Forex and Crypto Forecast for 31 August – 4 September 2026
Last week reversed the main trend of the previous forecast as the dollar recovered sharply after several weak weeks. The trigger was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, where markets heard a signal that tight monetary policy would continue. Pressure on risk assets increased after revisions to US employment data, while bitcoin’s nine-day streak of spot ETF inflows ended. Brent corrected as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased. The euro fell below 1.1600, gold pulled back from 4,700, while cryptocurrencies and commodities closed lower.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair failed to extend the break above 1.1710. It started at 1.1676, traded within 1.1636-1.1687 until Thursday, then fell to 1.1575-1.1580 on Friday after Warsh’s speech and closed near 1.1582. The loss of 1.1600 cancels the moderately bullish trend. Support: 1.1560-1.1570, then 1.1480-1.1520 and 1.1325-1.1350. Resistance: 1.1600-1.1620, then 1.1670-1.1710 and 1.1785-1.1800. Below 1.1600-1.1620, the outlook is moderately bearish. A break of 1.1560-1.1570 could open the way to 1.1480-1.1520; a return above 1.1620 could lead to 1.1670-1.1710.
🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)
bitcoin failed to hold above 80,000. It started at 77,376, reached a three-month high of 81,510 on Friday, then fell to 76,860 and closed near 77,400. The reversal was supported by a stronger dollar and weaker spot ETF inflows, around $202 million for the day. Support: 77,000, then 73,000-73,900 and 69,000-69,200. Resistance: 80,000, then 81,300-82,800 and 87,000-88,000. Above 73,000, the outlook remains neutral-bullish. A move above 80,000-81,300 could open the way to 87,000-88,000; below 73,000, the target is 69,000-69,200.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent reversed lower against the bullish scenario. It started at 92.38, fell to 85.49 on Wednesday, then rebounded and closed near 88.00. Support: 85.50-86.00, then 84.00-85.00 and 80.00. Resistance: 89.50-90.00, then 92.00-93.00 and 95.00-96.00. Below 89.50-90.00, the bearish correction continues towards 84.00-85.00. Renewed escalation around Hormuz and a return above 90.00 could open the way to 92.00-93.00.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold moved almost opposite to the Dollar Index DXY and closely followed EUR/USD. It started at 4,604, reached 4,697 on Tuesday, then fell sharply on Friday, broke 4,500 and closed near 4,456. Support: 4,440-4,450, then 4,300-4,350 and 4,200-4,250. Resistance: 4,500, then 4,600-4,660 and 4,740-4,770. Below 4,500, the outlook is moderately bearish. Holding 4,440-4,450 could trigger a rebound to 4,600-4,650; a break below could open the way to 4,300-4,350.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends
Monday brings China PMI. On Tuesday, 1 September, markets will watch Eurozone CPI and US ISM Manufacturing. Wednesday brings ADP private employment and US oil inventories; Thursday, jobless claims and ISM Services. On Friday, 4 September, the US labour-market report includes unemployment and NFP. Hormuz geopolitics remains key for oil.
Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bearish below 1.1600; below 1.1560-1.1570 → 1.1480-1.1520, above 1.1620 → 1.1670-1.1710. BTC/USD – neutral-bullish above 73,000; above 80,000-81,300 → 87,000-88,000, below 73,000 → 69,000-69,200. Brent – bearish correction, target 84.00-85.00; above 90.00 → 93.00-94.00. XAU/USD – moderately bearish below 4,500; below 4,440-4,450 → 4,300-4,350, holding the zone → 4,600-4,650.
If you want to relax a little and have a smile 😄
My new YouTube channel with short and funny Shorts about traders, money and football.
Watch, like, subscribe and write whatever you want in the comments.
Ideas for new videos are especially welcome!
#Forex #Crypto #Markets #EURUSD #BTCUSD #XAUUSD #Brent #Fed #NFP #MarketOutlook
