From theory to practice - page 602
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You need to do some kind of transformation over the price.
That's just what kind of conversion, one would need to know.
I was already thinking maybe to read the sum of increments of some process memory indicator (maybe Hearst or some correlation), then it would be something like lower channel break wait for memory return, upper channel wait for no memory.
Right. There is one question. Identify a flat in time. Try to do it. If you do, consider the money you'll make. The problem is this. As the market is 98% random it is almost infinitely versatile. So if anyone has a specific implementation of defining a flat, please post the results. Since there's practice here... for example in my trading it's a real scourge. Every two or three weeks I have to look at a lot of charts and analyze them by eye. Whether there are global periodic fluctuations or not.
It is not a "straightforward" statement to understand, it means that it is difficult to see some things for the result of the price itself, you need to do some conversion of the price to see the necessary effects, and they are, I assure you.
Your confidence is based on:
- Personal experience of successful trading?
- Rigorous mathematical calculation?
- Opinion of others?
- The "I think so" principle?
Or is that a guess rather than a certainty after all?
Your confidence is based on:
- Personal experience of successful trading?
- Rigorous mathematical calculation?
- Opinion of others?
- The "I think so" principle?
Or is it a guess rather than a certainty after all?
What is your opinion on your questions? What is your answer?
Mine: Is there something about the price, is there something about the price, anyway, apart from the price we have no other information and no other choice.
Your confidence is based on:
- Personal experience of successful trading?
- Rigorous mathematical calculation?
- Opinion of others?
- The "I think so" principle?
On simple logic - if there is a price swing of several times the spread, then that is the fish to catch...
What is your opinion on your questions? What is your answer to them?
My option is the last one - I dare only speculate...
And is it true that the gist of 600 pages of this grail tossing is as follows:
Looking for a magic mathematical formula for SUP and RES lines running roughly as in the figure:
The price, hypnotized by the beauty of the mathematical constructions, is simply obliged to rush between red and green, carried away by the flows of drift, random wanderings, Erlang,
quantiles, all kinds of distributions. All this should fill bags (wallets, pockets, credit card accounts) with a flood of green and/or wood.
But all theoretical contrivances are so time-consuming, that it is still unreasonable to attach the already constructed grail at least to a demo account.
Is everything correct? The matter is correct? Nothing is missing?
:-)
I looked at the 100% probability quantile for the sliding window = 8 hours for GBPUSD:
Crazy... In other words, over time we "see" a rampant change in the price probability density function (I emphasize - price, not the sum of increments), when the quantile of 100% level, covering 100% of quotes in the sliding window changes from 1 (actually all data is inside the standard deviation) to 5.5.
It is time to reel in the rods.
Leave two rods (M1;M5):
One for a series of virtual prices, when gaps are excluded, and instead of a gap (abnormal bar size) to the prices is added (subtracted) delta equal to the size of the gap, instead of the excluded gap is a bar the size of the average atr before the gap.
The second is for a number of gaps without the rest of the prices.
I don't think so.
Is this correct? Is the essence correct? Nothing is missing?
:-)
Almost. If we draw the MA around the centre, the price will really have to move from one side of the channel to the other. The only question that remains to be solved is whether the price moves or the channel follows the price. And then...
Now we only have to add some oil (i.e. to divide a trend-flat) and the happiness mill will work.