NZD/USD — 0.5534
Strong sell across all timeframes. The 5-minute and 15-minute charts, previously neutral, have turned lower, and moving averages and indicators are all strong sells. Selling has also spread to NZD/JPY, highlighting New Zealand dollar weakness.
USD/CAD — 1.4262
Strong buy across all timeframes. On the 15-minute chart, the moving average and indicator, which were previously in conflict, are now both strong buys. The hourly indicator also points higher. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold after a short-term correction.
Cross-Yen Pairs and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 176.75
Strong sell across all timeframes. The pair was a strong buy through the hourly chart and neutral on the daily chart in the previous report. Now, moving averages are strong sells across all timeframes. Selling has extended beyond a short-term pullback and is aligned through the daily chart.
GBP/JPY — 211.54
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral. On the hourly chart, the moving average is a sell and the indicator is a buy. Short-term signals are weak, but selling has not extended to the higher timeframes as it has in EUR/JPY.
CHF/JPY — 190.99
Strong sell across all timeframes. The previous short-term rebound has broken down, with moving averages and indicators aligned in strong sell territory. Alongside the strong buy in USD/CHF, this shows clear franc weakness against both the yen and the US dollar.
AUD/JPY — 108.63
Strong sell across all timeframes. Short-term signals have weakened since the previous report, aligning with the sell signals on the hourly and daily charts. If the pair rebounds, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly moving averages remain bearish.
NZD/JPY — 88.48
Strong sell across all timeframes. The 5-minute and 15-minute charts were strong buys previously, but moving averages and indicators are now all strong sells. The breakdown of the short-term rebound is clear among the cross-yen pairs.
CAD/JPY — 112.11
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. On the hourly chart, the moving average is a sell while the indicator is a buy. If short-term selling extends to the hourly chart, it will align with the daily direction again.
EUR/GBP — 0.8356
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are sells. The strong buys through the hourly chart in the previous report have broken down, bringing the pair back in line with its daily direction. With both currencies weak against the US dollar, the euro is also losing ground against the pound.
AUD/NZD — 1.2278
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The pair has rebounded from short-term sell signals in the previous report, but the hourly moving average remains neutral. The focus is whether the Australian dollar’s recovery against the New Zealand dollar extends to the hourly chart.
EUR/CHF — 0.9255
The 5-minute chart is a buy, while the 15-minute chart through the daily chart are strong buys. The hourly and daily charts, previously neutral, have improved. Despite strong sells in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, the euro is showing strength against the franc through the daily chart.
GBP/CHF — 1.1077
The 5-minute chart is a buy, while the 15-minute chart through the daily chart are strong buys. The hourly chart was a sell in the previous report, but moving averages and indicators are now aligned in buy territory. Unlike GBP/USD, the pound has returned to the daily direction against the franc.
Commodities
Gold — 3,895.83
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are sells, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The hourly indicator has improved to neutral, but the moving average remains a strong sell. The previous 5-minute rebound has faded. To assess a recovery, watch whether the 15-minute chart improves.
Gold Futures — 3,900.32
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are sells, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The signals match spot gold, and both the daily moving average and indicator are strong sells. Even though the hourly indicator has returned to neutral, the overall signal remains bearish.
Silver — 49.9395
Strong sell across all timeframes. The 5-minute chart, previously neutral, has also turned lower, with moving averages and indicators aligned in strong sell territory. Among precious metals, silver’s bearish direction is clearer than gold’s.
Silver Futures — 49.915
Strong sell across all timeframes. The bearish direction has continued since the previous report, and moving averages are strong sells across all timeframes. If the price rebounds, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly charts remain bearish.
Copper — 6.1478
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart is a sell, and the hourly and daily charts are strong sells. The 5-minute indicator is a strong buy, but its moving average is a sell. Both moving averages and indicators on the hourly and daily charts are strong sells, so higher-timeframe weakness remains.
WTI Crude — 88.42
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The hourly indicator has improved to buy, but the moving average is neutral. The focus is whether the price recovery appears on the 15-minute chart or the hourly chart turns back to the daily sell direction.
Natural Gas — 3.266
Strong sell from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; strong buy on the daily chart. The 15-minute chart through the daily chart were strong buys previously, but both the hourly moving average and indicator have now turned lower. Before treating a pullback as a buying opportunity in line with the daily chart, wait for selling pressure on the 15-minute and hourly charts to ease.
