NEURAL FORECAST [tambangEA]
MQL5 Blogs : https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/773904
MT4 Version : https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/189775
MT5 Version : https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/189776
NEURAL FORECAST [tambangEA] is a multi-symbol neural-network forecasting indicator designed for Gold and major Forex pairs on the Daily (D1) timeframe.
The indicator combines a neural forecasting engine with a structured decision dashboard to estimate the current Daily candle's potential High, Low and Close, while also providing directional bias, model strength, forecast risk/reward, validation statistics and a clear BUY / SELL / WAIT decision layer.
Rather than displaying a simple arrow or oscillator signal, NEURAL FORECAST is designed as a complete market decision-support framework.
Main Features
Neural Network Forecast Engine
The forecasting engine uses a 6 → 6 → 6 → 6 → 3 Multi-Layer Perceptron architecture.
The model processes six normalized market features:
- 5-Day Momentum
- Range Position
- RSI-50
- 5-Day Range %
- 5-Day Body %
- Acceleration
The network produces three primary forecasts:
Pred HIGH — expected Daily upper price extreme
Pred LOW — expected Daily lower price extreme
Pred CLOSE — expected Daily closing-price reference
The forecast is calculated from completed historical bars and remains frozen for the active Daily setup.
Gold and Forex Model Architecture
NEURAL FORECAST automatically detects the selected market.
Gold Model
For XAUUSD / GOLD, the indicator uses a dedicated fixed neural-network model with:
147 neural-network parameters
and the complete:
6 → 6 → 6 → 6 → 3 architecture
The Gold model operates as a deterministic inference engine without retraining.
Forex Model
For supported Forex symbols, the indicator uses a separate neural network with the same 147-parameter architecture.
The Forex model can be trained from the selected pair's historical Daily data using:
- dedicated training data
- validation data
- reserved out-of-sample data
- Huber loss
- L2 regularization
- gradient clipping
- early stopping
- best validation epoch restoration
The Forex model therefore adapts its neural weights to the selected currency pair instead of using Gold weights on Forex markets.
Professional Dashboard
The interface is divided into three interactive tabs:
FORECAST
Provides the main neural forecast overview, including:
- Active model
- Anchor price
- Pred HIGH
- Pred LOW
- Pred CLOSE
- Predicted Range
- NN Bias
- NN Strength
- Forecast RR
- BUY / SELL / WAIT
- six normalized neural inputs
- cumulative MAE
- 30-bar MAE
- 90-bar MAE
- 250-bar MAE
- model Skill Score
TRADE PLAN
The Trade Plan tab converts the neural forecast into a structured execution framework.
It displays:
- current Trade Decision
- reason for the decision
- current Bid / Ask
- directional setup
- NN Bias
- NN Strength
- 30-bar Skill
- Forecast RR
- Anchor
- BUY Trigger
- BUY No-Chase level
- SELL Trigger
- SELL No-Chase level
- Pred CLOSE
- Pred HIGH
- Pred LOW
- decision filters
- execution rules
This allows the trader to understand not only what the indicator is suggesting, but also why the decision is currently BUY, SELL or WAIT.
BUY / SELL / WAIT Decision Engine
NEURAL FORECAST does not automatically convert every bullish forecast into BUY or every bearish forecast into SELL.
A trade decision requires several conditions to align.
BUY
A BUY condition requires, among other factors:
- bullish neural bias
- Pred CLOSE above the Anchor
- sufficient NN Strength
- acceptable BUY Forecast RR
- price confirmation above the BUY Trigger
- price still below the BUY No-Chase level
- optional Skill filter confirmation
SELL
A SELL condition requires:
- bearish neural bias
- Pred CLOSE below the Anchor
- sufficient NN Strength
- acceptable SELL Forecast RR
- price confirmation below the SELL Trigger
- price still above the SELL No-Chase level
- optional Skill filter confirmation
WAIT
WAIT is displayed when the required conditions are not fully aligned.
Examples include:
- waiting for price confirmation
- neutral neural bias
- insufficient model strength
- insufficient Forecast RR
- Skill filter not satisfied
- price already too close to the expected Daily extreme
WAIT is an intentional decision state and an important part of the strategy logic.
Trigger and No-Chase Logic
The indicator creates dynamic confirmation levels from the predicted Daily range.
BUY Trigger
The market must confirm bullish direction before the BUY state becomes active.
SELL Trigger
The market must confirm bearish direction before the SELL state becomes active.
No-Chase Levels
NEURAL FORECAST also calculates a No-Chase zone near the predicted High or Low.
This is designed to prevent the indicator from recommending a new entry after a large portion of the projected Daily move has already occurred.
