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Tuesday, April 3rd
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Tuesday and corrected above the level of 1.2300 after yesterday’s drawdown to the level of 1.2282. The renewed retreat of the US dollar, which is explained by escalation of the conflict between the US and China, remains the main theme across the market, allowing the pair to recover its positions. Moreover, broad risk aversion is another positive factor, which supports the pair somewhat this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today the EU calendar will bring us slew of local PMI reports, while the US will offer investors several Fedspeaks, which expectedly won’t have significant effect on the pair, so widespread market trend will remain as the key driver for pair after Easter holiday.
The GBP/USD pair managed to protect its positions above its psychological support of 1.4000 during long Easter weekend and now continues to trade with a bullish bias. The main reason of pair’s bullish tone could be called broad weakness of the US dollar, triggered by increasing fears of a potential trade war between the US and China after China retaliated with tariffs on a wide array of American-made goods. However, further upside of the pair looks limited, as markets give preference to more safety assets in conditions of widespread risk-off sentiment, boosted by the same fears of a trade war. On the data front, today traders’ attention will remain glued to the UK manufacturing data, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory this Tuesday on a par with broad market trend.
The AUD/USD pair caught fresh wave of bids in Asia, despite uninformative outcome of the RBA meeting. Earlier this session, the RBA meeting took place, where the regulator matched market’s expectations and left its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. Moreover, the Bank delivered the same comments, as we heard after the previous meeting, saying that the inflation is likely to remain low for some time, therefore the Bank would continue to adhere to the accommodative monetary policy. As a result, investors mostly ignored the outcome of the RBA meeting, so broad market sentiment, backed by subdued US dollar dynamics, was the main driving factor for the pair during this Asia, allowing it to recover from the area of its 4-month lows, marked on the level of 0.7650 in the second half of the last week. However, further upside of the pair looks unlikely, as renewed risk aversion, triggered by escalation of the US-China conflict, may limit further recovery of higher-yielding Aussie. In absence of any important economic releases this Tuesday the widespread trend will remain the key driver for the pair.
The USD/JPY pair corrected higher to the level of 106.00 this morning, having recovered its positions after yesterday’s drawdown. Lately, market attention remains turned to the ongoing conflict between the US and China, which was recently boosted by China’s response with a set of tariffs on US goods. This development sparked fresh demand for safety, as it brings us closer to a potential trade war, thus providing support to the Japanese yen. Moreover, risk-off sentiment could accelerate in the week ahead, as we are heading towards US payrolls, which will be released this Friday. However, today the US economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the widespread trend will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2245 R. 1.2373
USDJPY S. 105.20 R. 106.78
GBPUSD S. 1.3986 R. 1.4106
USDCHF S. 0.9503 R. 0.9589
AUDUSD S. 0.7622 R. 0.7714
NZDUSD S. 0.7182 R. 0.7256
USDCAD S. 1.2825 R. 1.2987
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