Expectancy Finder
- エキスパート
- バージョン: 1.0
- アクティベーション: 10
Expectancy Finder is a manual execution panel for traders who want a more disciplined way to test their own strategy with consistent risk, stop distance, target R, and sample tracking.
This Expert Advisor does not predict direction and does not open trades automatically. The trader chooses BUY or SELL. The EA handles the execution framework.
The tool is designed to reduce common execution errors such as multiple overlapping entries, inconsistent risk-to-reward planning, changing position size without structure, and continuing to trade after the daily max drawdown limit is reached.
Main features:
- Manual BUY and SELL buttons
- ATR-based stop placement
- Adjustable risk percent, default 1%
- Adjustable R target from 1.5R to 10R
- Strategy sample tracking from 100 to 1000 trades
- Tracks wins, losses, win rate, total R, and expectancy in R per trade
- Shared expectancy records across instruments using the same Magic Number
- One managed trade maximum across all charts using the same Magic Number
- Account-wide daily max drawdown protection, default 10%
- Day-start equity, max drawdown, and equity stop display
- Spread filter for FX pairs, BTC, metals, crypto, and CFDs
- Auto-close protection if SL or TP is removed or changed
- RESET button with confirmation for stats-only reset
- No external DLL files required
Why one trade at a time:
Expectancy Finder allows one managed trade at a time. This keeps the sample cleaner and easier to interpret. When multiple trades are open at the same time, market exposure can become correlated, overlapping, or partially hedged, which can make strategy expectancy harder to measure. One-trade-at-a-time execution helps keep each result easier to attribute to the trader's entry process, especially on lower timeframes.
Daily max drawdown:
The default daily max drawdown is 10% and can be adjusted in the inputs. This default is intended to keep daily downside controlled, since larger percentage losses require disproportionately larger percentage gains to recover. For example, a 10% loss requires about an 11.1% gain to recover.
Daily max drawdown is measured from day-start equity. If a managed trade is already open when the broker day changes, the EA uses account equity at the new broker day as the new anchor. If no managed trade is open, the anchor is set from account equity when the first managed trade of the broker day is opened.
Manual trades outside the EA:
The EA controls only trades opened through its own BUY and SELL buttons. Manual trades opened outside the EA are not included in expectancy tracking and are not managed by the EA.
However, because daily max drawdown is based on account equity, outside manual trades can still affect the daily protection calculation while the EA is running. If outside trades reduce account equity to the equity stop level, the EA can block future EA entries. It can close its own managed trade if enabled, but it is not designed to manage unrelated manual trades opened outside the EA.
How it works:
1. Attach the EA to a chart.
2. Leave the symbol input blank to use the current chart symbol, or set a fixed symbol.
3. Choose risk percent, ATR settings, R target, sample size, spread settings, and display currency.
4. Click BUY or SELL only when your own strategy gives an entry.
5. Let the EA place SL, TP, lot size, and track the result.
Expectancy calculation:
Expectancy is calculated as total R divided by total number of trades.
Example:
40 wins at 30R = +120R
60 losses at -1R = -60R
Total result = +60R
100 trades = +0.60R per trade
Only target-hit closes count as wins. Manual closes, stop-loss closes, and protection closes are counted as losses for win-rate tracking.
RESET behavior:
The RESET button clears expectancy records only. It does not reset daily max drawdown, today's start equity, or blocked-for-today status. A confirmation message appears before records are cleared.
Important:
Daily protection requires the EA to remain attached and Algo Trading to stay enabled. Removing the EA or disabling Algo Trading prevents real-time enforcement while inactive.
Expectancy Finder is an execution and measurement tool only. It is not a signal system, prediction tool, financial advisor, account management service, or guarantee of profitability. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Test on demo first and confirm all settings with your broker before live use.
