US April Nonfarm: Labor Market to Lose its Lustre - TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that as domestic momentum continues to
slow, the fallout is expected to begin showing up in the labor market,
with the pace of employment growth slowing to 188K in April.
“This will represent a step down from the relatively brisk 215K pace the month before and comes despite the improvement seen in weekly jobless claims and US household’s labor market sentiment. The slowdown in jobs growth is expected to be driven by further declines in manufacturing and mining payrolls, while the growth in the countercyclical government and education sectors should slow.
Meanwhile, continued buoyancy in the cyclical leisure and hospitality sectors, and in professional services should continue to underpin the 178K gain in private sector employment, though job growth in the construction sector should slow markedly.
The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 5.0% as a further influx into the labor force offsets the gains in household employment. Wage growth should be relatively buoyant, posting a solid 0.4% m/m gain due to favorable calendar effects, pushing the annual pace of average hourly earnings growth to 2.5% y/y from 2.3% y/y.”