Uladzimir Izerski page - page 31

 
Mihail Marchukajtes:
That's a bright idea lately. But who am I to be listened to. Ah yes "Teacher" but that's not the word these days....

Yes, I wrote to you at the very beginning of this thread that I also thought it was the right thing to do.

But you must be reading through the lines or have a bad memory.

 
I hope that my sketch above does not go in vain for the market pioneers. I really hope so. I would like to surround myself with professionals rather than pseudoscientists. You stop developing among them... if you ask me...
 
Mihail Marchukajtes:
Convincing is the answer in this thread. Even if it is in the form of your screenshot. Although I may not be right in general, but something tells me that no. Maybe my trading history is to blame... Good luck...

What screenshot? You quote the link yourself, it says in black and white by the CME helpdesk: Futures markets and prices are derived from cash (spot) markets. Isn't this enough for you? I unfortunately can't arrange for Soros to call you personally and confirm everything.

Let's go by definition. There is an underlying asset (master) and there is a derivative (slave). With few exceptions, the derivative asset is always cointegrated with the base one, it tails behind it. Let's dance around the volume in order to operate with specific numbers. About this, I hope we do not have to argue that where there is more volume, that market is the main one? Half of the volume of the entire foreign exchange market is accounted for by the cls group (exchange system, which includes 80 of the largest banks in the world, a detailed list of participants is available here https://www.cls-group.com/media/2471/cls-group-shareholders-list-august-1-2018.docx). Their daily volume is $1.5 trillion, multiplied by two, we get a total daily volume of 3 trillion. The FX volume of the CME section is ~50 billion, 300000000$/50000000000$=60. 60 times the difference in volume between the spot market and the CME exchange. It's obvious which one is the daddy.

 
vladavd:

What screenshot? You quote the link yourself, it says in black and white by the CME helpdesk: Futures markets and prices are derived from cash (spot) markets. Isn't this enough for you? I unfortunately can't arrange for Soros to call you personally and confirm everything.

Let's go by definition. There is an underlying asset (master) and there is a derivative (slave). With few exceptions, the derivative asset is always cointegrated with the base one, it tails behind it. Let's dance around the volume in order to operate with specific numbers. About this, I hope we do not have to argue that where there is more volume, that market is the main one? Half of the volume of the entire foreign exchange market is accounted for by the cls group (exchange system, which includes 80 of the largest banks in the world, a detailed list of participants is available here https://www.cls-group.com/media/2471/cls-group-shareholders-list-august-1-2018.docx). Their daily volume is $1.5 trillion, multiplied by two, we get a total daily volume of 3 trillion. The FX section of the CME is ~50 billion, 300000000$/50000000000$=60. 60 times the difference in volume between the spot market and the CME exchange. It's obvious which one is the daddy.

All true but only with SME I can get data that is not available from the SPOT market, namely Delta, Open Interest, Volatility Smile. Which is an engine for price. And what can you get from the SPOT market? Tick volume and that's it. So good luck to you with this information. Meet you on the battlefield as they say....
 
Mihail Marchukajtes:
All true but only with SME I can get data which is not available from SPOT market, namely Delta, Open Interest, Volatility Smile. Which is an engine for price. And what can you get from the SPOT market? Tick volume and that's it. So good luck to you with this information. Meet you on the battlefield as they say....

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One thing I don't get: why are you guys arguing about who's in charge? And why are you fighting amongst yourselves? Everyone is free to have their own point of view on any issue. You make your point, that's it. And don't go picking on someone who thinks otherwise...

In fact, I suggest that this thread be renamed the CLEANFLOOD page. There is virtually nothing of substance.

 
Mihail Marchukajtes:
All true, but only with CME can I get data that is not available from the SPOT market, namely Delta, Open Interest, Volatility Smile. Which is an engine for price. And what can you get from the SPOT market? Tick volume and that's it. So good luck to you with this information. Meet you on the battlefield as they say....

A smile of volatility?

This is the first I've heard of it.

Can you elaborate on that?

 
Mihail Marchukajtes:
All true, but only from the CME can I get data that is not available from the SPOT market, namely Delta, Open Interest, Volatility Smile. Which is an engine for price. And what can you get from the SPOT market? Tick volume and that's it. So good luck to you with this information. Meet you on the battlefield as they say....

Well you're just changing the subject now. What were you saying? That the spot market is secondary and takes prices from the stock exchange. I have provided you with proof that this is not the case, but exactly the opposite.

The fact that there is no data from the interbank (in fact there is, but very expensive and not for mere mortals) and the only real alternative is data from the CME - well, no one is arguing with that.

 
vladavd:

Well you're just changing the subject now. What were you saying? That the spot market is secondary and takes prices from the stock exchange. I have provided you with proof that this is not the case, but exactly the opposite.

The fact that there is no data from the interbank (in fact there is, but very expensive and not for mere mortals) and the only real alternative is data from the CME - well, no one is arguing with that.

If SME data were a consequence and not a reason for the price, then it wouldn't be relevant. Simply useless. What you cite does not sound like conclusive evidence. Everyone is wrong, including me.
 
Сергей Таболин:

One thing I don't get: why are you guys arguing about who's in charge? And why are you fighting amongst yourselves? Everyone is free to have their own point of view on any issue. You make your point, that's it. And don't go picking on someone who thinks otherwise...

In fact, I suggest that this thread be renamed the CLEANFLOOD page. There is practically nothing on the merits.

If the point of view contradicts the facts, then why is it so? It is already a delusion, not a point of view. There can be nothing substantive in this thread, it is designed for trolling, puffing up cheeks and putting up fog. As priest, so comes parish.

Mihail Marchukajtes:
If data from the CME were a consequence and not the reason for the price, it would not be relevant. Simply useless. What you have cited is little more than irrefutable proof. Everyone makes mistakes, including myself.

What exactly are the claims about the evidence?

The data from SME is relevant to forex, because futures is a liquid and cointegrated market with forex. But it is still a derivative market, not a primary market.

Reason: