TrueCycle

TrueCycle highlights the cycle of the specified period. The oversold and overbought levels are statistically determined. The indicator ranges from lows to highs and back again. Sell from the highs, buy from the lows. With TrueCycle, you can make accurate trending trades and accurate counter-trending trades.

The indicator is very easy to use

Only 1 parameter

period - the period of the cycle. The default is 30. A good value is also 120. It is recommended to specify a value slightly less than the natural or derived periods.

The display

is in buffer order, the indicator displays 4 lines:

median - gray line, the average between high and low

high - blue color line, cycle at HIGH prices

low - red line, LOW price cycle

control - green line, smoothed median value

Levels

For convenience, the indicator calculates daily data statistics and displays levels:

typical - the typical median value

+80%,-80% - percentile 80, the main time of the indicator line is between these levels

"reverse DN" and "reverse UP" are the levels beyond which a reversal is most likely.

Trading according to the trend

Trend purchases are made when the "low" line touches or crosses the "reverse" level, and then the "high" crosses the "control" from bottom to top. 

Another option is to buy when the "control" line is reversed beyond +-80%.

The reversal of the "control" line in the right direction is a confirmation sign.

Choose the most convenient option for you and suitable for your instruments and periods.

Counter-trend trading

Open counter-trend trades when you turn beyond the "reverse" levels. If you are using grids (griders), open the grid when you reach a solid "reverse" line and close it when you return to the typical value.

An alternative counter-trend signal is the touch of the "control" line at level 80

The higher-order trend

If the "typical" value is greater than 0, it means that the historical (over the period of calculating statistics) trend of the highest order is upward.

The location of the "+-80%" levels relative to 0 also indicates its direction.

A significant asymmetry of the levels will indicate the instability of the trend and the presence of sudden impulses.

General recommendations

For entry accuracy, use 2 or even 3 TrueCycle indicators with different periods at the same time. I use periods of 30,120 and sometimes even 10 and 240

Check the signals with related and allied instruments. The signals must be consistent and have no obvious contradictions. 

Take into account the data of the senior time frame