Account Risk Xray

Account Risk Xray

Bought an Expert Advisor and want to know whether it is actually working? 

This utility reads the closed trade history on your account and reports what the result is made of.

1. Payoff versus win rate. Every payoff ratio implies a minimum win rate needed to break even. A system with an average win of 2.76 and an average loss of 7.88 needs 74.1% winners. If it delivers 68%, it is losing money while looking healthy. The tool computes the required rate from your own trades and shows the gap.

2. Position size after losses. It measures directly what share of losing trades were followed by a materially larger position. This is the mechanism behind equity curves that rise smoothly and then end abruptly.

3. Closed loss versus floating loss. Balance drawdown counts only what was realised. Equity drawdown includes what is still open. When the second is much larger than the first, losses are being carried rather than closed. The report also states how long it has been watching, and withholds a verdict until it has watched long enough to have one.

4. Cost sensitivity. Commission and swap are the one input that will not improve. The report recalculates the result with costs widened by a configurable percentage, separating genuine edge from a favourable cost assumption.

5. Streaks. Longest losing and winning runs, largest single loss, largest single win.

What it does not do

It places no orders and never will. It gives no entry or exit signals. It makes no forecast and no claim about future results.

It reports arithmetic on trades that have already closed.

Notes

Works with any broker, any symbol and any Expert Advisor, including ones you did not write. Scope is chosen from a dropdown: all trades, one symbol, one Expert Advisor, or one Expert Advisor on one symbol. Period is chosen the same way.

Commission and swap are included in every calculation, so a trade that closes at +1.00 with -3.00 commission is counted as the loss it is. Balance operations are excluded from trade statistics. No DLL calls. An optional report can be saved to the terminal Files folder, either as a summary or with the full trade list as CSV, so every figure can be rechecked in a spreadsheet.

Questions

Does it trade?

No. It contains no order functions at all.

Will it tell me whether my Expert Advisor is profitable?

No, and no tool can. It tells you what the existing result is made of: whether the payoff and win rate are compatible, whether position size escalates after losses, whether losses are closed or carried, and how much of the result depends on current costs.

Does it work with Expert Advisors I bought from someone else?

Yes. It reads standard trade history and does not need access to the other program.

Does it work with manual trading?

Yes. Set the scope to all trades on the account.

I have no trade history yet. Can I still check that it works?

Yes. Set "Verify: run built-in tests" to true. It runs nine cases with known answers and uses no account data.

What does break-even win rate mean?

The percentage of winning trades required to break even given your average win and average loss. If your average win is 2.76 and average loss is 7.88, you need 7.88 / (2.76 + 7.88) = 74.1% winners. Below that, the system loses even though most trades win.

Why is a trade that closed at +1.00 counted as a loss?

Because commission and swap are real money. A trade closing at +1.00 with -3.00 commission cost you 2.00. Counting it as a win inflates the win rate and hides the problem the report exists to find.

Does it modify my trades or settings?

No. It only reads.

Does it need DLLs or an internet connection?

Neither.

Is there an MT5 version?

In preparation.