BoC and US Retail Sales in Focus - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the North American session features
US retail sales and PPI, the Bank of Canada meeting, and the Beige Book
later in the session.
“After yesterday’s unexpected 6.2 mln barrel oil build according to API, the official DOE estimate will be anxiously awaited. US headline retail sales may be dampened by softer auto sales, but excluding autos, a 0.4% gain is expected. The GDP component is expected to be up 0.4%. If true, this would be the best reading since last November. The much smaller than expected rise in import prices reported yesterday warns of the risk of a soft PPI report, but the retail sales data is more important. Retail sales are about 40% of US household consumption, which in turn is roughly 70% of GDP.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Its economic assessment is more the focus. Recent data has bene encouraging, and the central bank’s outlook may be lifted. However, the strength of the Canadian dollar has much good news discounted.”