How will US GDP fare at the 8th time of asking?

28 June 2016, 19:29
Sherif Hasan

The US has another crack at picking a number for its Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT

Despite closing off Q2 this week, the US is still trying to get Q1 data right.

The last showing of 0.8% GDP is expected to rise to 1.0% in the final reading. Consumer spending stayed at 1.9% in the last revision despite expectations for a jump to 2.1% last time. The market is looking for a tick up to 2.0%

On the inflation front, Q1 Core PCE is expected to hold at 2.1%

The numbers shouldn't really bring much of a market move, being such old hat, but if there are any big variations we could see the buck make a move. If I had to pick numbers that would elicit any moves it would be;

  • GDP over 1.0% or dropping to less than 0.7%
  • Consumption 2.3% or more, or less than 1.7%
  • PCE 2.4% or more, or less than 1.9%

Even on that I wouldn't go expecting any huge moves unless the numbers are mind blowing.

US consumer confidence for Jun will be the bigger release today. We're expecting a rise to 93.3 from 92.6 in May. That's at 14.00 GMT

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