NN Bias and Strength
NN Bias
Provides a directional interpretation of the forecast:
- BULLISH
- NEUTRAL
- BEARISH
NN Strength
Measures the magnitude of the model's directional conviction.
NN Strength should not be interpreted as a probability of winning.
For example:
Strength 70% does not mean a 70% probability of a profitable trade.
It represents the relative strength of the forecast structure generated by the model.
Forecast Risk / Reward
The indicator calculates separate forecast-envelope ratios for BUY and SELL.
Example:
BUY RR 1.50 | SELL RR 0.67
The values are calculated from the relationship between:
- Anchor
- Pred HIGH
- Pred LOW
Forecast RR is intended as a directional decision metric.
It does not include:
- spread
- commission
- slippage
- broker execution
- the trader's actual stop-loss
Therefore it should not be interpreted as final trade RR.
Model Validation
NEURAL FORECAST includes built-in model monitoring.
The dashboard displays:
- cumulative MAE
- 30-bar MAE
- 90-bar MAE
- 250-bar MAE
- baseline MAE
- cumulative Skill
- 30-bar Skill
- 90-bar Skill
- 250-bar Skill
Skill Score
Skill measures whether the neural forecast is outperforming its baseline.
Conceptually:
Skill > 0%
The neural model is outperforming the baseline.
Skill < 0%
The baseline is currently outperforming the neural model.
This allows the trader to evaluate not only the current forecast direction, but also the recent quality of the forecasting model.
Out-of-Sample Monitoring
The indicator supports Out-of-Sample validation.
For Forex local models, historical data can be separated into:
Training → Validation → Reserved OOS
The latest reserved bars are excluded from model training and can be used to evaluate the model on unseen market data.
For the Gold fixed model, an OOS start date can be configured manually when the appropriate validation boundary is known.
Neural Network Map
The right side of the chart can display an interactive visual representation of the neural network:
6 Inputs
→ Hidden Layer 1
→ Hidden Layer 2
→ Hidden Layer 3
→ 3 Outputs
The network map visualizes:
- feature nodes
- hidden neuron activation
- network connections
- output nodes
- forecast High
- forecast Low
- forecast Close
The display automatically adjusts to the available chart area.
The neural map can also be disabled when a cleaner chart is preferred.
Multi-Pair Dashboard
A built-in Multi-Pair panel allows quick navigation between supported markets.
Default symbols include:
- XAUUSD
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- USDJPY
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDCHF
- EURJPY
- GBPJPY
- EURGBP
- AUDJPY
Clicking a symbol button changes the chart to the selected market.
The indicator then automatically recalculates the appropriate:
- model
- forecast
- validation statistics
- neural bias
- neural strength
- trade decision
- trigger levels
Broker symbol suffixes and prefixes are automatically resolved whenever possible.
Built-In HOW TO USE Guide
The dashboard includes a dedicated HOW TO USE tab.
It provides an immediate reference for:
- forecast terminology
- BUY / SELL / WAIT logic
- trigger interpretation
- No-Chase logic
- NN Strength
- Forecast RR
- MAE
- Skill Score
- OOS validation
- recommended operating workflow
This makes the indicator easier to use without constantly referring to an external manual.
Recommended Workflow
A practical workflow is:
1. Check NN Bias and Pred CLOSE
Determine the model's primary directional expectation.
2. Check NN Strength and Forecast RR
Evaluate whether the expected directional structure is meaningful.
3. Review model Skill
Check whether the neural model is currently outperforming its baseline.
4. Wait for the BUY or SELL Trigger
Do not anticipate confirmation unnecessarily.
5. Confirm market structure
Combine the neural forecast with your preferred:
- trend analysis
- support / resistance
- market structure
- liquidity analysis
- price action
6. Define risk independently
Use appropriate:
- Stop Loss
- Take Profit
- ATR
- position sizing
- account risk management
Recommended Market Setup
NEURAL FORECAST is primarily designed for:
Timeframe: Daily / D1
and for:
Gold / XAUUSD
plus supported major and cross Forex pairs.
Using the model on significantly lower timeframes changes the statistical characteristics of the input data and is therefore not the intended default configuration.
Important Notes
NEURAL FORECAST is a forecasting and decision-support indicator.
It is not a guarantee of future market direction or trading profitability.
Pred HIGH, Pred LOW and Pred CLOSE are statistical model estimates and should not be interpreted as guaranteed future price levels.
The indicator does not replace:
- professional risk management
- position sizing
- stop-loss planning
- market structure analysis
- trader judgment
Historical performance or model accuracy does not guarantee future results.
