Ema Trend Bullback
- エキスパート
- Muthukrishnan Muthupoilan
- バージョン: 6.3
- アクティベーション: 5
EMA Trend Pullback — How It Works
The Core Idea
Instead of chasing breakouts (which create many false signals), this strategy waits for the market to pull back to a key moving average during an established trend, then enters when price shows it's ready to continue.
Step-by-Step Logic
Step 1 — Determine the Trend (H4 EMA 50)
The EA looks at the 4-hour chart and checks where price is relative to the 50-period EMA:
Price above H4 EMA50 → Only look for BUY setups
Price below H4 EMA50 → Only look for SELL setups
This prevents trading against the dominant trend — the biggest cause of losses.
Step 2 — Confirm Trend on Current Chart (Fast EMA vs Entry EMA)
On the current chart, the EA checks:
Fast EMA (8) is above Entry EMA (21) → Uptrend confirmed → Look for longs
Fast EMA (8) is below Entry EMA (21) → Downtrend confirmed → Look for shorts
Both the H4 and current chart must agree before any trade is considered.
Step 3 — Wait for Pullback to EMA 21
In an uptrend, price rises but periodically pulls back. The EA waits until the candle's low touches the 21 EMA — this is the "value zone" where buyers tend to step in again.
Price going up ↑
|
| ← pullback touches EMA21 (entry zone)
_/__ ← EMA 21
Step 4 — Confirmation Candle (Engulf or Pin Bar)
The EA does NOT enter the moment price touches the EMA. It waits for the closed candle to show rejection — proof that buyers (or sellers) defended that level:
Bullish Engulf — a bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that closes above it
Hammer — a candle with a long lower wick showing strong rejection of lower prices
Step 5 — RSI Filter
RSI must be between 25–75. This avoids entering at extremes where reversals are likely and momentum is exhausted.
Step 6 — Fixed 3:1 Take Profit
Once in a trade:
Stop Loss = below the entry candle low (approx 1.2× ATR)
Take Profit = exactly 3× the stop loss distance
No partial closes. No trailing. The full position runs to the fixed TP.
Why this matters for Profit Factor:
PF = Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss
At 3:1 RR, you only need to win 34% of trades to reach PF 2.0
With proper trend + pullback + confirmation, expect 45–55% win rate → PF 2.4–3.0
