Go On Then, Sell Sterling If You Must - Socgen
Kit Juckes, analyst at Societe Generale explained that if the broad dollar correction hasn't ended yet, and the US jobs data aren't driving the Treasury market anywhere in particular, what are we going to look at?
"The US sees March FOMC minutes and a bunch of Fed speakers. They may have a dovish bias but is it more dovish than the market now expects? Probably dovish enough not to help the dollar much. The only US data of note is the non-manufacturing ISM.
The most exciting data could come from the Chinese FX reserves release, but you'd have to guess that they will be ‘OK'. The RBA will surely be on hold, European news is very second division. But there's always ‘Brexit'.
The fall-out from the current account data hasn't ended and the ‘Remain' campaign is still busy telling us that the world will end if the UK leaves the EU. A negative campaign is and for the pound and a near GBP100bn current account deficit is scary.
Since it owes much to 25 huge multinationals' cashflow decisions and a lot to weaker oil prices, I'm loathe to overstate the importance of the data, but the more I write and talk about the quirks of the data, the more people, just tell me the UK balance of payments are horrific. I can't see sentiment for sterling improving."
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