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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

6 April 2018, 12:04

EEAnalytics

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Friday, April 6^th

The EUR/USD pair trades with a bearish tone this Friday, staying in the region of its monthly lows, marked at 1.2218 spot a day before. The main reason of pair’s recent retreat could be called improved demand for the US dollar. However, further downside trend of the pair looks limited on the back of escalation of the US-China trade conflict after US President D.Trump’s threats to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports. However, Mr.Trump also noted that he is still willing to meet with China at the negotiating table. Most of market participants believe that the aggressive behavior from the US side is nothing but a pre-negotiation tactics, which could potentially lead to a better trade terms. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to the key risky event of this Friday – release of the NFP report, but until then it is expected that the market will continue to keep cautious tone.

The GBP/USD pair remains pressured in the second half of this week, keeping its positions near its psychological level of 1.4000. The main reason of pair’s recent decline remains reignited risk-off sentiment, which was triggered by D.Trump's retaliatory tariffs on Chinese-made goods, thus boosting fears of a potential trade war between the two world’s largest economies. Adding to this, slew of disappointing UK PMIs, witnessed earlier this week, are another bearish factor for the pound, thus adding some extra pressure on the pair this Friday. On the data front, today the BoE Governor M.Carney will deliver his speech, while the US will release key data from the labor market, which both will be able to set up pair’s further direction during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair was trading back and forth within the 107.00-45 range during this Asia, struggling to find a direction. Earlier today the pair received notable bearish impetus, having tested the level of 107.00, on the back of intensifying fears of a trade war between the US and China. According to the latest news headlines, the President's administration made the announcement, that Donald Trump is considering additional tariffs against China, accusing it of unfairly obtaining American intellectual property. However, the pair managed to regain its bid tone and recovered some part of its losses, as US bulls are not ready to give up yet. Meanwhile, it is expected that the pair will remain under pressure during the final trading session of the week on the back of improved demand for safety, which is additionally underpinned by upcoming risky NFP data. Besides the US employment report, investors will also pay attention to Fed Chair J.Powell’s speech, which is expected in NA afternoon.

The NZD/USD pair trades with a bearish bias for the second day in a row, having refreshed its intraday lows at 0.7255 spot, as the market witnessed another swing in risk sentiment. The renewed demand for safety become one of the main drivers in Asian due to the announcement of the White House, saying that Mr.Trump is seeking additional tariffs against China. This news has reignited market’s fears of a potential trade war between the US and China, thus weighing on the high-yielding Kiwi. Moreover, softer tone on the commodity market, especially around oil prices, also contributes to pair’s decline lately. In the day ahead, all traders’ attention will remain glued to the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will be able to spark some volatility during the NA session.

Major events of the day:

US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)

US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

BoE Governor’s M.Carney Speech – 18.15 (GMT +3)

Fed Chair J.Powell’s Speech – 20.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD S. 1.2177 R. 1.2321

USDJPY S. 106.40 R. 107.98

GBPUSD S. 1.3891 R. 1.4153

USDCHF S. 0.9581 R. 0.9665