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Friday, April 13th
The EUR/USD pair consolidates its yesterday’s recovery within the range of 1.2315-35, on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar. On Thursday, the greenback stalled its upside, allowing the pair to bounce off its support level of 1.2300 after retreat of 100 pips, triggered by attempts of the US dollar to regain control over the market. Moreover, decline of the pair was additionally accelerated by yesterday’s ECB minutes, which showed dovish stance of the Bank regarding further economic growth of the EZ. The ECB members agreed that there is still no strong evidence of further inflation growth, so the Bank will keep its interest rate on the current level. On the other hand, decreasing market interest to safety due to easing talks regarding geopolitical conflict between the US and Russia, involving Syria, weights somewhat on the common currency. In the day ahead, the US will release data from the labor market, while the EU data calendar will offer investors slew of secondary data reports, which won’t bring any impact on the pair.
The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and navigates northward this Friday, having tested its 2-month tops at 1.4262 spot. Today broad weakness of the US dollar and returned demand for risky assets remain key navigators across the market, which are both supporting the pair. On the other hand, any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could limit pair’s further gains. However, now traders’ attentions gradually shifts towards the UK and EU talks on their trade relationship after Brexit, which start next week. This negotiation will became another risky event for the pound, as sides haven’t yet found a compromise on several key issues. But today investors will pay attention to the US JOLTs job report, while any further swings in risk sentiment will also be able to influence the pair during this session.
The AUD/USD pair keeps its bid tone, having once again refreshed its monthly highs at 0.7791 spot this morning. The main reason of pair’s recent upside rally could be called the renewed weakness of the US dollar, as investors are still digesting disappointing Friday’s NFP report. Moreover, slightly increased demand for the risky assets, underpinned by vague tweets of the US President, which say that Mr.Trump didn’t set up any timing on when an attack on Syria would take place, also contribute to pair’s growth. Moreover, it seems that mixed China’s trade data and RBA’s Financial Stability report, which showed that there are still some risks for the Australian economy, left the pair mostly unaffected near its recent tops. In the day ahead, the US economy will release the JOLTs jobs report, while investors will continue observing developments on the Middle East, which could affect risk sentiment.
The USD/JPY pair finally broke through its resistance, located on the level of 107.50, on the back of reignited risk appetite. The market took the latest US President’s comments, who tweeted - ”Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!”, as a hint on that the US will abstain from performing an air attack on Syria, which, in turn, sparked fresh demand for risky assets. However, further growth of the pair looks limited, as the US dollar continue to retreat against its major rivals, having failed to extend its recent recovery. In the data space, today the US will publish JOLTs job openings data, while any changes in risk sentiments will also be able to bring some impact on the pair during this session.
Major events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2254 R. 1.2414
USDJPY S. 106.42 R. 107.88
GBPUSD S. 1.4105 R. 1.4307
USDCHF S. 0.9526 R. 0.9694
AUDUSD S. 0.7721 R. 0.7787
NZDUSD S. 0.7330 R. 0.7412
USDCAD S. 1.2529 R. 1.2651
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