Keelmark Wave Gauge MT5

Keelmark Wave Gauge - where the current wave stands, and what waves on your chart did next

Keelmark Wave Gauge follows the current price wave and shows it in plain words: which way it goes, how far it has travelled, how long it has been running, how much it has given back, and how straight the last bars pushed with it. A second table counts on the history of your own chart how often price went on with the wave by a fixed distance before turning against it by the same distance. The indicator describes; it does not give buy or sell signals.

WHAT IS A WAVE

A wave is one leg of a close-based zigzag. A wave ends when a bar closes back by Reversal x ATR (default 3) from the wave's extreme close; the opposite wave starts there. Every distance is measured in ATR, so the same settings work on forex, gold, indices and crypto, on any timeframe.

THE PANEL

• Wave - direction of the current wave (up / down).
• Size - distance from the wave start to the current close, in ATR, and how it compares with the waves already finished on the chart ("bigger than 83% of past waves"). Shown once the chart has 30 finished waves.
• Running - bars since the wave started.
• Pullback - how far the close is back from the wave's extreme close, in ATR. The wave turns at the Reversal value.
• Push quality - the last 20 bars: net move divided by the total path, signed to the wave. +1 = straight with the wave, 0 = sideways, below 0 = moving against it. A meter shows it from -1 (against) to +1 (with).
• Follow-through on this chart - for every closed bar of the chart's history: did price reach +2 ATR in the wave's direction before -2 ATR against it (high / low, within 150 bars)? The share is shown by push quality group (below 0, 0 to 0.4, above 0.4) and for all bars, with the number of cases n. The group of the current bar is shown in bright text. 50% = coin flip.

Every row has a tooltip with its definition. The ? button opens a short reading guide on the panel; the - button collapses the panel to one line.

ON THE CHART

• Finished waves as lines, with their size in ATR above the high / below the low of the wave end (tooltip: size and bars).
• The current wave as a coloured line from its start to the current close.
• The panel can sit in any corner, with X / Y offsets and font size. Colours follow the chart background (dark or light) or can be set to dark / light.

WHAT OUR OWN RESEARCH FOUND

Before building the indicator we measured 14 wave and trend measures (wave size, size compared with past waves, age, pullback, efficiency over 20 and 100 bars, regression R-squared and slope, acceleration, multi-timeframe agreement, distance from a regression line, ADX, volatility) on 7 design data sets and then once on 11 markets that were not used in the design (EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, DXY, ES on H1; gold, ES, crude oil, silver, 10-year notes, Bitcoin on D1).

• Wave size, age, pullback, ADX and R-squared showed no relation to whether the wave went on +2 ATR before -2 ATR.
• A model combining all 14 measures looked good on the design data and failed on the new markets.
• Push quality was the only measure that held on the new markets: about 48.5% for the lowest group and about 52% for the highest group (random about 50%). This is a small difference and not a trading system on its own; costs can take more than this.

That is why the panel shows the follow-through table for your own chart instead of a fixed promise: you can see what happened on your symbol and timeframe, with n.

INPUTS

• Wave: reversal (x ATR), ATR length, push quality length, follow-through distance (x ATR), bars of history to use.
• Chart drawing: wave lines on/off, colours and widths, wave size labels on/off, number of waves kept.
• Panel: show/hide, follow-through table on/off, corner, X / Y offset, font size, theme (auto / dark / light), meter colour, open the reading guide at start.
• Alerts (off by default, on bar close, popup and/or push notification): wave turned, push quality changed group.

FOR EA DEVELOPERS

Buffers (read with iCustom / CopyBuffer): 0 push quality (-1..+1), 1 size (ATR), 2 share of past waves smaller (0..1), 3 running (bars), 4 pullback (ATR), 5 wave direction (+1 up, -1 down, 0 none). Empty value = EMPTY_VALUE. When you pass input values to iCustom, pass an empty string "" in the place of each of the 4 input groups (Wave, Chart drawing, Panel, Alerts), or call iCustom without inputs to use the defaults.

NOTES

• Values of a closed bar do not change later. On the bar that is still forming, the values update with price until the bar closes; a wave that turns inside the forming bar is shown as a dotted line until the bar closes.
• The follow-through table uses neighbouring bars, which overlap in time, so n is larger than the number of independent cases.
• The indicator measures and counts past price. It does not open trades and gives no buy or sell signals. Past follow-through does not tell what the next wave will do.