What are the ways of predicting the future in financial markets? - page 7
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Can't you read or did you just want to drop your penny?
I really don't understand when I say that forex sentiment is not something you can rely on, then I get criticised for it. Citing arguments to back my words.
Simply, there is no sentiment in forex. And there is nowhere to get them from.
There is simply no sentiment in forex. And there's no place for them to come from.
You pretend you don't understand what is meant by forex sentiment, don't you?
Or are you making fun of the way I spell"forex sentiment" in Russian?
Before trying to make predictions (which is like reading coffee grounds), it is a good idea to state the known physics and limitations:
- The intraday movement of pairs consists of "impulses" clearly timed to the opening of the markets Asia, Europe, America (in ascending order). In addition, the pairs are influenced by the geo-referencing of their currencies.
- Changes in rates on a daily/weekly basis are limited by the state regulators - if the %% of face value changes too sharply/longer, there will be different actions by the central banks.
- there can be no more than 2 pairs in each ring-tree in a "no-backward trend". In a full-bonded graph of majors, theoretically 4, practically 3
can and should be added to the list
Very controversial and questionable:
1. impulses are more likely to be "tied" not to the opening of the session, but to the timing of news and macro indicators;
2. The actions of state regulators also have their big limitations - Brexit e....ed the exchange rate so that the state regulator only squeaked softly in the corner. There are plenty of examples.
3. I don't get this at all
- The intraday movement of pairs consists of "impulses" clearly time-bound.
Long ago I created an indicator which measures the price movement and the number of ticks. This indicator shows that before the price impulse starts, there is a moment, when in pairs with positive or negative correlation(the calculation uses pairs with correlation 0.85; -0.85 and more) the number of ticks increases, but the price doesn't actually move.
As I recall, you like to watch Mood in the forex market.
Then how is it
different from these and the like?
Do you think they look at each other and find the right decision, or do they still analyse the market and only then compare their opinion with the rest of the market participants?
Everyone has the same MA
If not the MA, then the averaging, which, one way or another, is the same MA.
That's why the crowd trades the same, oddly enough.
your screenshot with the volume of purchases and sales is a perfect illustration of this
the conclusion is logical - do the opposite
Everyone's MA is the same
If it's not a MA, it's an average, which is the same MA anyway.
so the crowd trades the same, oddly enough.
This is probably true as the vast majority trade with standard indicators with default settings.
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What are the ways to predict the future in financial markets?
Lilita Bogachkova, 2022.02.07 15:48
If we're talking about the mood on the Forex market.
Then here is an example of EURUSD with its mood readings, which include the number and volume of trades as well as average buy and sell prices.
As you can see, EURUSD traders are losing on average, at the moment. But the indicator with technical analysis indicates completely different buy and sell levels, which were significantly different from the open trades of the average trader. I am not trying to prove anything to anyone, only pointing out that forex market sentiment is not a convincing tool.