Kayode Michael Oyetunde / Профиль

This article presents a live MQL5 indicator for monitoring portfolio risk concentration through eigenvalue decomposition. The indicator calculates rolling covariance statistics for three instruments using persistent prefix sums, aligns price data by timestamp, handles missing observations, and plots the dominant eigenvalue as a percentage of total portfolio variance. The implementation provides a practical way to observe changes in portfolio risk concentration as the covariance structure evolves over time.

Implements the Lo–MacKinlay Variance Ratio Test in MQL5 to assess serial dependence via random‑walk variance scaling. Provides a reusable CVarianceRatio class with classical (homoskedasticity) and heteroskedasticity‑robust statistics, plus a script that scans multiple horizons and logs VR and Z‑values. Shows how to embed the test in an Expert Advisor as a statistical gate for mean‑reversion logic.

A complete MQL5 implementation of the Ljung-Box test helps verify independence in trading data and fitted-model residuals. It computes sample autocorrelations, the Q statistic over selected horizons, degrees of freedom with user-controlled adjustments, and right-tail p-values via the regularized incomplete gamma function. Run it on returns, deal outcomes, or external residuals and review decisions directly in the Experts tab.

We turn eigenvalues from a covariance matrix into a normalized spectral‑entropy score that measures how evenly variance is spread across factors. SpectralEntropyCalculator.mq5 compares two portfolios in one run, using native vector summation, ArraySort()-based ordering, element‑wise division, and the Shannon entropy formula. The report makes dominant factors visible and enables quick, repeatable checks of diversification quality.

Net profit and win rate do not tell you if a strategy's edge is statistically real. This MQL5 toolkit analyzes return series built from price data or deal history and reports t‑statistics, p‑values, and confidence intervals using one-sample and Welch t‑tests, the Mann–Whitney U test, and volatility‑regime analysis to support evidence‑based trading decisions.

This article performs a numerical verification of MQL5 eigendecomposition for a covariance matrix using the spectral theorem A = V Λ Vᵀ. It reconstructs the matrix with Diag(), Transpose(), and MatMul(), computes the residual and its Frobenius norm, and shows that deviations remain at floating‑point precision, with results printed to the Experts journal.

In Part 2, we introduce a reusable CCovarianceMatrix class that computes and stores a covariance matrix from raw return series using MQL5's native Cov() method. We verify symmetry, print a labeled matrix grid, and call Eig() to obtain eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Readers see how symbols co-move and which factors drive variance, enabling clearer portfolio diagnostics and reuse in scripts or EAs.

В статье описан воспроизводимый метод оценки риска портфеля из нескольких символов с использованием матриц MQL5 и OpenBLAS. В ней рассматриваются расчет логарифмических доходностей, построение ковариационной матрицы и вычисление wᵀΣw вместо суммирования отдельных дисперсий. Полностью готовый скрипт выводит для сравнения наивную и истинную оценки волатильности, а также вклад перекрестных членов, позволяя выявить случаи, когда коррелирующие инструменты увеличивают рисковую экспозицию сверх оценок для отдельных активов.