US Wheat — 594.80
The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is a strong buy, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The pair has rebounded from short-term sell signals, and the hourly moving average and indicator are now aligned in buy territory. With the daily chart still bearish, treat this as a short-term rebound.
BTC/USD — 68,962.0
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells. Short-term indicators have returned to buy territory, but both moving averages remain bearish. The price has fallen substantially since the previous report. Watch whether the short-term move back to neutral leads to improvement on the hourly chart.
Stock Indices
Dow Jones — 52,297.09
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy. The daily buy signal remains, but both the 15-minute moving average and indicator have turned to strong sell. For a pullback-buy setup, watch whether selling on the 15-minute chart eases and the hourly chart returns to buy.
S&P 500 — 7,592.40
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral. The hourly chart has retreated from strong buy, and its moving average has turned to sell. The focus is whether short-term selling extends to the hourly chart.
Nasdaq 100 — 28,289.19
The 5-minute chart is a buy, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are neutral. The 5-minute chart has improved from strong sell in the previous report, but the 15-minute indicator is a strong sell. The direction is likely to remain unclear until the 5-minute rebound extends to the 15-minute chart.
DAX — 26,775.39
Strong buy across all timeframes. The price is below its previous level, but moving averages remain strong buys across all timeframes. On a pullback, watch whether the buy signals on the 15-minute and hourly charts hold.
FTSE 100 — 10,891.75
Strong buy across all timeframes. As in the previous report, moving averages and indicators are also aligned in strong buy territory across all timeframes. This is the clearest bullish alignment among today’s stock indices.
CAC 40 — 8,366.83
Strong buy across all timeframes. The price is below its previous level, but moving averages remain strong buys across all timeframes. As with the DAX, watch whether the price correction extends to the 15-minute or hourly signals.
Nikkei 225 — 61,150.00
Strong sell from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; sell on the daily chart. The price is higher than in the previous report, but the 5-minute signal has deteriorated from neutral to strong sell, and the hourly chart has weakened from sell to strong sell. The focus is whether the price recovery is accompanied by improvement on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
Strength Rankings
Strong Buy Across All Timeframes
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USD/CHF
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USD/CAD
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FTSE 100
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DAX
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CAC 40
Among these, USD/CHF and the FTSE 100 also have strong buy signals across all timeframes in both moving averages and indicators.
Strong Buy from the 15-Minute Chart Through the Daily Chart
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EUR/CHF
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GBP/CHF
Weakness Rankings
Strong Sell Across All Timeframes
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EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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AUD/USD
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NZD/USD
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EUR/JPY
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CHF/JPY
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AUD/JPY
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NZD/JPY
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Spot silver
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Silver futures
Strong Sell on the Hourly and Daily Charts
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Copper
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BTC/USD
Spot gold, gold futures, EUR/GBP, and the Nikkei also show sell signals across all timeframes.
Trading Strategy
Pullback-Buy Candidates
USD/CHF, USD/CAD, the FTSE 100, the DAX, and the CAC 40 are aligned in buy territory through the daily chart. EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF are also strong buys from the 15-minute chart upward. Buying USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and GBP/CHF at the same time would concentrate exposure to franc weakness. When narrowing the candidates, compare whether the 15-minute buy signal holds after a pullback.
Sell-Into-Rallies Candidates
EUR/USD, NZD/USD, CHF/JPY, NZD/JPY, and spot silver are strong sells across all timeframes in both moving averages and indicators. Gold and BTC/USD remain weak on the daily chart. If they rebound in the short term, watch whether the 15-minute recovery extends to the hourly chart.
Pairs to Watch for Clearer Alignment
USD/JPY, natural gas, and the Dow have strong daily buy signals but short-term selling. Natural gas is particularly weak through the hourly chart, so do not treat a 5-minute rebound alone as a pullback-buy signal; wait for improvement on the 15-minute and hourly charts. AUD/NZD and US wheat show the opposite setup, with short-term buying against a strong daily sell.
Key Points to Watch
USD/JPY is approaching 160. If the pair tests higher levels, watch whether the 15-minute chart moves from neutral to buy and the hourly indicator also turns higher. The contrast with USD/CHF and USD/CAD, where short-term signals are more aligned, is a key feature of today’s FX market.
In commodities, watch whether the recovery in WTI crude leads to an hourly buy signal and whether natural gas can absorb short-term selling. In stock indices, attention is on whether the short-term selling in the Dow and the hourly weakness in the Nikkei ease while European equities retain their buy signals.
