Dollar’s bearish trend can be broken in the current environment, in our opinion, only under a few conditions. This is - another stock market crash, larger measures of monetary easing by other major world banks, or a sharp deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the world or a strong geopolitical factor, for example, such as a war in some part of the world where the United States will be involved.
So far, any of these factors exists only theoretically.
Therefore, the most relevant now are considered to be short positions in the dollar, both in the medium term and in the long term (1-2 years).
As for the EUR / USD pair, if everything remains "as is", then one should expect its further growth towards the resistance level 1.2580 (see "Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations").
From the news for today regarding the EUR / USD pair, it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 13:00 GMT) of the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in Germany (preliminary forecast for December -0.6%, which is likely to have a negative short-term impact for the euro), the ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector (at 13:15), and minutes from the December Fed meeting (at 19:00 GMT).
The publication of the minutes is extremely important for determining the course of the current Fed policy and the prospects for raising its interest rate. The volatility of trading in financial markets during the publication of the minutes usually increases, since the text of the minutes often contains either changes or clarifying details regarding the results of the last meeting. It is also possible that the minutes will contain some information on the plans of action of the Fed's management at the meeting on January 26-27, although in the current situation there is no reason to expect any tough measures implying the curtailment of the current Fed policy.
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