Fed minutes to provide guidance on rate outlook - Lloyds

Fed minutes to provide guidance on rate outlook - Lloyds

1 April 2016, 20:38
Vasilii Apostolidi
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Analysts from Lloyds Bank expect that the FOMC minutes from the March meeting (to be released on Wednesday) to provide signals on whether the majority really intended to signal greater reluctance to raise interest rates. 


“In a quiet week for new economic data market attention will continue to be on comments from central bank speakers. Several speeches by US monetary policy makers are scheduled for the coming week, along with the release of the minutes of the last Fed policy meeting in March (Wed).”

“As the unexpectedly ‘dovish’ tone of the statement released after that meeting helped to kick-off the recent slide in the dollar, the more detailed minutes will be read closely by investors. In particular they may provide an indication whether the majority on the Committee really intended to signal greater reluctance to raise interest rates. To what extent concerns about international uncertainties such as China and financial market uncertainty remain front and center will be of particular interest, as will any further information about what policy makers will be focusing on before deciding when to move next.”

“We continue to think that a June rate hike has a high probability but look for further guidance from the Fed on what will cause them to move.”

“Of particular interest amongst various Fed speakers will be a round table (Thu) between current Fed Chair Yellen and her three predecessors. As past Fed Chairs are reluctant to weigh in on the immediate policy outlook this may not tell us much about when the timing of the next interest rate move. However, it will likely cover important medium term issues such as at level interest rates will eventually settle.”

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