What are the ways of predicting the future in financial markets? - page 2
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Herczyk's trading strategy, it predicts the exchange rate very successfully
Trade the present and the big uncles will take care of the future.
The present is one point
Yes, of course.
In a year you will be a year older.
Not a fact.
)) You make me laugh, but you got that right.
I can't, I'm laughing ))))
Not a fact.
A bit gloomy...
What I said above was not a joke, but implied a sequel. Here it is.
You know, there used to be a factory in Moscow called Serp i Molot, I don't know what they made, but it was very large and on Taganka. Naturally, it has now disappeared somewhere.
People used to joke: "How many workshops does the plant have? ", the answer was: "Three - Sickle, Hammer and Assembly. "
My point is that there are also three types of projections: price, time and assembly.
Here (on the Forum in general) only the first variant is considered and completely adventurous attempts are made to consider the third, bypassing the second.
Is there such a thing?
By the way, there's also a sequel, but it's already optional.
Is the future even predictable in any way?
Not a fact.
Why not a fact? Fact, there is no word in the forecast about breathing or not. Lenin, too, gets a year older every year.
By predicting the financial markets you descend to the level of a weather forecast, and now to the main point.
To work in the market it is enough to get up before the trend starts (of course in the direction of the trend) and earn money, but how do you do it? You do not need to try to predict it (the market), it is enough to adequately read the current situation in the context of the causal model of price formation in the market. If you know the reason why the price has changed or should change, then for you the work on the market will be as simple as two times five (I can prove it). The rest of the model consists of the following elements!!!!
Market expectations ->Trading OI, Delta, Volume (according to market expectations or not) ->Change price (according to price pro-ration and expectation) ->Change indicator values (built on price).
Conclusions: if you trade with indicators, you are at the end of the train, but even trading with Market Expectations (options traders) you will never be in the lead, the errors will be much less in trading, but they will still happen, because option traders make as many mistakes as we do, stop traders, but their error is much more expensive, because they have a much better market analysis and for the average player, they are like a flag indicating the wind direction, the main thing is to correctly assess the direction of this flag and detect time changes in its direction.
Otherwise, good luck to all, brothers, because our profession, though it is the rarest, but at the same time, it is the most intellectual. And if you have been counted among the community of traders, then you are not a fool, be proud of it, but do not get too conceited, because the market can punish the toughest trader and does not blink an eyelid.......