How is the viability of a trade idea determined? - page 11
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Alternatively, when testing a promising idea there should be trades when, after the opening, the price quickly goes towards the opening and the profit rushes into the sky. Immediately, without entering the "stop" zone. And these deals should be numerous, not just one in five years. In this case, we may assume that something worthwhile has been found. Then, one may try to separate good deals from bad ones, to filter them.
The test does not necessarily have to be positive. That is the formally good system can be even lossmaking in the test because of the "preponderance" of bad trades. The main thing is that there must be some promising deals "inside" the system that can be filtered later. And it would be better if all this would happen on all instruments available for testing.
Here are the two main points - there are good deals and they are more or less evenly within the whole test period on all the instruments/periods. Even if almost all the instruments show losses or small profits and even if equity charts are ugly, it does not matter at the initial stage. There are just a lot of noisy trades, the chart chattering, sometimes accidentally taking profits and sometimes taking losses.
(During tests, on some timeframes/instruments, the equity chart may even turn out beautiful by accident. But it has happened this way, it does not mean that the system has been designed for this symbol and timeframe. It just turned out to be temporary and accidental. How many people have been misled by it, because it is in fact a "random coincidence" and they are trying to find it by combining, testing and optimizing).
There is no sense at all in measuring sharps, profit factors and being horrified or enjoying equity. It's probably impossible to come up with such "parameters" at all that allow one to understand from a test whether one has "found" or not. You cannot see a "diamond" in such a way but it is easy to trash it. Trading is for the assiduous :))) Although, I certainly understand and heartily approve the desire to outsource the routine work to the "machine".
but a stop loss triggered by force majeure is wow ! even the term "force majeure protection" is pretty damn good
Usually, force majeure in the market is a sharp movement against the trend, and even with a big gap... In this case, even a stop loss may not work because of the gap...
But fortunately, there are more effective mechanisms against force majeure.
Testing the strategy over a long period is exactly what allows you to get confidence in the strategy against force majeure actions.
You're a hell of a magician, you're damn right. A good TS is one in which you are always in the plus. Each signal has an opening price and you need to monitor how long the price spends in plus or minus relative to your position. And the more time you're in the plus, the better the strategy. IMHO!!!!!
Now that's an interesting observation!
It is interesting that everyone knows how to talk "beautifully", but no one has at least one signal on a real account.
Show us your break-even real trading. Who shows you will get $10 for your WebMoney purse :)
You can stay with your opinion. But do not present your opinion as the absolute truth.
See
Don't take money that is so important to you away from your family, buy something useful for the house, or give your kids something sweet to eat.
What does it mean to have a good or promising IDEA?
Such an IDEA must fulfil the main function of its purpose.
The main purpose of a trading strategy is to make a STABLE PROFIT...
STABLE PROFIT means a large number of positive trades...
A POSITIVE trade is a RIGHT entry into a position and a MUST, RIGHT exit from the position.
Thus, a good IDEA is a combination of the RIGHT entry + exit... in large numbers...