Brent crude has broken below a key level, the low from 15 March at 38.32, taking it through the bottom end of a trend channel. Combined with sitting at the 100DMA at 37.24 and then potential to move below the 50DMA at 36.54, the technical setup for the oil market isn't looking great. Interestingly the correlation with the USD has been weakening recently, suggesting that dovish Fed speak causing any further declines in the USD may now have limited upside for oil. Today we find that Saudi Arabia has banned Iran oil from being shipped via its waters, another sign of the worries about transfer of oil trade market share. Any hopes for an oil output freeze to be announced at the 17 April OPEC meeting are diminishing by the day making oil-related currencies weaken. Looking at the price action, we see USDCAD breaking higher and RUB losing ground as oil & commodities give up some of the recent gains. AUD has held on relatively with RBA refraining from a rate cut for now. Gold has moved higher but is nowhere close to an uptrend yet, Asian Emerging Markets currencies have all lost ground and the recent trends have turned into a somewhat sideways price action. EMEA Emerging Markets had performed well yesterday, with ZAR and TRY leading the way but we see profit taking on that side as well, all gains are given back. JPY strength has been the highlight of the week so far, 110.67 was a key level to watch for USDJPY and now it has been broken at least on an intraday basis. This morning's headline that the BoJ, MoF and FSA are meeting to discuss market developments failed to spur a USDJPY rally as the Topix continues to underperform other Asian equity markets.
