AUD/USD: the risks of the real estate market. Overview and Trading Recommendations
In its report today and the forecast for financial stability in the near
future RB of Australia expressed concerns about
the situation in the real estate market.
The increase in the cost of housing, the volume of construction and planned
construction of apartment buildings, the price of building plots pose downside
risks in mortgage lending, which in turn, creates the conditions for lower
interest rates in the country to make the cheaper cost of mortgage lending.
However, the main risks to the economy bears the economic slowdown in China, as
the largest trading partner and consumer of commodities from Australia.
Recent data on China's foreign trade provided by the customs agency of the
country, showed a general decline in turnover in September. Since exports were
down 1.1% compared with the same period of last August, after falling by 5.5%,
China's imports in September fell by 17.7 %% at the forecast reduction of 15%.
The next meeting of the RBA with the consideration of the prospects of interest
rate in the country will be held on November 3.
If the Fed a little earlier, on October 28 will delay raising interest rates in
the United States, the Government of Australia and the RBA may be faced with
the need for further easing of monetary policy in the country to sustain its
economy and export component of revenue.
While there are downside risks to the Chinese economy and the decline in world commodity prices, with AUD / USD will remain under pressure, not excluding short-term correction amid falling value of the US dollar when entering negative data from this country.
