EURO – Will Take its Cue from the U.S. Dollar

EURO – Will Take its Cue from the U.S. Dollar

13 junho 2016, 04:20
Anderson de Carvalho Manilha Braga

Data Review

  • EZ Q1 GDP Revised to 0.6% vs. 0.5% Previous

  • German Factory Orders -2% vs. 2.6% Previous
  • German Industrial Production 0.8% vs. -1.1% Previous
  • German Trade Balance 25.6B vs. 26.2B Previous

Data Preview

  • Eurozone Industrial Production – Improvement expected given rise in German and French Industrial Production
  • Eurozone Trade Balance – Weakness expected given lower German and French trade balance
  • Eurozone CPI – Will have to see what French data looks like but inflation in Germany increased

Key Levels

  • Support 1.1150
  • Resistance 1.1450

The euro also remained under pressure after rejecting 1.14. Unlike the U.K. and the U.S., the Eurozone has very little market moving data on the calendar, which means the performance of euro will be determined by the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars. The Eurozone industrial production, trade balance and consumer price reports scheduled for release rarely trigger more than a hiccup in the currency. Earlier this week ECB President Draghi made it clear that he has no immediate plans to increase stimulus as they just began their corporate bond-buying program on June 8th and will start TLTRO June 22nd. It should be no surprise that European policymakers want to save their bullets in case Britain votes to leave the European Union and financial markets respond violently so between now and then, they won’t overstress the need for more stimulus. That means EUR/USD will most likely take its cue from the German – U.S. yield spread. The Swiss National Bank meets as well – no changes are expected but the SNB may share their concerns about Brexit and their frustration with the recent appreciation of their currency.


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